Horse Betting Odds: Can American Pharoah Win the 2015 Triple Crown?

David Schwab

Wednesday, May 27, 2015 5:28 PM GMT

Wednesday, May. 27, 2015 5:28 PM GMT

New York history could be made with just the 12th ever Triple Crown winner in the three-race series for three-year old thoroughbreds. Find out what our horse picks & odds are for the Belmont Stakes.

American Pharoah has taken the horse racing world and the betting public by storm after winning the first two jewels in one of the most elusive crowns in all of sports. He will now try and win the third and final race with a first-place finish in the grueling 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes, which is known as the toughest test for three-year olds. The following is a look at his futures betting odds to win the race as well as his current odds to lay claim to the Triple Crown.

 

Betting Odds to win the 2015 Belmont Stakes
Bovada has recently updated its futures odds to win this year’s Belmont Stakes in an expected field of 12 three-year olds and American Pharoah has been listed as a 1/1 even money favorite. Frosted is next on the list as a 5/1 second-favorite to win the Belmont followed by Materiality at 15/2. Rounding-out the top five are Mubtaahij at 14/1 and Carpe Diem at 16/1.

Looking at the entire list of expected entries, American Pharoah is the only horse to have run both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness so he is already at a disadvantage against the rest of the contenders from a freshness standpoint. These major graded stakes races can be very taxing on these horses and three weeks rest between two major races is not that much of a break, especially when it has been a five-week layoff for the second and third favorites on this list.

This is one of the biggest reasons that since Affirmed last won a Triple Crown title in 1978, there have been 13 horses that have won the first two legs only to come-up short in the Belmont. We have seen six horses make their bid for a Triple Crown since 2002 and the closest any horse came to winning this title was Smarty Jones in 2004 with a second-place finish in the Belmont. Big Brown was touted as the three-year old with the best chance to end this extended draught in his Triple Crown bid in 2008 and he did not even finish the 1 ½ mile run in the Belmont. Two years ago I’ll Have Another was a late scratch for the Belmont and last year California Chrome ended-up fourth in the Belmont to see his Triple Crown chances fall by the wayside.

When you break down the competition for this year’s Belmont Stakes, Frosted is the horse with the next best odds, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s Carpe Diem may come into this race with the best credentials from this year’s Kentucky Derby prep season of races. He ended-up a disappointing 10th in the Derby after going off from the second post as an 8/1 third-favorite, but prior to that run, he placed first in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs on March 7 and first in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4. Since the Kentucky Derby, he has been busy training for his chance to redeem himself in a Triple Crown event.

 

Betting Odds to win the 2015 Triple Crown
If you want to bet that American Pharoah does win this year’s Belmont Stakes to become just the 12th Triple Crown winner in the storied history of this three-race event, then Bovada’s betting money line is the same even money +100. If you want to go against this horse for your sports picks, in what basically amounts to a play on the field, the betting money line is -140.

Conventional wisdom would probably dictate a play on no, he will not win the Triple Crown in this prop given everything in the past that has worked against a horse winning all three races, but this time around things may be different.

Most of the field is nowhere near the class of American Pharoah, who has already proven that he has the closing speed to win races down the stretch like he did in his one-length victory in the Kentucky Derby. He has also demonstrated his ability to dominate the field with his seven-length victory in the Preakness Stakes against a much smaller field of eight horses. Before these two victories, he won both the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with relative ease as well.

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