Hero World Challenge Betting Preview: Value Lies Behind McIlroy, Morikawa

A 20-man field is in The Bahamas for this week's Hero World Challenge and our comprehensive betting preview breaks it down with picks to win.

Albany Golf Course in The Bahamas once again plays host to Tiger Woods' Hero World Challenge after the 2020 event was canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the five-time winner of this event won't be participating, he's still the talk of the golf world after sharing a video of himself swinging a club nine months removed from a serious car accident.

https://twitter.com/TigerWoods/status/1462448711682957322

In his place, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are this week's betting favorites. Both have a win this fall, with McIlroy's coming at the PGA Tour's CJ Cup and Morikawa winning the European Tour's DP World Tour Championship in Dubai amid McIlroy's final-round collapse.

Here are my outright, matchup, and prop betting picks for the Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course in The Bahamas.

Hero World Challenge Odds

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ya6E2/1/

Hero World Challenge Odds Analysis

McIlroy is the standalone favorite at DraftKings. He and Morikawa share the honor at both FanDuel and BetMGM, with Thomas right behind at all three books.

DeChambeau, fresh off his loss to Brooks Koepka in The Match V, is +1000 to +1200 to win this week. Koepka, meanwhile, has an implied winning percentage ranging from 3.85% to 4.76%. Defending 2019 Hero World Challenge champion Henrik Stenson is last by the odds in the small field after making the cut in just three of 12 PGA Tour events in 2021.

Albany Golf Course Betting Profile

Albany Golf Course has hosted this event since 2015. Designed by Ernie Els, it measures 7,309 yards and plays to a par of 72. There are several water hazards and the many sand dunes also threaten scorecards. Still, no champion has finished worse than minus-18.

Eleven holes played below par in 2019, with the easiest being the 548-yard, par-5 15th. It had six eagles and 41 birdies carded against a single bogey in the tournament and played to a scoring average of 4.278.

The par 4s range from just 298 yards to 489, with four in the 450-500-yard range. The par 3s range from 180 to 216 yards, and the par 5s vary from 548 yards to 603.

Hero World Challenge Betting Stats

Despite the length, Albany GC still puts an emphasis on accuracy off the tee and the short game. 

Sand-save percentage can be a difference-maker between similarly priced golfers, but birdies-or-better percentage is our No. 1 stat for the week with the emphasis on scoring at this venue. 

Birdie-or-better percentageSand-save percentagePar-4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsStrokes Gained: Around-the-GreenSG: Off-the-Tee (accuracy over distance)

Patrick Reed leads those in attendance this week with 20 career rounds played at Albany GC and his 2.38 total strokes gained per round also lead the 20-man field. Nine golfers are making their debuts at the venue this week, including McIlroy and Morikawa.

Hero World Challenge Betting Picks

To win: Jordan Spieth (+1400 via BetMGM), Brooks Koepka (+2500 via DraftKings), Patrick Reed (+3300 via BetMGM)Tournament matchup: Morikawa vs. McIlroy (-105 via BetMGM), Webb Simpson vs. Scottie Scheffler (+100 via DraftKings)Round 1 leader: Reed (+2200 via BetMGM)Top-5 finish: Justin Thomas (+140 via DraftKings)Winner in final pairing: No (+200 via DraftKings)

Hero World Challenge Outright Picks

Spieth (+1400)

Jordan Spieth shares the fourth-best odds at all three of our top books, but he has the best value at BetMGM with an implied 6.67% probability of winning.

The 2014 winner of this event did so at a different venue, but he enters the 2021 tournament with 1.80 total strokes gained per round across 16 rounds at Albany GC. He has 23 birdies through his four rounds early in the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, and he leads the Tour in par-4 efficiency from our key distance in that limited sample.

The former world No. 1 returned to the winner's circle in 2021 and he finished the 2020-21 FedEx Cup season sixth among golfers with at least 30 measured rounds played with 0.41 SG: Around-the-Green per round.

Koepka (+2500)

Prior to his 12-hole exhibition match against DeChambeau in Las Vegas, Koepka had missed back-to-back cuts. He hasn't had a top-10 finish since a T-6 at The Open Championship in July.

The four-time major champ has often expressed his disdain for lower-level events, and the unofficial showcase in The Bahamas would certainly seem to qualify as one of those; however, Koepka has averaged a respectable 0.57 strokes gained per round at this venue. He could look to end his up-and-down 2021 campaign on a high before a slow ramp-up to start 2022 ahead of the major season.

Reed (+3300)

Though he has never won this event in The Bahamas, or elsewhere, Reed is the field leader in total strokes gained at this venue but has the second-worst odds at BetMGM.

The controversial figure most recently tied for 32nd in Dubai and he has a top finish this fall of T-2 at the Bermuda Championship. He has long been one of the best sand players on Tour, and that will suit him well once again at the links-style Albany GC.

Hero World Challenge Matchup Picks

Morikawa-McIlroy (-105)

When we last saw McIlroy, he was attempting to go back-to-back at The CJ Cup and the DP World Tour Championship. However, he shot a final round of 74 to fall to a tie for sixth while Morikawa claimed his sixth career professional win with a final round of 66.

Look for a measure of revenge from McIlroy. Both golfers are making their debut at Albany GC this week, but McIlroy enters as the better course fit while tied for first in birdie-or-better percentage and sixth in par-4 efficiency of 450-500 yards through four measured rounds this season.

Simpson-Scheffler (+100)

Webb Simpson has just a slight course history edge with one appearance at Albany GC. He comes off of a T-8 finish at The RSM Classic, while Scottie Scheffler followed up a strong fourth-place finish at the World Wide Technology Championship and a T-2 at the Houston Open with a T-57 at Sea Island Resort.

The two were neck-and-neck in par-4 efficiency of 450-500 yards last season, but Scheffler was the much better of the two off the tee. Scheffler also had a very slight edge in birdie-or-better percentage, and he's worth backing at the even-money odds.

Hero World Challenge Top Prop Picks

Round 1 leader: Reed (+2200)

We can double down on Reed due to his strong course history. He was also ninth on Tour last season with a first-round scoring average of 69.55 and he shared the 18-hole lead at minus-6 in this event in 2019.

Top 5: Thomas (+140)

It's a bargain to still be getting plus money on Thomas in this market. He tied for fifth in 2019 and has averaged 1.78 total strokes gained across 12 career rounds at this venue.

Through eight measured rounds this season, he's tied with McIlroy with a 37.50 birdie-or-better percentage.

Winner in final pairing: No (+200)

Only one of the five previous runnings of this event at Albany GC was decided by a single stroke, but any number of golfers in this elite field are capable of making up a big scoring difference in the final 18 holes. We already saw Morikawa soar up the leaderboard in Round 4 in Dubai.

McIlroy, Morikawa, Sam Burns, and Viktor Hovland all have a win already this fall from either the PGA or European Tour. We need just one in the field of 20 to have a great Sunday to double our investment with this prop.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 11/29/21 at 10 p.m. ET.