Our capper looks at the soccer odds and finds the best free picks, pointing out that Leicester are perilously close to the relegation zone. West Brom aren't too far from trouble either.
It seems early in the season to be talking about relegation six pointers, but in my mind this is exactly what we have in front of us. West Brom improved following the September international break but seem to be slipping back down the table now. Leicester’s remarkable 5-3 win over Manchester United was a peak that they simply could not maintain and haven't won a game since.
The Premier League early season form largely revolved around their ability to finish the chances they were creating, because they let in plenty of goals as well, evidenced by the 2-2 draws with Arsenal and Everton and the result I've already mentioned against Man U. One of the key players in the great start was Leonardo Ulloa. He had a fantastic shots-to-goal ratio, but his goals chances have dried up. I’m tempted to look at him here, because West Brom do allow their opponents plenty of opportunities and his run of not even having a shot on target in the last four games must end soon. The best price is 19/10, but others go as low as 6/5. I wouldn’t be a player at those soccer odds.
The Foxes should have beaten Burnley in their last home game, but they allowed the bottom club to score twice and come from behind to get the draw. Had Nigel Pearson’s men held on to the win their home form would have looked very good, as it is they are still unbeaten at home going into this match with West Brom. The most impressive thing about Leicester’s early season games was their team spirit and character coming from behind against excellent sides, but they have been unable to make the game against lesser sides.
They are second only to Hull in the table showing how many shots they allow the opposition at the King Power stadium, although I'm not sure the Baggies will be able to capitalise on their openness.
As predicted after wholesale changes in the midweek League Cup defeat at Bournemouth, Albion really missed Joleon Lescott’s poise, Craig Gardner’s industry, Chris Brunt’s delivery and Saido Berahino’s opportunism. The men who tried to replicate those qualities failed.
Berahino is now on 7 goals in 9 games and has already made us some money this season, however only one of his goals has come away from home this season and that was a penalty at Liverpool. Interestingly six of his goals have come from inside the penalty box, West Brom just don't get into the opposition box and enough away from home to give him the service that he needs. I think Leicester will be ultra solid first and foremost on Saturday, so can't see him getting that many clear-cut opportunities inside the penalty area.
So it’s a crucial game, a loss for either side and results going against them, could see them in the bottom three. If this was later in the season, I would predict a tight, tense affair, but I think Pearson’s men will be keen to get back into winning ways and continue their good scoring effort at home. West Brom don’t usually score many at home, but they haven’t come up against as lax a defence as this one. All things being equal, I predict a draw and for the more adventurous a 2-2 draw at 14/1. For this soccer pick, I will swerve Ulloa, but will bet on Berahino at 2/1.
Free Soccer Pick: Draw 12/5 at BookMaker