Free Soccer Pick for UEFA Quarter Finals: Porto vs. Bayern Munich

Lee Phelps

Friday, March 27, 2015 1:34 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 27, 2015 1:34 PM GMT

William Hill's Lee Phelps has looked at the odds surrounding the betting on Bayern Munich's quarter final in Portugal. So what does he go for as his free pick here?

On the face of it Bayern Munich pulled out one of the easier quarter final opponents in the Champions League draw, but Porto are mean customers at home and could provide a big test before the all-important return leg in Germany.

 

Porto
The Portuguese are in great form at home, with five successive clean sheets in all competitions, including that destruction of Basel 4-0 in the previous round. Add to that the fact they have only conceded two goals in their last five home Champions League games and you start to think maybe they can get away without conceding an away goal.

Although they wouldn’t be shoo-in to score in the Allianz Arena, going there with a lead and a clean sheet would give them a great chance to scare Bayern.

The problem for me is that they tend to struggle at this level. Look at their only two home defeats this season: to Benfica and Sporting Lisbon. They are the other two best clubs in Portugal and it worries me for Porto backers that they are flat track bullies and haven’t quite got enough at the top rung of the ladder.

To be fair they have done nothing wrong in Europe, scoring 21 goals and conceding just five. Admittedly 14 of those goals came in the games against Basel and BATE.

Whether they can keep the German champions out or not, I do expect Lopetegui’s boys to score. They have found the net in each of their last six UCL home games and in 11 of their last 12.

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Bayern Munich
I may as well declare that I tipped Bayern to win the whole thing before it started (shock horror huh?) I haven’t changed my mind too much, although Barcelona are looking better and better!

The only negative for me is how little they are tested in the Bundesliga. Some may see this as a benefit, so they are fresh, but I would rather a team go into a game at the right competitive level, not having to move up the gears from a routine win in the domestic.

Either way, I’m sure Pep Guardiola is on top of that and will have them firing on all cylinders for matches like these.

They score goals for fun, with 13 scored in their last three aways and they have only conceded one in their last five road trips in all competitions (they did fail to score past Shakhtar in Ukraine). The Champions League goal difference shows 23 in the for column and five against. 16 of those 23 came against Shakhtar and Roma, when they won 7-1 in the Italian capital back when they had one of the best defences in Europe!

They have only failed to score in two of their last 19 away Champions League matches and I think the firepower they have means an away goal is almost a given. The bookies make them 1.14 (1/8) to score in this game and Porto 1.67 (4/6) so I think we can expect both teams to score to land at 2.05 (21/20).

 

Soccer Picks
I’m going to further than the both teams to score, although it’s a decent price. I think Bayern who is a big Soccer odds favorite for this first leg will have too much for Porto and will get two away goals, putting the game to bed before they go home.

I like Thomas Muller to score (he has three in three as I write this and is on penalties of course) and for my Soccer Pick I’m taking a Bayern win and both teams to score.

Free Soccer Pick: Bayern Munich win and BTTS 4.1 (31/10) at Bet365

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