How to Bet Canelo Alvarez vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr

Canelo vs Chavez

Andreas Hale

Friday, May 5, 2017 4:54 PM UTC

Friday, May. 5, 2017 4:54 PM UTC

There’s a growing legacy (Canelo) vs. an established lineage (Chavez Jr.) and fight fans are truly divided on who to get behind. You want to know how to make some money by betting on this massive fight. Well, let’s talk about it.

In case you haven’t heard, there is a pretty big fight this weekend. And although it is big for the sport, the fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. holds extra significance for Mexico and Mexican boxing fans. It is arguably one of the biggest bouts between Mexican fighters over the past two decades.

Canelo is the rightful favorite heading into the fight. The 26-year-old 48-1-1 with 34 knockouts with his lone loss coming to the great Floyd Mayweather back in 2013. With victories over the likes of Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley and others he’s grown to become the biggest star in the sport and has proven time and time again why the Mexican contingency has gotten behind the redheaded boxer.

Shop for Canelo Alvarez vs Chavez Jr. Prop Bets & Odds

Although Chavez has the name, he hasn’t quite proven to be as formidable as Canelo over the years. With a record 50-2-1 (1 NC) and 32 knockouts, you would think that Chavez has proven his worth. However, despite his natural gifts, he has shown a lack of discipline when it comes to dedicating himself to the sport. Those instances came back to bite him when he was outboxed for 11 rounds by Sergio Martinez in 2012. Chavez looked lethargic as Martinez boxed circles around him until Chavez caught him with a thudding punch in the final round. But, as always with Chavez, it was too little, too late. Weight problems and the lack of a rigid training regime kept Chavez out in the cold and garnered a ton of criticism along the way. He was stopped by Andrzej Fonfara in a light heavyweight title fight in 2015 and hasn’t been acknowledged as the great fighter he could have been.

Canelo opened up as a -825 favorite but that wide line has come down to around -600 as money for the huge underdog drifts in. Meanwhile, Chavez opened up as a +600 but can now be found at +425. The rationale behind this makes sense: we have never truly seen what a motivated and focused Chavez can do. For years he has coasted on his granite chin and thudding power and both are qualities you cannot necessarily teach. He’s proven that he can be an effective boxer, but only in spurts. With a pride of his country on the line, it’s very possible that we’ll see the best Chavez. What that means exactly, is up in the air.

But with the fight being at 164.5 pounds, which is the highest weight that Canelo has ever fought, there’s a possibility that Chavez can pull off the upset. Aside from having a perceived significant weight advantage, Chavez will also have a distinct height advantage as he stands 6’1” to Canelo’s 5’9”. But the curiosity doesn’t lie as much with Canelo as it does with Chavez.

Canelo is the much more disciplined boxer who is quick with his footwork and can put together blistering combinations. He’s proven to be an effective and efficient boxer who can outpoint his opponents just as much as he can flatten them with a scintillating knockout. And that perceived weight advantage is interesting because Canelo has been known to blow up to the size of a super middleweight on fight night. It’s going to be a bigger challenge for Chavez to lose the weight than it is for Canelo to gain it.

To put it simply, stay away from betting either fighter straight up. Instead, there are two very particular scenarios where you can hedge your bet. With the over of 9 ½ rounds being at a +165, that’s a very likely scenario that favors Canelo. Although he holds highlight reel knockouts against Amir Khan and James Kirkland, they weren’t as big and able to take a punch like Chavez. With the size being an intriguing element, it’s very likely we’ll see Canelo box his way to victory and be smart to avoid giving Chavez opportunities to catch him with a punch in the midst of a brawl. A knockout for Canelo is possible, but not as likely. As for Chavez, there’s no real way he can win this fight by decision. He’s not built to keep up with the faster Canelo and doesn’t throw enough to win rounds. Chavez would certainly need a few knockdowns to win a decision but he’s more likely to finish Canelo than see the fight go the distance.

Prop bets currently have Chavez at 10/1 to score a knockout while Alvarez is 5/7 to win a decision. That’s where you’re going to find the most value. Putting down a significant amount on Canelo winning a decision as well hedging your bet with a smaller amount on Chavez stopping Canelo inside of distance should yield you a solid payday.

Anything else is uncivilized.

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