2022 Genesis Invitational Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

Our golf betting experts offer up their top picks and predictions for the PGA Tour’s Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.

Max Homa returns home to Pacific Palisades, CA, to defend his 2021 Genesis Invitational title. He’ll be challenged by an exceptionally strong field that includes each of the top-10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). World No. 1 Jon Rahm enters a tournament as the betting favorite for the fifth time in 2022, but he’s 0-for-4 so far.

Here are our PGA Tour expert outright, matchup, and prop picks for the Genesis Invitational.

Genesis Invitational Expert Picks

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Genesis Invitational Picks to Win

Zalatoris (+2900 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Will Zalatoris tied for 15th in this event last year with 1.23 strokes gained: putting per round on the difficult Poa annua greens. He lost strokes off the tee and around the greens, but he’s averaging 0.64 and 0.25 strokes gained per round in those two respects this season. He’s also averaging 1.21 SG: approach per round to rank second in this field.

The 25-year-old took last week off following his disappointing playoff loss to Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open, so we shouldn’t need to worry about a letdown event. He climbed back to No. 29 in the OWGR with that result. Zalatoris is fourth on Tour in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, and seventh in bogey avoidance this season. 

He’ll look to follow suit of fellow former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Scottie Scheffler in claiming his first Tour victory. - McLaren

Smith (+2200 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Earlier this season, Cameron Smith won the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Hawaii. What significance does this win have? It takes a similar skill set to win at Kapalua as it does at The Riviera Country Club this week for the Genesis Invitational.

The Club at Nine Bridges, where The CJ Cup was last held in 2019, is another course that is very similar to The Riviera Country Club. Smith finished T-3 in The CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges in 2019.

Although Smith trails only Patrick Cantlay and Rahm in total strokes gained per round this season, among qualified golfers, he shares just the 10th-best odds. In my opinion, he is the best bang for your buck at +2200 as he has a strong course history at Riviera Country Club. - Metler

McIlroy (+2200 via DraftKings)

Are we getting the OWGR's fifth-ranked golfer at +2200? Sign me up for that.

Rory McIlroy has an excellent course history here, with three top-5 finishes in his previous three starts at Riviera. His ability to drive the ball long and straight will be a tremendous asset this week. McIlroy ranks second in SG: off-the-tee in the last 24 rounds on tour, which is important, as length and accuracy are paramount at this course. 

Success at Quail Hollow has long correlated to Riviera – a course that McIlroy has two career victories on, including last summer. The fantastic recent form that the Northern Irishman brings into the Genesis Invitational is even more appealing. In his last event in Saudi Arabia, he was in contention coming into the 18th hole, but an errant shot into the water dashed his hopes. 

Look for Rory to carry momentum into this loaded field and be in contention on Sunday. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Genesis Invitation Prop Picks

Genesis Invitational Longshot Picks

Molinari (+15000 via PointsBet)

I’m loving the former Champion Golfer of the Year at these grossly inflated odds. Francesco Molinari tied for eighth in this event last year with 1.07 SG: tee-to-green per round; however, he’s still averaging 0.13 total strokes lost to the field per round over his 20 career rounds at Riviera CC. That’s what’s boosting his odds, and bettors stand to benefit by fading the poor history.

Molinari played light schedules in 2020 and 2021 while going through a cross-continental move amid the COVID-19 pandemic. His 2022 campaign has started promisingly enough with three straight made cuts, including a T-6 finish against a quality field at The American Express.

Molinari’s rank of T-36 in sand save percentage is his best among my key stats for this week, but I look for the veteran to build on last year’s result in this event and continue his resurgent start to the year. - McLaren

Ortiz (+15000 via PointsBet)

In selecting a longshot each week, I always favor players who have won previously on the PGA Tour. Golf is as much a mental game as anything else, and I like to support players who I am confident can handle the pressure on a Sunday. In 2020, Carlos Ortiz defeated Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama to win the Houston Open. If it came down to it, he would be able to defeat a star-studded field.

This past Sunday, Ortiz drained a hole in one on the 16th hole at the WM Phoenix Open, and he eagled the 17th hole after his ace. There were many positives that Ortiz could draw from the final round as he gained strokes off-the-tee, on approach, and with his putter.

Although Ortiz has +15000 odds of winning this week, he has a strong history at The Riviera Country Club as well. The 28-year-old has averaged 1.46 total strokes gained over 18 rounds at the Genesis Invitational. - Metler

Ortiz (+15000 via PointsBet)

Ortiz is coming off a T-33 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but he shot under par in three of four rounds. 

He has a solid history at the Genesis Invitational with finishes of 20th, ninth, and two finishes of 26th. Additionally, he likes starting hot here and finished in the top 10 after the first round three times.

Ortiz was building momentum in the fall, finishing second at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in November. 

He is garnering more respect in the betting market, as well. Last week a bettor wagered $1,510 at +15000 odds on him to win the WMPO – a sign of things to come? Let’s hope. - Anderson

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Genesis Invitational Top Matchup Picks

Johnson (+100) vs. Thomas (via DraftKings)

We missed out on some early value on Dustin Johnson in the tournament outright markets, but I’m still looking for as many shares as possible. The No. 6 player in the OWGR opened on Monday as +1800 to win, with most books quickly dropping that to +1600 or lower. Justin Thomas has a higher implied win probability at DraftKings and FanDuel, while BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet have them as equals.

Thus, I’ll take the value with Johnson as a slight underdog in this tournament matchup at DraftKings. He leads everyone in this field who has more than one appearance at Riviera CC with 2.43 total strokes gained per round across his 52 rounds played. He won this event in 2017, while Thomas has a top finish of runner-up in 2019.

Thomas has the edge in most key statistical measures, but I’ll trust the impressive history of the higher-ranked golfer in this marquee matchup of former world No. 1s. - McLaren

Watson (+100) vs. Scott (via DraftKings)

This is an intriguing matchup between past champions as we have the 2020 champ, Adam Scott, taking on the three-time winner, Bubba Watson. Watson has made a career out of dominating two distinct tournaments, The Genesis Invitational and the Masters.

Watson's course history is not the only reason I am looking forward to backing him this week. While the WM Phoenix Open was Watson's first tournament of the season, he displayed outstanding form. Watson was striping his irons and averaged 1.94 SG: approach during the week.

My decision to support Watson in this matchup was also motivated by the price. At -110 I would be reluctant to back Watson, but with an even-money line of +100, I will take the three-time champ, especially after seeing his iron play last week. - Metler

Finau (+100) vs. Homa (via DraftKings)

Homa defeated Tony Finau in a wild playoff at this event last year. Finau rebounded later in the season by winning The Northern Trust for his second career PGA win - a relief as the field was much stronger than his previous victory in Puerto Rico. 

Finau has excellent course history. He was the runner-up last year, T-13 in 2019, and T-2 in 2018. He enters in poor form after missing two straight cuts; however, he has shown a penchant to rebound nicely, amassing three top-10 finishes following other missed cuts. 

Homa is coming off a strong T-14 at the WMPO but faded in Sunday's final round while putting poorly and displaying general inconsistency. 

He undoubtedly has upside but doesn’t display the consistency needed - routinely playing well only to follow it up with a missed cut. Finau has a higher pedigree and better history at this course. At even money, I’ll gladly back Finau in this spot. - Anderson

Genesis Invitational Top Prop Picks

Top American: Johnson (+1200 via BetMGM)

Johnson’s third by the odds behind Cantlay and Thomas in this pool at most books. However, his odds range from +1000 to a market-high of +1200 at BetMGM.

Again, we’ll trust in his elite history at one of the PGA Tour’s most respected courses. He tied for eighth last year even with 0.02 strokes lost per round with the putter. He was sixth among those to make the cut with 1.88 SG: tee-to-green per round.

Johnson’s odds dip just to +1200 from +1600 in the outright market at BetMGM. That’s a profit cut I’m willing to surrender while removing the threat of Rahm, Smith, McIlroy, and Hideki Matsuyama. - McLaren

Non-American winner (+100 via DraftKings)

It is USA against the rest of the world in this prop and I like the plus money that can be won on the non-USA side at DraftKings. I believe several players from outside the United States are in contention to win this tournament.

In particular, you get Rahm. Aside from him, you have the Australian trio of Smith, Scott, and Marc Leishman, who have all performed well on this golf course. Both McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick have a successful track record at The Riviera Country Club, and could also win outright.

One immediate reaction to this prop is that 10 out of the last 12 winners of this tournament have been American. If you take a closer look at the field and the statistics, you may find that this might be the strongest non-USA field in a long time when considering course history and recent performance.

Due to the American side being juiced to -140, I am backing the internationals at +100. - Metler

Top-20 finish: Martin Laird (+550 via FanDuel)

Martin Laird has three top-11 finishes in his last six appearances at Riviera and is playing well now with three top-25 finishes in his last five events. 

Coming off a T-14 last week at the WMPO, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Laird making a charge come Sunday. - Anderson

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Koepka

A lot of people may assume Brooks Koepka’s back after his T-3 finish last week. While it was his most impressive performance since a co-runner-up at the 2021 PGA Championship, he still lost strokes around the greens and won’t be able to be that ineffective in that area at Riviera.

He has just 10 rounds of experience at Riviera CC with 0.12 total strokes gained per round. The former world No. 1 tied for 38th in this event last year, but he lost strokes on the greens and on approach. His putting is improved early this season, but the venue is not well-suited to his continued struggles around the greens.

His odds to win this week match what they were last week in Scottsdale. They’re not accounting for the much stronger field or his significantly worse track record at this course. There’s no value with odds ranging from +3100 to +3500. - McLaren

Cantlay

I am not implying that Cantlay will miss the cut or anything crazy like that by fading him this week. Cantlay is arguably the best golfer in the world at present and he will be a force to be reckoned with all season long.

By fading Cantlay this week, I mean I am fading all of his betting odds. Considering each of the top-10 players in the OWGR are in attendance, I believe that the price of +1000 is way too short.

Cantlay was given +1000 odds of winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was made up of a significantly weaker field than this week's Genesis Invitational. Besides the weaker field, it was also a course that Cantlay has a stronger profile on. His current price point of +1000 merely does not appeal to me. - Metler

Watson

Watson will be a popular pick in DFS and one-and-done pools this week, and for good reason. He won this event three times and recently finished second in the Saudi International.

However, he’s perennially been volatile and has missed the cut or withdrew from this event seven out of 15 times. Indeed, boom or bust. At a relatively short number in a loaded field, I'll pass. - Anderson

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