Head-to-Head Trend & Form Makes Colombia Our Soccer Pick vs. Peru

Thursday, June 16, 2016 4:00 AM GMT

Can Peru stun Colombia in Copa America Centenario? We preview the highly-anticipated quarterfinal and serve up soccer picks to shade on your wagering slips.

Peru
Peru advance into the quarterfinals of Copa America as group B winners behind an undefeated run that includes two wins and a draw. They opened their campaign with a 1-0 win over Haiti. They wobbled in the second round when they allowed Ecuador to erase a 2-0 lead and force the draw, but bounced back with a statement win over Brazil in the final round that sent the fancied Canaries packing from the tournament.

Peru finished third in last year’s Copa America in Chile. After seeing off Bolivia in the quarterfinals, they lost to Chile in the semi-finals and beat Paraguay in the playoff for third-place. Peru will be looking to better that run in this special instalment of Copa America and, one has to concede, they are in a favourable section of the draw to accomplish the feat, so long as they get past a tough Colombia side that is. You can back Peru to triumph at the Copa America Centenario at +5000 soccer odds in outright betting markets.

 

Colombia
Colombia finished runners-up in group A, a surprising twist after starting their campaign brightly. They opened with a 2-0 win over the USA and then beat Paraguay 2-1. In the last lap of group action, they stumbled against Costa Rica, a side that had nothing to play for save pride. The 3-2 loss to Los Ticos cost Colombia top spot in group B.

Still, if not unsurprisingly, they remain amongst the top favourites in outright betting markets to triumph in Copa America Centenario. You’ll find Colombia trading at +600 soccer odds or thereabouts, second-best bet jointly with Mexico but backed in a ways away from pre-tournament favourites Argentina at -138 at Bet365.

Colombia haven’t advanced past the quarterfinal stage of this tournament since 2004 and in 2011 they lost to (ironically) Peru on penalties. Los Cafeteros have some demons to exorcise here, a score to settle. It remains to be seen whether they’ll live up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites.

Inasmuch as it’s an advantageous spot in the draw for Peru – in that they avoid both Argentina and Mexico until the final – so too is it for Colombia. It’s certainly a chance to go deeper in the tournament than they’ve been in recent memory.

 

Match Betting and Soccer Odds
Although Peru emerge from a tougher group (on account of Brazil’s presence), they are matched as the outsiders in this fixture and absurdly so with soccer odds of +420 at Heritage to +565 at BetCris. Of course, that falls in line with outright betting markets where Los Incas are the seventh best bet out of the last eight. Only Venezuela are priced larger at +10000 to triumph in Copa America (a market outlook chalked largely down to Venezuela drawing Argentina in the quarterfinals).

With a star-studded cast that includes James Rodriquez and Carlos Bacca, to name a few, Los Cafeteros are dubbed the favourites unanimously across sports betting exchanges with soccer odds of -154 at William Hill to -178  at The Greek.

The draw is matched at +280 or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. In 2015, Colombia faced Argentina in the quarterfinals and although they gave them a run for their money they were eliminated 5-4 on penalties.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
Peru strike an attractive pose on the soccer betting board as the massive outsiders. After all, they are the quintessential dangerous floaters with a penchant for grabbing improbable victories just as they did over Brazil. Colombia, to some extent, may appear a bit overrated seeing as they are coming off a loss to Costa Rica, a match most expected they would win and, in turn, clinch top spot in group B.

It’s important though not to make too much of the group stage when settling on your choice soccer picks. The playoffs are an entirely different ball game. Slates are wiped clean and it all comes down to one match.  As far as this matchup goes, Colombia won the last meeting between this pair in South American World Cup qualifying, a 2-0 win in Barranquilla. Importantly, they haven’t lost to Los Incas in five straight fixtures across several competitions (3W 2D). On the strength of that head-to-head trend and form, it’s hard not to shade Colombia on our soccer picks to win this match.

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Free Soccer Picks: Colombia 

Best Line Offered:  to win at -154 at William Hill