Free Soccer Picks: Cash in With These Valuable Bets for Saturday

Lee Phelps

Thursday, January 22, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

Our capper has been looking at the best European football betting to find some value odds for his Saturday Big Three this week, check out his free picks taking in Italy, Spain and England.

Lazio vs. AC Milan
The first of my big three soccer picks for Saturday is a home win for Lazio. Admittedly their record over the years against Milan is poor, with only two wins in their last 33 Serie A matches, both at home in 2012. However this isn’t the Milan of seasons gone by. They are in eighth position, a fully 20 points from the top of the table and five away from this weekend’s opponents.

Lazio are currently unbeaten in the last four home games versus the Rossoneri and have been in good form this season, with a six match unbeaten run ended by Napoli just last weekend. Conversely Milan are winless in four. Away from home they have two wins all season, with both coming against teams who are now in the bottom six. Their opening win on the road was that 5-4 at Parma, who are now the basement club in the division.

Add to that the goal-scoring struggles. They have scored 27 times all season – their worst since 2006/7 and narrowing in on the away record, eight of their 15 goals came in those two wins, so it’s seven in the other seven. Lazio have 18 home goals so far and I can see them maintaining that average of two goals per game with a win here.

Free Soccer Pick: Lazio 2.05 (21/20)

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Cordoba vs. Real Madrid
Next up Cristiano Ronaldo and Co have another away game at a club in the lower reaches. We landed the Madrid minus a goal bet last week and I’m back on the handicap trail again this week.

Cordoba are one of the tighter home teams in La Liga with just seven goals scored at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel and only 10 goals conceded. They have won one match at home (against bottom club Granada) and have mainly played clubs from outside elite so far, so the second half of the season could be a torrid one, starting here. The only side in the current top four they have faced in front of their own fans was Sevilla and they lost 3-1.

I can see them conceding another three or four to Real Madrid, but the bookmakers are on to that theory, so how can we find value? Well of their 35 away goals, 18 have been in the second half and I’m looking the second half minus one handicap here. We need Real to ‘win’ the second half by two clear goals to land the bet at a decent price.

Free Soccer Pick: Real Madrid minus one second half handicap 2.4 (7/5)

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Chelsea vs. Bradford City
The final match sees the Premier League leaders play a team two divisions below with a knack of upsetting big sides in cup competitions. I’m not expecting the Bantams to knock the Blues out of the FA Cup, but I think they could be life hard for the best side in English football.

Bradford are sixth in League One at the moment and Phil Parkinson will be focused on keeping Jose Mourinho’s men at bay. He has some hope too, because Chelsea have failed to lead at half time in either of their home cup ties this season against Watford and Bolton. Admittedly they are both Championship clubs, but they also failed to score at Shrewsbury until the second 45 minutes and I see the Yorkshire side trying to emulate that at least.

The problem with the bet is the price at 4.75, according to soccer betting odds board. I don’t think it is big enough even if the atmosphere is slightly quiet and the Premier League players struggle to get up for it, so the draw at 30 minutes is my pick here.

Free Soccer Pick: Game to be drawn after 30 minutes 2.05 (21/20)

Get a jump on our latest betting odds article on Transfer Rumors & Implications to help you find valuable soccer bets.

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