How To Bet F1 German GP: Home Factor Could Be Decisive For Rosberg

F1Germany

Jim Makos

Saturday, July 30, 2016 4:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Jul. 30, 2016 4:56 PM GMT

Hamilton’s stellar performance in Hungary last week hasn’t deterred Rosberg from going into the next F1 Grand Prix with boosted confidence. Despite losing the race in the first corner as he stated, he is still satisfied by his performance according to his own words. The home factor might play a significant role in this weekend’s circuit, which is already reflected on odds dynamics and behavior. What’s more, the Championship is on the line this weekend. Let’s see why.

German GP – Winner Market
Rosberg’s odds are already declining at betting exchanges even before Friday’s practice sessions. On a Mercedes-favoring circuit both of their drivers enjoy bettors’ preference, although they are mostly interested on Rosberg as we witness on Betfair’s charts.

His odds have already dropped from 4.50 (+350) down to 3.50 (+250). In the meantime, Hamilton’s chances have remained almost unchanged, as odds are fluctuating in the 1.80-1.90 range (52-55%). He is the favorite driver to find himself on the podium’s highest place on Sunday, yet ignoring Rosberg’s odds downtrend could prove costly.

Betting on the German driver early on may prove a profitable strategy, especially if he performs exceptionally in Friday’s practice. Snatching a pole position on a sunny-expected Saturday would further improve his chances, which of course, drive more punters to bet on Rosberg, pushing his odds further below.

Weather forecasts talk of wet conditions on Friday and during the race alike. Although this never favors the front runners and unexpected conditions lead to unexpected results, Mercedes cars have proven themselves too good for the competition. There is really no point to talk about more teams or drivers this weekend. Sure, surprise wins can happen, especially on unchanged weather conditions, but betting on huge underdogs hasn’t proven such a successful strategy this season – knock wood.

 
2016 Drivers Championship: Time to Back Rosberg?
Hamilton’s win at Hungaroring circuit improved his chances of winning another Formula 1 championship title. Best odds for him to be crowned a Champion this year are 1.35 (-285), the lowest price they have traded this season.

Still, the chart we should be focusing on is Rosberg’s. Here’s both of them at Betfair.

His odds have been drifting since May. Although betting against the trend isn’t generally recommended, his odds are at a key price level. To illustrate that, here’s his odds chart at Bet365 and William Hill.

Sportsbooks currently offer Rosberg to win the title at 4.00 (+300), matching this season’s high, printed back in March! That makes it a great resistance level, which will strongly challenge the recent uptrend. Given Formula 1 is visiting Rosberg’s home country this weekend may not be a coincidence, after all!

If Rosberg wins on Sunday, it’s safe to assume that his odds will begin shortening again, confirming the resistance level and start building a momentum. That’s a great entry! This momentum may well drive prices down to 1.50 (-200) again and we might be looking at the next Champion. On the other hand, if Rosberg doesn’t perform well in German Grand Prix, odds will definitely break above that level, accelerating the uptrend and diminishing his chances to win the Championship. Probably for good.

In that case, Hamilton will pose as the huge favorite for the championship race and honestly, I cannot see how he will lose it then. But concerning this weekend’s race, all eyes will be on Rosberg and for a very good reason. The lucrative F1 Champion’s title is on the line this Sunday!

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