Good Betting Value in Chelsea vs. Swansea Premier League

Lee Phelps

Thursday, September 11, 2014 10:44 PM GMT

Chelsea F.C. will host Swansea at Stamford Bridge in Fulham, London on September 13th in what will surely be an exciting match. We preview this matchup and offer our free soccer picks.  

Chelsea vs. Swansea
It’s top versus second at Stamford Bridge this weekend and something has got to give with the remaining 100% records on the line. Swansea have started well despite their manager Garry Monk not being too enamoured with his side’s first two performances, he was obviously delighted with the wins against Manchester United and Burnley. The latest three points came with three goals and a clean sheet against West Brom.

There is no denying the Swans’ opening day win at Old Trafford was a fantastic result and not one I saw coming, but Manchester United weren’t themselves that day, or on any day since, and Monk has masterminded wins against relegation favourites Burnley and a team who look like they could be down there with them at the end of the season in West Brom. You simply can’t compare any of the three results to what they have on their plate here.

 

Chelsea Motoring
Chelsea F.C. is already moving through the gears, with eleven goals scored in three matches. The only real negative is the three goals they conceded against Everton, but I expect a reaction to that this Saturday. Diego Costa has scored four in three and is now around the 2/1 to be the division’s top scorer. He withdrew from the Spanish squad this week, but Jose Mourinho is very hopeful he will start this match. If he doesn’t Didier Drogba or Loic Remy will deputise.

I don’t see much change at the back for the Blues, with Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry and Azpilicueta given the chance to rectify the Everton performance. The only possible alteration would be Filipe Luis at left-back.

Chelsea looked a little loose in midfield at Goodison so we could see Ramires or John Obi Mikel with Nemanja Matic, allowing Cesc Fabregas to move up the pitch. Whichever way you cut it and whatever team he selects, they will be too strong.

 

Swansea Defense
The Welsh team have only conceded one goal this season, but again you have to look at the opposition. Manchester United had four shots on target inside the area, Burnley had the same, although three were blocked and West Brom had two inside the 18 yard box. Chelsea had five versus Burnley and scored three of them, nine against Leicester and scored two of them and nine versus Everton and scored six of them. That tells me if Swansea allows Chelsea five or more shots in the area, they will concede more than one goal against the Premier League favourites.

Garry Monk should send his team out to defend like Leicester did and have the confidence to hit them on the break, after all Swansea have only once been beaten well by Chelsea and that was their very first meeting in 2011 when the Blues ran out 4-1 winners. Since then they have played each other seven times and each of those has featured under 2.5 goals, the last five have all seen at least one clean sheet, so a win to nil could well be worth looking at. Swansea hasn’t scored a goal against the Blues in any of the last four and that’s how I see this going.

 

Soccer Picks
Chelsea to win to nil is even money and that looks a good bet. Given the head-to-heads, soccer odds have the under 2.5 priced at 5/4 and the Chelsea win and under 2.5 goals at 13/5. I like all of those.

When deciding on our soccer picks, one final thought stems from the last game they played. It was a Chelsea 1-0 win at the Liberty and it was lively. So much so Mourinho didn’t shake Monk’s hand afterwards. There were 65 booking points that day (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) and with the same managers and many similar players in the Welsh team’s line-up, I can see a few tasty challenges here. Over 30 booking points is 6/4 and over 45 is 3/1. Kevin Friend is the referee and in his two matches this season he has handed out four cards and five cards, so isn’t shy about punishing players!
 

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