Free Soccer Picks: Trust Wolfsburg To Win Outright When Visiting Gent

Martin Green

Monday, February 15, 2016 12:32 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 15, 2016 12:32 PM GMT

Wolfsburg travel to Belgium in woeful form to face Gent, which are competing in the Champions League for the first time. Find out who will be in our soccer picks.

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Free Champions League Pick: Wolfsburg +135
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

 

VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg travel to Belgium in woeful form, and the Champions League will provide a welcome distraction from the misery they have endured in the Bundesliga in recent weeks. For Gent to have made it this far is a phenomenal achievement. It is the first time they have ever played in the Champions League and to have reached the last 16 is something they would not have anticipated in their wildest dreams, but this is likely to be one tie too far.

Wolfsburg are as low as -333 with Bet365 and Bet Victor to beat Wolfsburg over two legs and qualify for the quarter-finals. But you can get a decent price on them to win this first leg for two reasons – they are the away side and a draw would be sufficient, and they are in really poor form at the moment. Since returning from the winter break, they have lost 3-2 to Eintracht Frankfurt, drawn 1-1 with Koln and in their last game suffered an embarrassing 3-0 mauling at the hands of Schalke. They weren’t much better before the winter break and haven’t won a league match since November 21. That has seen them slide down the Bundesliga and after finishing second last season they are now eighth, a full 26 points behind runaway leaders Bayern Munich.

In the Champions League they have been great, however. They were dumped in arguably the toughest group, along with PSV Eindhoven, Man Utd and CSKA Moscow, but they finished top after winning four and losing two.

 

KAA Gent
Gent won the Belgian league for the first time last season, after 115 years of trying, finally breaking the dominance of Anderlech, Standard Liege and Club Brugge. They are three points clear of Brugge at the top of the table this season and could well defend their title. But their Champions League run has been even more exciting. For a club playing in Europe’s premier competition for the first time ever, they have enjoyed a fairy-tale campaign, finishing second in their group and qualifying for the last 16.

But they were helped by the dreadful form of Lyon and Valencia. Valencia are currently just four points above the relegation zone in La Liga, having sacked their coach, and Lyon are seventh in Ligue 1 and 33 points behind leaders PSG. Both teams made a dreadful fist of the Champions League campaigns, allowing the minnows Gent to qualify. Gent fans must have feared the worst after they took just one point from their first three games, losing to Zenit and Valencia, but they rallied and beat Valencia and then Lyon. In their last game, Zenit had already won five out of five and topped the group, so they rested players, took their foot off and allowed Gent to win 2-1, sending fans into jubilation.

 

Betting Analysis
But the fairy-tale is highly likely to end in the last 16. The biggest question is whether Wolfsburg will win both legs, or take a draw away and then go all out for the win in the second leg at the Volkswagen Arena. Because of this uncertainty, you can get a good price on a Wolfsburg win in this first leg tie. They are not odds-on and Sportingbet has the best price, offering +140. That is a very tempting offer. Gent are +230 with William Hill, while the draw is +240 with Bet Victor. It is likely to be a close match, but the German league is vastly superior to the Belgian league, and Wolfsburg are vastly superior to Gent, despite their recent travails, so it is worth backing them outright. BetVictor is offering +800 on a 1-0 win to Wolfsburg and +950 on a 2-1 win to Wolfsburg, which also look good if you want to hedge your soccer picks. You could bet on Wolfsburg and under 4.5 goals also, which is +160 with Stan James.

One major problem for Wolfsburg is the absence of injured top scorer Bas Dost. Understudy Nicklas Bentdner has netted just twice all season, and goals have been hard to come by for this Wolfsburg team. In Julian Draxler and Andre Schurrle, they have two excellent creators, but they have not been putting chances away. It might be worth avoiding the first goalscorer market in this match. It is likely to be a low scoring game and the under 2.5 goals looks a decent bet, with William Hill offering -110.

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