Heavy Favorite in Gold Cup Betting Line, Mexico's a Lock vs. Cuba

Steven Suarez

Thursday, July 9, 2015 11:15 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 11:15 AM UTC

Finding true value in the soccer odds for the 2015 Gold Cup match between Mexico and Cuba is difficult, with the money line favorite priced at -2000. We've found a good way to profit nonetheless.

Odds Overview
Well, one look at the 2015 Gold Cup soccer odds and you'll see a huge difference between these two outfits. 

Mexico is an overwhelmingly large favorite at the top sportsbooks, with oddsmakers listing them in the -1350 to -1600 range to earn the three points in their first group stage match. Cuba is quoted to win at roughly +2300 at some sites, but 5Dimes has taken it a step further, posting a line of +4075. If you think there's any chance whatsoever of a shock win, that's where you'll want to go to take advantage of that line.


There's no doubt Mexico is going to be a heavy favorite throughout the tournament. Whenever these guys are set to play, you should get ready to see them favored, and sometimes by large margins. On this occasion, the Mexicans will meet up with Cuba in their opener, hoping for a great start in their group play adventure.

The leadup to the competition hasn't been all that positive for Mexico, as they were unable to make a big splash in the Copa America, where they crashed out in group play after picking up two draws (against Chile and Bolivia) and one defeat (to Ecuador). The Mexicans then had one more warmup match in a friendly against Honduras, with the final score ending 0-0.

Despite some shaky form coming in, Mexico remains a favorite to win the Gold Cup, thanks to a talented squad that features the likes of Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez, Carlos Vela and others. Unfortunately Chicharito broke his collarbone and will therefore miss the competition, but this is still a group that has a lot of quality all over the pitch and one that will be challenging for the trophy when everything is said and done.


The Cubans have been trying to get as prepared as possible ahead of this daunting opening test against Mexico in Group C, which also features Guatemala and Trinidad & Tobagos. Cuba played a "hybrid friendly" against the New York Cosmos and lost 4-1, and then followed that up with back-to-back draws against Curucao in World Cup Qualifying.

After a 0-0 deadlock in the first leg versus Curucao, the return encounter ended 1-1, with Cuba bowing out because of the away goal. Confidence can't be too high for this team right now, but they at least know they have nothing to lose and can play without fear against the favored Mexicans.

Reports coming out, however, are saying that one player has already defected and that a host of other players, in addition to the team's coach, just arrived into Chicago today, the day of the match. Needless to say, we're not expecting much of anything at all out of the Cubans.


Gold Cup Pick
We're obviously not going to find much of any value with our soccer picks if we want to roll with Mexico straight up on the moneyline. It's been a while since we're seen a number this high, and it means we've got to get a little creative in order to avoid laying such massive chalk.

That's why we'll be rolling with a handicap play, backing the Mexicans to win by at least three goals this evening. They know they need to get out to a fast start in group play, especially since there will be trickier matches coming up next. This should be the team's easiest encounter of the campaign, so getting the win would be crucial.

It'd be very surprising to see the Mexicans have any trouble whatsoever with this Cuba outfit on Thursday night. Vela and company should take care of business in style inside Soldier Field. 

Soccer Pick: Mexico 3 Cuba 0 (Mexico -2.5 at -146 on 5Dimes)

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