Hellas Verona vs. Lazio Picks for Serie A Week 9 Betting

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 27, 2014 3:45 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 3:45 PM UTC

We share our best soccer pick and prediction for Week 9 of Series A betting taking place at Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi in Verona as hosts Hellas Verona battle Lazio for positioning near the top of the table. 

Odds Overview
Hellas Verona welcomes Lazio to Verona and the Bentegodi in this Week 9 Serie A fixture between two teams fighting to be the near the top of the Italian table and dreaming of a UEFA Champions League berth. Soccer odds have made visiting Lazio +137 Favorites over host Hellas Verona (+190; Draw +239, bet365) with the Total set at 2½ Under -125 and the Both Teams To Score prop (Yes) priced at -137 (No +100; bet365).

On a side note, because of derogatory racist chants from Hellas Verona fans toward AC Milan midfielder Sulley Muntari in Verona’s 3-1 loss two weeks ago here at Home, Verona is being forced by the league to play with one end of the Bentegodi closed off as a penalty, a small edge to visiting Lazio both psychologically and from a decreased attendance point of view for Verona but nothing to do major somersaults about from a handicapping perspective.


Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona (3-2-3, 11 points, 9 GF- 14 GA) entered the weekend in 8th place in Serie A and is now in 10th after getting pummeled 6-2 by Napoli on Sunday. Verona had scored just 7 goals in 7 games (now 9 in 8)—hardly a pace that will get you a top-four finish in any European league (1.125 gpg) unless your defense is spectacular and allowing just 8 goals in those 7 games heading into Week 8, Gialloblu could have been defined as “defensively sound” until Verona allowed almost as many goals in one game (6) as it had all season heading in (8).

Serie A is traditionally is a fairly low-scoring league—Italy’s top flight of soccer was averaging 1.44-1.09 (Average Full-Time Score) after 70 matches—and when one notices the top three teams in Serie A have allowed just 3, 4, 6 and 4 goals respectively after 7 games (Juventus, AS Roma, Udinese, Sampdoria), you then realize that Verona’s defense is as good as it has to be in relationship to its somewhat suspect offense—midfielder Artur Ioni?a with 2 goals is the only Gialloblu with more than one goal—and that any dreams of a Champions League spot and maybe even a Europa League berth will just be pipe dreams unless this teams starts scoring some more goals and avoiding allowing 6 as it did against Napoli. Goalkeeper Rafael has been solid so far, but putting that much pressure on a GK can be a dangerous thing in a league with some clubs known to score in spurts, as Gli Azzurri proved in Naples.


Lazio (5-0-2, 15 points, 15 GF-8 GA) has been on a mini-roll from Weeks 5-8, earning 12 points and climbing the table with three consecutive wins in games in which the Biancocelesti scored multiple goals (Lazio 4 Palermo 0, Lazio 3 Sassuolo 2, Lazio 2 Fiorentina 0 and Lazio 2 Torino 1 on Sunday). Leading the attack for Lazio in its 4-3-3 formation have been forwards Filip Ðordevic (4 goals), Antonio Candreva (2 goals, Serie A-leading 5 assists) and Senad Lulic and midfielders Lucas Biglia, Marco Parolo and Stefano Mauri. Goalkeeper Federico Marchetti has allowed just an average of 1.0 gpg on the Road (2-0-2, 7 GF-4 GA) where Lazio had recorded 6 of its 15 points and with an opportunity to win its fifth straight here, it’s easy to like the visitors, especially at +137.


Best Betting Approaches
With the stigma of being penalized for racism and the reality of an only potentially half-filled stadium, Hellas Verona accidentally created an environment of a watered-down Home game here against a better team than themselves which is playing better soccer. Advantage Lazio. With the odds at a fair +137 on the visiting Biancocelesti in this soccer pick, I feel like taking a chance on Lazio here is definitely the way to go as its attack is a little more dangerous and a little more prolific and this team is riding the wave of a four-game win streak in which they have outscored opponents 11-3.

And besides Lazio, the Both Teams To Score -137 (bet365) prop wager is also worth small consideration here with the Home team likely to be able to score a goal with visiting Lazio probably putting up at least 2 and maybe more themselves. There are no thick series records between these two and Hellas Verona is actually 1-1-0 against Lazio, beating Biancocelesti 4-1 here in Verona and tying Lazio 3-3 in Rome (Note 2 Overs) last season in two games in which the two teams both scored in both halves of the two games. Here, Ðordevic and Candreva could again be the scorers as this team’s feeling about its offense as this new season starts taking shape and Lazio pictures itself in the league race. And to get to that end, Biancocelesti will have to win and secure all three points from Road games like this.

Free Soccer Pick for Series A: Lazio +137 (bet365)

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