Grab 'Under' on Chelsea vs. Dynamo for a Winning Champions League Pick

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

With the Blues so anemic on offense of late, who can this club turn to for goals? After a 0-0 scoreline in Ukraine, is taking the Under maybe the best idea for a clean pick here? Let’s investigate.


Odds Overview
Chelsea vs. Dynamo Kiev (Wednesday, November 4) [19:45] (MASN2, Fox Sports Florida, Fox Soccer 2GO USA, Fox Sports Carolinas, Fox Sports Net North, Fox Sports Ohio 2, Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Detroit, Fox Sports West, MASN, Fox Sports Midwest, Fox SportSouth, Fox Sports Tennessee, Fox Sports Southwest (US); BT Sport 2, BT Sport Live Streaming (UK); 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): English Premier League champions Chelsea welcome defending Ukrainian Premier League champions Dynamo Kiev to West London and Stamford Bridge next Wednesday for this UEFA Champions League Group G Group Stage fixture, which almost seems like a must-win situation for the host Blues. Soccer odds here have hosts Chelsea -162 favorites over visitors Dynamo Kiev who are big +500 underdogs here in England (at Bet365) in the Three-Way (at Winner) marketplace with the Draw is priced at +260. The Total Goals in this game is 2½ with the Over at -117 and the Under priced at -105 (at Bet365) while the Both Teams To Score Prop odds in this second leg sees the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ both set at -110 (at William Hill). The Draw No Bet odds see Chelsea priced at -400 and Dynamo Kiev at +300 (BetVictor). A good Prop possibly for this game: Correct Score: 0-0, 11/1 (Coral) and Chelsea 1-0 (+650, at BetVictor).


Chelsea FC
The troubles of Chelsea (1-1-1 in Group G, 3 GF-4 GA; 4 points) have been well documented of late, and seem to be the combined byproduct of a tired and egomaniacal Manager in José Mourinho; a very weak and unproductive Summer Transfer Window; the departure of several team icons like Didier Drogba (Montreal, MLS) Frank Lampard (Montreal, MLS) and Petr Cech (Arsenal, EPL); a couple of usually high-scoring stars who got a little fat and complacent over the Summer (Diego Costa, Eden Hazard); the absence of talented club Physio Eva Carneiro and Head Physio Jon Fearn—for the wrongest of all reasons; and some piss-poor play, to be perfectly honest. The Chelsea (25/1 to win UEFA Champions League, Sky Bet) of old is now an angst-ridden team seemingly scared of its Manager who seems to actually be embarrassing the SW6 club and its fans with his irrational antics. And here against Dynamo Kiev in this situation, sitting a point behind the Ukraine side with all the pressure on, Chelsea (ranked #4 by FIFA) will need Costa and Hazard to snap out of it and create, and hopefully score, and the rest of the Blues like CMF’s Cesc Fàbregas and Nemanja Matic, AMF’s Willian, Pedro, Oscar and striker and AS Monaco-loanee Radamel Falcao. And the Chelsea Defense—captain John Terry, Gary Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic, Kurt Zouma and César Azpilicueta—need to try to return to their solid form of the past three seasons with Cech now in North London and usual starting GK Thibaut Courtois injured and backup Asmir Begovic in the Blues starting 11 on the regular these days. This will not be an easy match for the English hosts, even with the site in their favor.


FC Dynamo Kiev
Dynamo Kiev (1-2-0 in Group G, 4 GF-2 GA; 5 points) and 41-year-old second-year Manager Serhiy Rebrov held Chelsea to a 0-0 Draw in the first meeting at NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium in Kyiv on October 20 in a game in which the visitors from the EPL actually played pretty good and were actually denied a Penalty in when Serhiy Rybalka took down Fabregas. The result marked the first time the Blues hadn’t scored in a Champions League game since April of 2014. Here at Stamford Bridge, expect Dynamo Kiev to be somewhat aggressive knowing it can almost oust the Blues from the Champions League with an upset and with 26-year-old, left-footed winger Andriy Yarmolenko (1 goal), Artem Kravets, Brazilian Striker Júnior Moraes (1 goal), MFs Serhiy Rybalka and Younès Belhanda, Oleh Gusev (1 goal) and Vitaliy Buyalskly (1 goal) and Paraguayan Derlis Alberto González, this team has enough Offensive firepower to do so and are catching Chelsea at the perfect time, although Dynamo Kiev’s (ranked #27 by FIFA) record on English soil is about as good as yours and mine. At GK, captain Olexandr Shovkovskiy holds it down for the defending Ukraine champs and with he and Begovic likely in goal for this game, goals could be few and far between.


Best Betting Approaches & Series Trends
These two historic European clubs have strangely only met once in all competitions—in the first meeting between the two here in Group G play a fortnight back, which ended in a 0-0 Draw in Kiev. So these two have hardly played and when they did, nothing really happened, which may have been a good thing for visitors Chelsea, which has really been scuffling since Mourinho banned team Physio Carneiro and Head Physio Fearn after the two ran onto the Stamford Bridge pitch in Injury Time to treat Eden Hazard after being beckoned by the Referee in a 2-2 Matchday 2 Draw with Swansea City. Chelsea has just 1 Win in its L6 competitions and not only is having trouble scoring goals, but is leaving huge spaces on Defense, possibly a result of having so many aging players on the pitch (Terry, Fàbregas, Ivanovic, Falcao). But Chelsea has only one Loss in its L11 Champions League games (5-5-1) and Dynamo Kiev (5000/1 to win UEFA Champions League, Sky Bet) is winless on English soil (0-2-8) after losing to Everton in UEFA Europa League play last year at Merseyside, 2-1. Here, even though a desperation game for Chelsea. The best angle seems to be the Under (2½, at Bet365) with an Offensively struggling host, a visitor which has never won in England, the 0-0 result in the first meeting, and those two aforementioned underrated GKs in Begovic and Shovkovskiy. A 0-0 Halftime score here is very possible and may be worth working into your Plan of Attack for this match when choosing your soccer picks.

Predicted Final Score: Chelsea 1 - Dynamo Kiev 0
Free UEFA Champions League Pick: Under 2½ -105 (at Bet365)

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