Free UFC Fight Night 109 Picks: Gustafsson Vs. Teixeira

Jason Lake

Thursday, May 25, 2017 2:25 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 25, 2017 2:25 PM UTC

Alexander Gustafsson was already a big favorite on the UFC odds board for Sunday’s main event against Glover Teixeira. Now the big Swede has gotten even chalkier.

Maybe we’re being a bit too cynical about Alexander Gustafsson here at the ranch. This is one of the best fighters in the recent history of the UFC Light Heavyweight division, a man who took both Jon Jones (–1000) and Daniel Cormier (–315) to the limit in their respective title bouts. But when Gustafsson climbed to –275 on the UFC odds board for Sunday’s fight in Stockholm against Glover Teixeira, we felt compelled to put our weight behind the underdog.

That’s not the way the market sees it. As we go to press, Gustafsson has moved to –325 and above, while Teixeira is now available as high as +267. That definitely adds more value to our UFC picks, but where’s all this steam coming from? There hasn’t been a lot of buzz around this fight, and the biggest piece of news from either camp was Gustafsson becoming a proud papa earlier this month.

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Welcome my princess Ava. Amazingly proud of mom Moa and her strength during the delivery. Happiest man alive❤️🙏🏻

— Alexander Gustafsson (@AlexTheMauler) May 12, 2017

The Dozens

As for Teixeira, we know what we’re getting with the Brazilian veteran; he’s fought 12 times since making his Octagon debut in 2012, winning five times by knockout and three more by submission while earning four performance bonuses along the way. Teixeira only has three losses in the UFC, and they were all against fighters who have beaten Gustafsson: Jones (–625), Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (–295), and Phil Davis (+170).

Still not feeling it for the underdog? No worries – you can always hit the UFC props market and take Sunday’s fight not to go to a decision (–180) if you want something a little less chalky. But we’ll go in the other direction and recommend a small wager on Teixeira to win inside the distance at a tasty +456.

Free UFC Pick: Teixeira inside the distance (+456)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
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