Get Your Best Soccer Picks On These Champions League Props

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 1:17 PM GMT

The deciding leg of the Champions League Semis is upon us. In this space, we’re propping up Real Madrid and Bayern Munich to emerge into the final on our soccer picks.

Champions League First Leg Recap
Both semi-finals were left relatively up for grabs after the first leg concluded last week. Ten-time champions Real Madrid held semi-final debutants Manchester City scoreless at the Etihad while Atletico Madrid defeated Bayern Munich 1-0 at the Calderon. With both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich looking ahead to home legs to decide their Champions League fate, the pair can well fancy their chances to advance into the final.

Indeed, the market looks favourably upon both sides winning at home this week (See Table 1). Bayern Munich are priced as the firm favourites to win at the Allianz Arena as are Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.

Table 1: Champions League Match Betting Odds

Matchup

Home

Draw

Away

Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid

-154

+290

+500

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

-188

+350

+550

 

Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid
The tie is delicately poised on a 1-0 score with the Spanish side to the good, but Bayern Munich have home advantage for the second leg where they are tough to beat. Quite rightly match betting markets have the Bundesliga giants trading at -154 soccer odds to win outright. By that same token, Diego Simeone’s side is going to have all to do to make good on their +500 price tag.

By virtue of the 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in the first leg, outrights having been re-evaluated for the tournament winner. Previously favoured Bayern Munich see themselves backed in to +225 from +150 ahead of the first leg and falling behind newly-minted favourites Real Madrid. At the same time, Atletico Madrid’s odds were cut from+350 to +225 in outrights, putting them on par with Pep Guardiola’s side. 

However, this isn’t the first time Pep Guardiola’s side find themselves in a bit of a pickle. Against Juventus, they led 2-0 in Turin before the Italians stormed back to draw the first leg 2-2. Then, in the second leg of the R16 tie, it was the Old Lady that pulled ahead with a 2-0 lead in the first half before Bayern stormed back late in the second to draw level 2-2 and send the tie into extra-time and take the win 6-4 on aggregate.

One cannot underestimate Atletico Madrid’s lead of course, but, the same goes for Bayern Munich. It’s worth noting, Atletico Madrid are priced at -150 to qualify for the final while they are trading at whopping +500 soccer odds to win outright. That’s technically because they don’t necessarily need a win – a draw at the Allianz Arena would see Diego Simeone’s side through to the final, something that is quite a reasonable outcome given they are one of the best defences in Europe. It’s a popular bet at +290 soccer odds in many soccer betting circles.

So too is Pep Guardiola’s side, one of the best defences in Europe. Where Bayern Munich do have the slight advantage is on offense. They are more adventurous and attacking-minded than Atletico. As such, Bayern Munich have every chance of reversing the one-goal deficit.

Bayern Munich are favoured to win the second leg at home at -154 soccer odds or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook, but they are the more tempting play at +110 soccer odds in prop betting markets to qualify for the final.

Soccer Picks: Prop Up Bayern Munich at +110 to qualify

 

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
Real Madrid and Manchester City are delicately poised on a scoreless draw going into the second leg, what is a very advantageous position for Manuel Pellegrini’s side to find itself in. Of course, most would have it theoretically though. In reality, the expectation is for Los Blancos to exert their might over the Citizens at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

That is nowhere more so evinced than in prop betting markets where Real Madrid are clear-cut favourites at -225 soccer odds to qualify for the final. That’s over and above match betting odds where they are priced at firm -188 soccer odds to win outright. Conversely, Man City are not only the +550 soccer bet to upset Real Madrid but also they are the +180 soccer bet to qualify for the final, what would be the first-ever appearance at Europe’s top-flight club competition showpiece.

By all accounts, Real Madrid are the popular soccer pick to advance into the final but soccer bettors looking for value on their wagering slips might consider alternative ways to play this second leg over and above match betting markets. For instance the Result and both teams to score offers up a Real win and ‘Yes’ option at +220 and a Real win and ‘No’ option for both teams to score at +150.

Manchester City are sure to fancy their chances seeing as the tie is far from decided. We fully expect they’ll descend on the Spanish capital with attacking intent as such we like the YES option for both teams to score. Whether the Citizens have what it takes to upset the ten-time champions is another matter entirely and given their season to date we’re wary to back them on our soccer picks.

Of course, a lot hinges on whether Cristiano Ronaldo plays on Wednesday. The Portuguese striker singlehandedly rescued Real Madrid’s Champions League bid when he scored a hat-trick against Wolfsburg in the quarterfinals to lift Real to the 3-2 win on aggregate at the Bernabeu. As yet, he remains a doubt for the fixture. Zinedine Zidane has a star-studded cast at his disposal, which includes Gareth Bale, who scored the winner over Real Sociedad at the weekend, but, arguably, Ronaldo is the player that time and time again comes through for Los Blancos in big moments and on the big stage. His presence is sure to make a difference. Going on the assumption he’ll play – even though at the risk of his EURO 2016 participation – Real should come through for their backers.

Soccer Picks: Real Madrid to win and both teams to score +220