Hidden Value Bouts at UFC Fight Night 121?

werdum tybura

Andreas Hale

Friday, November 17, 2017 4:25 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 4:25 PM UTC

The UFC heads back to Sydney, Australia for UFC Fight Night 121 headlined by former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum taking on Polish heavyweight Marcin Tybura.

The main event of UFC 121 on Saturday night (USA time) from Sydney, Australia, finds Fabricio Werdum stepping in for Mark Hunt -- after beating Walt Harris on less than 24 hours notice at UFC 216 last month -- to face Marcin Tybura, who is currently riding a three-fight winning streak. Given their respective resumes and recent performances, the line that finds Werdum as a -345 favorite to Tybura +285 underdog status is spot on.

However, the heavyweight division is always a tricky one where one punch can change a fight. Nevertheless, Tybura will likely fall victim to Werdum’s high-powered jiujitsu game. When Werdum is aware of his advantages, he tends to use them like he did against Harris. Although Tybura isn’t a jiujitsu novice considering that he’s a brown belt, falling into the ground game is the last thing he’ll want to do. Unless you are comfortable with putting down a lot to get a little, I’d stay away from this fight.

Former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks hasn’t had great much success since signing with the UFC as he’s been saddled with back-to-back losses in his first two fights with the promotion. He’ll look to right the ship against Nik Lentz in a bout that was rescheduled from UFC 216 after Lentz was deemed unfit to compete on the day of weigh-ins. Brooks should be a favorite here, but the line is too good to pass up on the other side. Considering Brooks’ current losing streak, seeing him as a -550 favorite makes this a pick you should want no parts of. With Lentz being a +425 underdog, there is some intrigue with taking a shot on this. Brooks is the superior wrestler, but it’s hard to predict where he’s at mentally and Lentz isn’t an easy out. It’s certainly worth a shot given the line.

The only other fight on this card that appears to have some value is the 'under' 2.5 rounds at -150 in the Alexander Volkanovski vs. Shane Young featherweight scrap. Volkanovski is 15-1 in his career (2-0 UFC) and has finished 12 of his opponents inside of the distance. Young steps in on short notice after Volkanovski’s previous two opponents were pulled from the card. Young didn’t have much time to prepare considering that the announcement was made on Monday. Usually, a short notice fight such as this tends to end in a stoppage. Neither fighter has had much time to prepare for the other and will likely walk into something that they aren’t expecting. Although Young has never been stopped, he still sits as a +475 underdog. But, again, you never really know what’s going to happen in these short notice fights. But it’s highly likely that one of these fighters doesn’t get a chance to hear the final bell. Take the under at -150.

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