Free Soccer Picks for Serie A Week 7: Inter Milan vs. Napoli

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 13, 2014 3:41 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 13, 2014 3:41 PM GMT

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan, Italy is the site of this Week 7 Serie A match between host Inter Milan and Napoli in a match in which the road team actually looks like the better pick.

Odds Overview
Inter Milan vs. Napoli, Sunday, (beIN sports USA/beIN SPORTS CONNECT (US), BT Sport 1 (UK), 19:45 CET/2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): Last season when these two clubs played in this fixture here at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan, it ended 0-0 (in April of this year) but this meeting in the 7th round of fixtures should be different with 7th-place Napoli (3-1-2, 8 GF- 7 GA) likely to give 10th-place Inter Milan (2-2-2, 11 GF-8 GA) more of a run this time around. Oddsmakers have made host Internazionale +137 favorites on the Three-Way (Winner) odds marketplace (bet365) with visiting Napoli a nice +187 underdog and the Draw priced at +240 on the soccer odds board. The Total Goals odds for the match is 2½ Under -125 (Over Even, bet365) while the Both Teams To Score prop bet is priced at Yes -125 (No -110, bet365). And the Inter Milan Draw No Bet odds are -129 (BetVictor) with the Napoli Draw No Bet priced at an appealing +110 in this game.

 

Napoli
The Partenopei and head coach Rafael Benítez have a decent start (3-1-2) in Serie A play this season—its only loss is a Week 4 setback at Udinese, 1-0—but still could really use a win here to better position themselves for a UEFA Champions League or Europa League spot for next season with defending league champions Juventus (6-0-0, 18 points), AS Roma (5-0-1, 15 points), Sampdoria (4-2-0, 14 points) and aforementioned Udinese (4-1-1, 13 points) all off to really hot starts in Italy’s top flight of soccer. Benítez has to still be a little bitter about the way he was fired from Inter, but the 54-year-old has done a pretty nice job with Napoli (host Hellas Verona Week 8) since leaving Chelsea and Stamford Bridge.

Napoli, which usually lines up in a 4-2-3-1 tactical formation, will look to striker Gonzalo Higuaín (+140 Anytime Goalscorer, Bwin), four-goal scorer José Callejón (+180), Dries Mertens (+200), Duran Zapata (+200), Lorenzo Insigne (+225), Marek Hamšík (+225) or maybe even one of the former Swansea City duo Michu (+225) or Jonathan de Guzmán (+400) to get them on the scoreboard. And, unlike last season in Milan in this fixture, Napoli—which has scored in 5 of 6 matches so far this Serie A season—should find a way to get at least one goal in this fairly important early season meeting and with 24-year-old Brazilian Rafael now in goal and holding down the defense.

 

Inter Milan
Nerazzurri head coach Walter Mazzarri also has some feelings for the opponent here on Sunday, as he too once coached at Napoli, although his departure was on much better terms than were Benítez’s at Inter. So far this season, Inter Milan (2-2-2) has been less than impressive and looked a lot like last season’s version and Inter’s 11 GF-8 GA statistic is very deceiving as its’ 7-0 home in against league doormat Sassuolo in Week 2 means that this team has only scored 4 goals in its other 5 league matches heading in to this match, putting an awful lot of pressure on Nerazzurri goalkeeper Samir Handanovic.

Inter, which usually lines up in a 3-5-2 formation, will look to Mauro Icardi (+150 Anytime Scorer, Bwin), Rodrigo Palacio (+180), Hernanes (+300), Fredy Guarin (+300) and 20-year-old Mateo Kovacic (+350), among others, to provide the offense here in a game which is actually much more important for them—just looking at the standings and contemplating a 2-3-2 Inter record heading into Week 8 (at Cesena). That expected desperation from host Inter Milan here seems like it could be a good thing for the Over (2½ +100, bet365) as well as the Both Teams To Score prop (Yes -125, bet365), the latter a seemingly better avenue to trying to make some money here as opposed to picking a potential winner in a game that could very well end 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2.

 

Best Betting Approaches
Taking a shot at underdog Napoli at the healthy plus (+187, bet365) is tempting here as is playing the Total Goals Over 2½, but the Both Teams To Score prop bet hitting (Yes -125, bet365) seems like one of the safest routes to go as Inter has scored in all three of its Home games here in Milan (7, 3, 1) while Napoli has scored in 2 of its 3 Road games and actually has more firepower than Inter with very talented attackers including my favorite choice for Anytime Goalscorer here in this game in José Callejón (+180, Bwin). Inter is 2-2-1 (5 GF-5 GA) in the last 4 meetings here in Milan (0-0, 2-1, 0-3, 3-1) while Napoli is 4-2-2 over the L8 (14 GF-9 GA) in the series.

Another fairly conservative way to approach this match and possibly protect your money in case of a potential draw, is to take a look at Napoli Draw No Bet (+110, BetVictor) for your soccer picks, as the visitors are playing a little bit better football now, and over the past couple of seasons, and won’t be scared of the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza environment and will understand the importance of getting the W and the three points and staying in the Serie A race before The Usual Suspects get too far out ahead of the pack. That motivating fear and the plethora of players like Higuaín, Callejón, Mertens, Insigne and Hamšík seems to give Napoli an edge but this will be competitive and better here to be a little safe than possibly a lot sorry.

Serie A Pick: Napoli Draw No Bet +110 (BetVictor)

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