How The Delegation Battle Is Affecting Presidential Moneyline Odds

Jim Makos

Friday, February 12, 2016 1:38 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 12, 2016 1:38 PM UTC

What impact did the New Hampshire and Iowa results have on the US election betting markets? If you live under a rock and missed the news, odds will tell you everything.

The long nomination battle has just started the past couple of weeks, as Iowa and New Hampshire chose delegates. The victories of Clinton, Cruz, Trump and Sanders didn’t go unnoticed by bettors, who influenced the US election moneyline. With Carolina and Nevada coming up next and another Democratic debate taking place last night, let’s have a look at how odds have moved at Bet365.


Democrat Candidate
Given that the heat is up for the nomination, we start off with the betting market for each party. 
For Democrats, Hillary Clinton (-500) seems way ahead of Bernie Sanders (+350) and Joe Biden (+1400). New Hampshire favorable result led Sanders’ odds to shorten from +400 to +300 of course, yet they drifted just a bit following the debate against his rival. Half a year ago, the moneyline was resting at +1900.

Clinton’s very short odds don’t allow the extraction of safe conclusions. Her betting odds for winning the nomination did inflict minor change over the past few days. However, that change is almost neglible compared for instance, to the drift her moneyline is experiencing since December. While it moved just 50 or so points this week, it has climbed from December’s -2,000 up to -500, revealing a strong momentum against the former First Lady.


Republican Candidate
This is where it gets interesting, as the attention-grabbing Donald Trump is considered the favorite for the nomination. Rubio, Cruz and Bush are following closely in that order according to the moneyline. Handicappers bet huge on Trump this week, forcing his odds to shorten from +300 to about evens (+110) giving him the lead in the nomination race.

February looks good also for Cruz’s chances, as bettors pushed his odds quite a bit. The victory in Iowa obviously made some bettors to risk on his long odds, which descended from +600 to +400. That decline looks like a resume of the downtrend that began in last fall and maybe we’ll see odds dropping further below.

An impressive reversal looks likely to happen on Rubio’s odds chart. Having been the Republican favorite for quite some time, the recent unfavorable results have made bettors look at more promising nominees. That, of course, resulted to Rubio’s moneyline to drift violently in February, and from -160 the moneyline is nowadays at +300! Notice how the trendline (red arrow) is now invalid after the latest betting odds movement. I would take my money elsewhere, just because of that.



Winning Party
In the Election 2016 winner market, Clinton remains the favorite followed by Trump. But instead of looking yet again at the individual candidate’s charts, let’s load the moneyline charts for the winning party.
The Democrats’ moneyline is on a steady decline for two years now. Their win is currently available at -160, drifting just a notch from February’s low at -175.

Republicans’ odds follow the exact opposite route. Despite Trump’s triumphant and pompous presence all over the news, bettors are not that eager to back the Grand Old Party, which has led sportsbooks to continuously offer better odds.

Therefore, in this post we pointed out the slowly drifting odds of Clinton and the rapidly shortening Trump’s moneyline. We also examined how New Hampshire and Iowa’s result affected the betting markets, which also had a minor impact by the Democratic debate. The nomination battle has just begun, but if you can’t keep up with the news, a quick glimpse at the US election betting markets will tell you all that is happening.

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