Home vs Road Split Has Indians & Orioles Staying Under The Total

Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles MLB Odds

Charles Stark

Saturday, July 23, 2016 1:28 PM GMT

Arguably the best matchup in major league baseball today will be taking place in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Cleveland Indians. Odds makers have come out with what I think is a pretty high total for this matchup so does that mean we will see more offense than good pitching?

The MLB odds have come out with the total for this game at 9 at most places. Currently there is a little less juice on under the total which is where I will make my MLB pick backing under the total of 9 like at Bet Online -105. Both of these starting pitchers have shown the capability of putting up a lot of zeros on the board.

Cleveland Indians
Josh Tomlin has a 2.44 ERA with batters hitting just .233 against him on the road this season. It goes without saying that Cleveland has really turned things around since last year and offensively they can score runs in bunches. Right now they rank in the top part of league in most offensive categories highlighted by ranking fifth in both runs per game and total bases. However, when they travel they have been much less efficient with a lot of their averages dropping significantly.

Their runs per game drop from 5.74 at home to just 4.44 on the road (one of the biggest disparities in major league baseball), and their batting average drops from an incredible .288 at home, which is fourth in the major leagues, to just .239 on the road which ranks them 27th. Their starting pitchers this season have been extremely good and Tomlin has been one of the reasons.

In his last 10 starts the most runs he has given up is five just one time and in his last five road starts he has given up just a total of 10 earned runs. He is susceptible to the long ball which may be an issue today so I don't expect him to not get scored off of but just to keep the damage to a minimum.
 

Baltimore Orioles
Kevin Gausman holds a 2.79 ERA at home with batters hitting just .223 against him in Baltimore. In his last five starts he has been less than stellar allowing 13 total earned runs in that span, however only one of those games was at home in which he allowed zero runs off of four hits against the Tampa Bay Rays.

He has had some struggles this season but when we look more closely where he has gotten knocked around it is not all that bad. In his last 10 starts he has only really had two bad outings allowing 11 earned runs in just nine innings, but the issue was that both of those games were against the Boston Red Sox, the best hitting team in baseball. With his home numbers versus Cleveland's road numbers I expect him to have a quality start today.

At the plate Baltimore has been one of the better teams in baseball especially from a power standpoint as they rank first in home runs per game, second in total bases, and fourth in OPS. Although they had a pretty good day at the plate yesterday, prior to that in their seven games since the All-Star break they did not score more than four runs in any of those games averaging just two runs per contest.

Free MLB Pick:  Under 9 -105
Best Line Offered:  at Bet Online

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