Free Week 8 Picks for Levante vs. Real Madrid in La Liga

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 13, 2014 2:49 PM GMT

There's a lot of excellent betting value for Week 8 of Spanish Primera League between host Levante and defending European champions Real Madrid but bettors need to be creative to find a fair-valued pick.

Betting Odds Overview for Levante vs. Real Madrid
Burdened with two early losses in La Liga, fourth-place Real Madrid (5-0-2) should be a bear the rest of the season against the clubs from 6th to 20th place in Spain’s top flight of soccer and that’s definitely not a good thing for host and 17th-place Levante (1-2-4, 4PF-11 GA) here on Saturday, although it has played Los Blancos fairly tough here in Valencia, going 1-1-2 (4 GF-5 GA) in its L4. Oddsmakers have obviously made visiting Real Madrid big favorites (-450, Ladbrokes) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace with the odds on host Levante at +1200 (12/1) and the Draw priced at a robust +550. The Total Goals number in this Week 8 La Liga match is 3½ O/U -110 (Coral), so, with this possibly ending with a final score of Real Madrid 2-0, 3-0 or 3-1, it’s hard to find much value in these two conventional ways to bet on soccer games. So, the best bet here is to look at the Props wagers and find something more sensible working backwards from the premise that Los Blancos win over offensively challenged Levante by 2 goals or more.

 

Levante
As mentioned, Les Granotes (The Frogs) have surprisingly played Real Madrid pretty closely here at Estadi Ciutat de València over the last four league meetings, going 1-1-2 (2-3, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0) and only losing by 1 goal in their 2 losses. But Levante and manager José Luis Mendilibar are running into an angry Real Madrid side which knows it can’t afford any losses or even any draws against lesser league opponents and struggling Levante—which has scored just 4 goals all season and heads into this fixture 1 slim point above the relegation zone in La Liga—falls into that category. To put it into some perspective, Madrid’s Gareth Bale has as many goals (4) as Levante does halfway through October so this would be a good match to bet Real Madrid To Win To Nil (+120 Paddy Power) knowing that Levante has been anemic on the attack and that CR7 & Co. will be motivated by the losses to Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad from here on out making for some very fertile betting grounds.

 

Real Madrid
Cristiano Ronaldo (La Liga-leading 13 goals) used an ice bag on his left knee in Portugal’s 2-1 Euro 2016 qualifier loss to France at the Stade de France over this past weekend and the rumor mill that is constantly swirling around the legend swirled, CR7 was removed in the 76th minute of the match with 0 shots and he poo-pooed rumors that it’s worse (the condition of his knee) than some have suggested saying the use of the ice bag “just a precaution.”  But even if Ronaldo is a bit beat up, the defending UEFA Champions League winners still have loads of talent including new summer signings James Rodríguez, Toni Kroos and Javier Hernández and guys like Karim Benzema (3 goals), Bale, Luka Modric, Isco, Jesé and Álvaro Morata, among others. Whether or not manager Carlo Ancelotti sticks with embattled goalkeeper and captain Iker Casillas remains to be seen, but knowing that he (Casillas) has that kind of pressure on him is another good reason to look at the aforementioned Real Madrid To Win To Nil (+120 Paddy Power) proposition wager in this game.

The only way a bettor can realistically use Real Madrid -450 (Ladbrokes) here (on the Three-Way line) is as a parlay element with maybe some other monster-priced European favorites like La Liga rivals Barcelona -1000 (bet365) who host Eibar (+2000; Draw +800) later in the day. Like in many Real Madrid games, the big question here isn’t going to be if it wins or not, but by how much. And will Ronaldo be healthy enough to be his normal productive self? Probably. But still a serious thought for both Total Goals bettors as well as anyone contemplating a bet here on the Asian Handicap.

 

Best Betting Approaches
Speaking of the Asian Handicap, that seems one of two wise approaches to this match with Real Madrid -1.75 (-166, bet365) and Real Madrid -2 (-116) seeming like the best fit with the presumed scores discussed earlier in the soccer odds overview (2-0, 3-0, 3-1). And with Levante having so much trouble scoring and the Total (Goals) so high (3½), one can presume goals will be scored meaning that Real Madrid (6-1-1 L8 vs. Levante in La Liga, 19 GF- 7 GA) should get at least 2 and maybe 3 (or more) providing some perceived value then with a Real Madrid First Half/Real Madrid Second Half +120 (Ladbrokes) prop bet—a hopefully wise way to approach taking Los Blancos without having some heavy lumber (-450) on the Three-Way line. In the end, the visitors will know they can’t slip up here and will find a way to win with possibly some other players besides Ronaldo stepping up and scoring some goals to show they can come through even if and when their Big Dog is limping.


Free Soccer Picks: Real Madrid Asian Handicap -2 -116 (bet365), Real Madrid First Half/Real Madrid Second Half +120 (Ladbrokes)

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