Gennady Golovkin vs. Steve Rolls
Saturday, June 08, 2019 – 11:00 PM EDT
Free Pick: GGG wins in rounds 4-6
Best Odds: +188 (William H.)
Although few gave Ruiz any shot at beating Joshua, even fewer are giving Rolls a chance in hell at toppling the hard hitting Golovkin and disrupting the Kazakh’s goal of landing a third fight with Canelo in September. And the oddsmakers reflect this train of thought by setting Rolls as much as a +2530 underdog to GGG sitting between -3500 (Bookmaker) and an utterly ridiculous -25000 (BetDSI). But that doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on this fight as prop bets are where it’s at.
This fight is tricky for a couple of reasons: GGG is with a new trainer and Rolls hasn’t faced an opponent in the same stratosphere as Golovkin in the talent department.
Golovkin ditching Abel Sanchez in favor of Johnathan Banks could signal that GGG is aiming to try out his new tricks against Rolls, which could extend the fight longer than it should. Golovkin has always been one to suggest that every fight needs to end in a knockout. After a remarkable stretch from 2008 to 2017 where Golovkin stopped 23 consecutive opponents, GGG has only had one knockout in his last four fights. This certainly suggests that Golovkin will look to stop Rolls, but when will he decide that it’s over is anyone’s guess.
But if Rolls is able to stay in the fight and prove his mettle, would could see a stoppage somewhere in the middle rounds.
To be clear, I don’t see any path for Rolls to win this fight. He lacks the power and technical ability to defeat a fighter who has never been knocked down in either his amateur or professional career. Although GGG lost to Canelo in his last fight, many thought it could have gone his way and the former unified middleweight champion would still be undefeated. Nevertheless, here we are. And where we are isn’t going to be where Rolls wants to stand once GGG decides that he’s tired of trying new tricks and decides to sit on his punches.
Right now, the line for the Golovkin ending the fight between rounds 4-6 is +188, which appears to be the sweet spot. GGG rarely allows an opponent to hang around past seven rounds. As a matter of fact, outside of Canelo and Jacobs, only four fighters have made it to the 8th round. Rolls isn’t as good as David Lemieux or Martin Murray. He’s probably not as good as Curtis Stevens, either. With Golovkin seeing what transpired last week and the incentive to destroy his opponent and set the table for a rematch with Canelo, chances are that Golovkin executes his game plan, puts a few new tricks to work and sends Rolls packing in the middle of the fight.
Ideally, taking GGG in rounds 4-6 makes the most sense. But, just to be safe, putting a few dollars down on GGG ending the fight in the 7th round (+800) won’t hurt.