Free Soccer Picks & Tips for Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, January 14, 2014 7:17 PM GMT

Liverpool and Aston Villa collide in week 22 EPL betting at Anfield Stadium. Join us as we deliver our soccer-betting verdict on this highly anticipated clash on the weekend soccer-betting menu.

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Liverpool’s high ambitions

Since spending a short stint at the top of the table, Liverpool’s lofty ambitions are becoming widely recognised as credible – they are listed as the fourth favourites at +850 to win the title and the solid -150 favourites to finish in the Top Four this season according to Bet365.

Liverpool are sat fourth in the table on a 13-3-5 record and 42 points through 21 laps, an overall record that includes an impressive 9-0-1 mark at Anfield stadium; only Man City and Chelsea boast better home records – the former a perfect ten out of ten while the latter undefeated with nine wins and a draw. They are six points adrift of league-leading Arsenal, a gulf that correlates to back-to-back defeats to Chelsea and Man City during the festive season as well a two-match stint that featured a rare scoring drought for Suarez.  

Aiding along Liverpool’s campaign to its lofty heights is Luis Suarez, arguably, the league’s best player and current hot favourite to finish the season as the top scorer at -1600 at Bet365. In fact, Suarez has no competition right now in this category. Man City’s Sergio Aguero, his nearest rival, is listed at a whopping +1100 soccer odds right now.

It’s also interesting to note that in spite of Suarez’s prolific scoring this season, which sees him at the top of the list with 22 goals (nine more than Aguero), Liverpool are the second highest scoring side with 51 goals. Man City lead the league with 59 goals with contributions from several players such as Yaya Touré (10 goals) and Álvaro Negredo (9 goals), to name a few. However, if Suarez and Co. continue their winning form and high scoring ways on 2014, that gap will surely close.

In fact, since the New Year the Reds have been firing at all cylinders, scoring seven and conceding just three over two games. They are flush off a comprehensive 5-3 victory over Stoke City at the weekend, a game in which Suarez netted two goals to snap his scoring drought. The win also marked their second victory in a row following 2-1 defeats to Chelsea and Man City and saw Suarez return to his scoring ways after an unusually quiet Christmas from him.

Odds stacked against Aston Villa

Predictably, Liverpool enter their home affair with Aston Villa as the hot favourites at -450 soccer odds to win outright. The visitors meanwhile are deemed as the +1000 underdogs or thereabouts depending on the sportsbook of choice while the draw is tipped at staggering +550 odds.

This is as lopsided a market as any we’ve seen this season, suggesting Aston Villa will have all to do if they hope to mastermind an upset at Anfield, not unlike their victory over Arsenal at Emirates to kickstart the season.

The chances of that happening though are slim to none, truth be told. The Villans are sat 11th in the Premier League table with a 6-5-10 record that includes a modest 4-3-3 road record. Granted the Villans are marginally better on the road than they are at home but their only noteworthy scalp was the 3-1 win over the Gunners on August 17. Since then they haven’t beaten a quality side on the road. It doesn’t help matters that they are 1-1-3 in their last five.

Soccer Betting Verdict

Aston Villa’s current form doesn’t make good reading and, as such, they are the quintessential long shot bet to mastermind the upset. On the flipside, Aston Villa’s suspect form is encouraging for Liverpool and it should send them into this clash with measured optimism. Not that they need more confidence but it definitely adds weight to their -450 soccer odds to win outright.  What’s more, Luis Suarez should fancy his chances of boosting his goal tally on the season against a Villa defence that has allowed 27 goals through 21 laps. He’s listed at -275 to score anytime at Bet365. And speaking of Villa’s doggy defence, sportsbooks favour the Over 2.5 at -225, soccer pick that holds appeal as well in this match.

So to wrap up, our recommended soccer picks in this clash are as follows: Liverpool to win outright at -450 soccer odds and the Over 2.5 at -225. Take Suarez at -275 to continue his prolific scoring ways as well. For our bonus EPL pick, we fancy Liverpool to win both halves at -175, a soccer pick that is supported by their record of winning games through halftime, which stands at 14-4-3 on the season and includes a 9-1-0 record at Anfield. 

Soccer Picks: Liverpool to win outright