Free Soccer Pick: EPL Burnley vs. Manchester City Fixture Odds, Preview & Prediction

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

This EPL fixture sees one team still fighting for the championship playing another fighting for its Top Flight life when Burnley hosts Man City. Will the Citizens roll to an easy win at Turf Moor?

Odds Overview
Burnley vs. Manchester City, Saturday 17:30 (NBCSN, NBC Sports Live Extra, Mun2, Fubo TV (USA), Sky Sports 1/HD, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, NOW TV (UK); 1:30 p.m. ET/10:30 a.m. PT): Defending English Premier League champions Manchester City (17-7-4, 59 GF-27 GA) head to Harry Potts Way and Turf Moor on Saturday to face host and 19th-place Burnley (10-7-19, 53 GF-65 GA) in this Week 29 fixture with different meaning for the two clubs—one a spot away from Top O’ The Table and the other a spot away from its rock bottom and 20th place.

Soccer Odds makers here have made Manchester City -225 favorites with hosts Burnley +550 underdogs and the Draw priced at +350 (bet365) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace. The Total Goals is set at 2½ Over -162 (Under +125; bet365), with the Both Teams To Score prop odds here having the ‘Yes’ priced at -129 and the ‘No’ at +105 (BetVictor). Some other random props for this weekend game: Half Time/Full Time: Manchester City/Manchester City +120; Draw/Manchester City +350; Draw/Draw +650; Burnley/Burnley +1200; Draw/Burnley +1400; Manchester City/Draw +1800; Burnley/Draw +1800; Burnley/Manchester City +2500; Manchester City/Burnley +5000 (ToteSport); and, Correct Score: Manchester City 3-1 +1200 (BetVictor, Unibet).


Manchester City FC
Manchester City (8-4-2 Away, 31 GF-15) still sits 5 points being league leaders Chelsea and will definitely be motivated by that fact and this closeness to the Blues in the table from here on in. When these two teams met in Week 19 at the Etihad Stadium in Sky Blue Mancunia, Burnley rallied from a 2-0 halftime deficit to earn a point and a draw in a somewhat surprising 2-2 scoreline. And, for whatever the reasons—and they are surely many—City has sort of struggled with the Clarets at times. But that 2-2 final and the memories of the 2 points the Citizens didn’t earn against Burnley on their home turf should motivate this Manchester City side which is coming off a 2-0 win against 20th-place Leicester City.

In the Anytime Goalscorer marketplace in this game, Sky Blues striker Sergio Agüero ( -162, Paddy Power; 17 goals) and new Winter Transfer window-signee Wilfried Bony (-110) are the only two players sporting a minus in front of their Premier League soccer odds for this meeting. Besides Agüero and Bony, Edin Džeko (4 goals, +110), David Silva (10 goals, +130), Stevan Jovetic (5 goals, +130), James Milner (3 goals, +162), Frank Lampard (6 goals, +200), Samir Nasri (2 goals, +240) and Yaya Touré (7 goals, +275) give Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini’s more than an abundance of talent on the attack and with Joe Hart in goal and Vincent Kompany holding down the Citizens defense, this is a team that can still definitely make a run, catch Chelsea, and repeat as Premier League champions. There’s still a lot of soccer to be played between now and May 24th.


Burnley FC
Manager Sam Dyche and 19th-place Burnley (3-5-6 Home, 13 GF-19 GA) will begin the day on 22 points, 4 points ahead of aforementioned Leicester City (18), but still in trouble. And this ill-timed date with the champs is something the Clarets and Manager Sean Dyche could have definitely  done without. Pressure. Burnley does have Danny Ings (9 goals, Anytime Goalscorer +450, Paddy Power) to provide a healthy dose of scoring along with Ashley Barnes (5 goals, +350), Sam Vokes (+350), George Boyd (4 goals, +450), Scott Arfield (+650), Ross Wallace (+500), Michael Kightly (+900) and strikers Lukas Jutkiewicz (+450) and Marvin Sordell (+450). So, though not the big-name and very expensive talent that City Football Group and Mansoor bin Zayed Al Nahyan have assembled, the Claret have done what they can to assemble a roster of guys that can hopefully keep them up in England’s top flight of football.

GK Tom Heaton and Burnley have allowed 47 goals though so far this EPL season, the second worst total in the league behind 18th-place QPR (49), so defense has been a big issue at Turf Moor. Here against the club with the best recent offensive scoring attack over the last several seasons and with the most goals in the league (59) and almost everyone healthy in Manchester City, Burnley is in an awful spot, and with the Sky Blues coming in mad about that 2-2 draw in Week 19, Burnley should really have its hands full. City won’t be able to get those 2 points it missed out on in Week 19 back, but they will be able to make sure they win this game and take all 3 points with them back on the plane to Manchester. That is if points are allowed on airplanes these days. They used to be.


Best Betting Approaches and Trends
As hinted at, Burnley isn’t historically too bad against Manchester City, although all statistics and trends and such have their own unique context. Manchester City is just 10-7-19 (53 GF-65 GA) against Burnley here at Turf Moor through the years in Premier League play and 29-18-23 (131 GF-112 GA) against the Clarets overall in EPL action. The Sky Blues are also 33-18-27 (142 GF-116 GA) against Burnley in all competitions. When these two last played here in an EPL fixture at Turf Moor in the 2009/2010 season, Manchester City stomped a mud hole into the Clarets, 6-1, and with that Week 19 2-2 scoreline in the front of their minds, expect the defending champs through the prolific Agüero and Silva and New Kid On The Block Bony to come out swinging—and scoring—here in Lancashire and romp to a fairly easy victory. Add Manchester City to your EPL soccer picks this Saturday.


Prediction: Burnley 1 Manchester City 3

EPL Free Soccer Pick: Manchester City -1 -133 at BetVictor, Over 2½ -162 at Bet365

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