Free Soccer Pick for Serie A: Juventus vs. AS Roma

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 4, 2014 5:55 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 5:55 PM GMT

The top two teams in Italy’s Serie A, defending league champions Juventus and AS Roma meet in Turin on Sunday in a match where the odds for the Total seems to be off ½ a goal, making the Under the pick.

Odds Overview
Juventus vs. AS Roma, Sunday, (beIN/BT Sport 1, 1:00 GMT 12 p.m. ET/9 a.m. PT): Many times in sports, when two of the best teams—and this case both unbeaten—go head-to-head, expectations of high-scoring affairs with lots of offensive chances are perceived by the public just looking at the names of the players on each team’s rosters, but quite often, it’s the defense and equal levels of talent that often makes games between such talented opponents evolve into boring and low-scoring affairs that often end up having little entertainment value. This Italian Serie A match on Sunday between host and first-place Juventus (5-0-0, 15 points, 10GF-0 GA) and second-place AS Roma (5-0-0, 15 points, 9 GF-1 GA) at Juventus Stadium in Turin may just be one of those games. And the oddsmakers may have done the betting public (planning on betting the Under) a favor by setting the Total (Goals) at 2½ on the soccer odds board with the higher juice on the Under (-125, Ladbrokes; Over 2½ -105). I was expecting the Total to be set at 2 here with the higher juice (-130 range) on the Over but with 14 goals in the last 4 meetings here at Juventus in the series (3.5 gpg average), you can see why the pros that set these numbers ultimately decided on 2½. But it seems getting to 3 goals in this game may take quite some doing as quality shots on target should total around 10-12 and both goalkeepers are top-notch and have allowed just 1 goal in their 10 total appearances—a header by Parma’s Paolo De Ceglie against AS Roma’s Morgan De Sanctis in a 3-1 Giallorossi triumph in Week 3. As far as the Three-Way Moneyline (Winners) market, host Juventus is -125, AS Roma is +350 with the Draw priced at +250 (bet365).

Take a Look at this Capper Serie A Soccer Picks for Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan!

AS Roma
Often overshadowed by many of the bigger super-clubs on the European continent, the Giallorossi (FIFA rank 52) again field a very solid roster and are representing Italy’s top flight in UEFA Champions League play and have proved to pretty much be Juventus’s equal statistically heading into this massive Week 6 fixture at Juventus Stadium. AS Roma is coming off of a 1-1 draw on Tuesday against English Premier League champions Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, so, the boys from Rome may be a little bit tired from having to travel from Rome to Manchester to Turin within the week as well as play two 90+ minutes of soccer/football against two of the best teams in Europe. Nothing big, right? AS Roma should have Morgan De Sanctis in goal with Kostis Manolas, Ashley Cole and Maicon among its defenders and Seydou Keita, Adem Ljajic, Mattia Destro (2 goals, +175 Anytime Goalscorer, SkyBet), Gervinho (+275) and captain Francesco Totti (+280) on the attack. This is a team that can compete with anyone around as they showed against the Citizens in Sky Blue Mancunia on Tuesday earning a point in Champions League Play.

 

Juventus
Like AS Roma, the Bianconeri (FIFA rank 22) has a roster now perfectly sculpted for both Serie A and Champions League play, although Juventus captain Andrea Pirlo (knee) is still not 100% and midfielder Romulo is out for a month after having a hernia operation. But with a cast of shining stars that includes the aforementioned legend Pirlo, Giorgio Chiellini, Claudio Marchisio, Paul Pogba (+240 Anytime Goalscorer, SkyBet), Daniele De Rossi, Fernando Llorente (+175), Sebastian Giovinco (+200), Álvaro Morata (+200), Carlos Tevez (+100) and summer-signee Arturo Vidal (+240), among others, this club has been steadily improving to the point where it now thinks it can with both Serie A and Champions League, especially with the remarkable Gianluigi Buffon in goal.

And the 26-year-old Italian national has been brilliant allowing 0 goals in The Old Lady’s first 5 league games and just 1 goal—Wednesday’s game-winner from Atlético Madrid’s Arda Turan—in 2 Champions League matches (Malmö, Atlético Madrid). So, just one goal in 7 games. So, no goals against Buffon in league play yet and just the 1 in the world’s biggest tournament. And it’s October. Not too bad.

Against Atlético Madrid, Juventus possessed the ball a dominating 64% of the time, but couldn’t even get one shot on target in Madrid. Here against AS Roma, the hosts should get at least a handful of attempts, but this really seems like a play-it-tight, make-no-mistakes, conservative type of match and with both tired and off thick travel schedules earlier in the week, this could be 0-0 at halftime and it would seem like business as usual in Italy.

Besides Buffon and the crowd, history is on the side of  the Bianconeri as Juventus  is 3-1-0 L4 against Roma at Home, outscoring them an eye-catching 12-2 in the process and the Bianconeri is 5-1-2 over the L8 (16 GF-4 GA). AS Roma just can’t figure out how to beat Juventus, and, until it can, it’s pretty hard to want to take the Underdog or even gamble on the Draw here in the country that invented that simple and sacred food invention, pizza. So, a Juventus Draw No Bet wager (-275, Bwin) makes an awful lot of sense.

 

Best Betting Approaches
The managers of these two historic Italian clubs—Juventus’ Massimiliano Allegri and AS Roma’s Rudi García—know that this is a huge game in Italy’s top flight and that they have to play their best starting XI’s, despite the fact that both are coming off mid-week UEFA Champions Leagues away matches against very tough sides (Atlético Madrid and Manchester City). So any players who played on Tuesday or Wednesday will still have to be a little bit leg weary and not as rested as the travel back from Spain and England, respectively for Juventus and AS Roma, can only mean that both have to be a little bit worn down physically heading into this highly anticipated game in Turin.

These two teams—who may fight throughout the entire Serie A season for the league championship—have had a total of 10 goals in their 5 games—an average of exactly 2.0 gpg—and a solid 0.5 gpg (½ a goal) under the posted number here between two teams that simply don’t want to lose their first game of the season, a good thing for a potential Draw as well. Both goalies have to be extremely full of pride now with their reputations and with only one ball passing by both goalkeepers in Serie A league play after 10 total matches and over 900 minutes of play makes betting the Under 2½ -125 (Ladbroke’s) the play here for our soccer picks.

The Juventus To Nil +200 (888sports) and the Correct Score 0-0 +900 (William Hill) also look like pretty appealing prop wagers in a game that seems like it almost has to end 1-0 Juventus (+650) on a Tevez goal or 0-0, meaning that if it does somehow go Over the posted Total handicapped (and thought to be half-a-goal high), then a loss is deserved anyway as even an Under 2 bet in this high-profile fixture seemed like a real possibility. This probably will be like watching paint dry. Italian paint maybe, but still paint drying. And the highlights package may very well end up  being a couple of overhyped saves.

Serie A Pick: Under 2½ -125 (Ladbroke’s)

Serie A Prop Picks: Juventus Draw No Bet -275 (Bwin), Correct Score Juventus 1-0 +650 (BetVictor)

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