Group D UCL Soccer Picks: Sevilla +190 a Tough Nut to Crack at Home

Nikki Adams

Monday, November 2, 2015 11:18 PM GMT

The stakes are high in Group D when Sevilla and Manchester City collide on match day 4. Join us as we preview this highly anticipated clash & serve up our choice soccer picks. 

How Group D Shapes Up
Juventus lead group D with a 2-1-0 mark and 7 points, but Manchester City trail a point behind with a 2-0-1 mark. Sevilla are sat in third place with a 1-0-2 mark and 3 points while Borussia M’gladbach are fourth with a 0-1-2 mark and a point.

The implications of the current standings are as follows:

  • If Juventus and City win, both are through and Sevilla will compete with Mönchengladbach for third place.

  • If City win and the other game is drawn, City are through

Get More Group B Free Soccer Picks

Sevilla Home Underdogs
Two-time Europe League champions Sevilla look to bounce back on match day 4 when they host Manchester City at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in Seville. A fortnight ago, Los Rojiblancos let the 1-0 lead slip through their fingers as the Citizens rallied at the Etihad to take the 2-1 win and pivotal three points.

After a bright start to their campaign behind a 3-0 win over Borussia M’gladbach, the wheels came undone. Sevilla lost both their ensuing games on the road to slip into third place. They lost to Juventus 2-0 in Turin on match day 2 and to Manchester City 2-1 at the Etihad on match day 3.

In no uncertain terms, this is a must win for Los Rojiblancos if they want to have a shot at the knockouts in Europe’s top flight competition. Anything short of it would almost certainly relegate them to another Europa League campaign at best. Los Rojiblancos will surely be counting on home advantage for this clash where they’ve recently rounded out into form at home behind a three-game winning streak that features a 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano, an eyebrow-raising 2-1 win over Barcelona and a 5-0 drubbing over Getafe.

Most recently, Sevilla are after a losing effort in Primera Division – a 2-1 loss to Villarreal on the road. That said Unai Emery was probably mindful of the week’s coming Champions League game with Manchester City and didn’t take too many risks. Sevilla’s prolific scorer Kevin Gameiro is already ruled out for this game while Ever Banega is doubtful.

As it is, Sevilla enter this game as the conspicuous home underdogs at +190 to win outright, a soccer betting outlook that belies their home form in Europe which includes a run of ten straight wins at home, nine of which were spearheaded by coach Unai Emry and span back-to-back Europe League titles.

 

Manchester City Road Faves
Premier League leaders Manchester City enter match day 4 as the slight road favorites, albeit trading at +150 soccer odds to the hosts’ +190 soccer odds to win outright. The draw is on offers of +260 soccer odds at bet365.

Man City rallied on match day 3, coming from behind to defeat Sevilla 2-1 at home. They’ll be looking to carry that momentum to southern Spain on Tuesday when the pair renews hostilities. However, City will be without some of its starlets it would seem: Sergio Aguero and David Silva, amongst several others.

Of course, City boasts enviable depth and quality that should transcend those absentees. What’s more, Manuel Pellegrini’s record in European competition with Manchester City is significantly better than Roberto Mancini’s, prompting this rather favorable outlook over Sevilla.

Under the Chilean manager the Citizens boast a 5-1-1 record in the competition’s away games compared to the 1-0-5 record with Mancini. What’s more, they Citizens finally made it into the knockouts of Europe’s top flight competition with the Chilean, albeit going out to Barcelona in the R16 two years in a row.

Most recently, the Citizens are riding a seven-game undefeated streak across several competitions going back to an away loss to the Spurs on September 26. They are 6-1-0 during that run of form, which includes outscoring opponents 17-7 combined.

Soccer Betting Verdict
There is no denying the class and quality of Manchester City, but one wonders whether they truly merit their favorable status for this game. Sevilla are a tough nut to crack at home, particularly in European competition of late. They seem to thrive under the international attention these home games have, bringing their best to the pitch. A run of ten straight wins at home is nothing to scoff at and that has us contemplating Sevilla at +190 to win outright on our soccer picks.

Soccer Picks: Sevilla +190 at Bet365.

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