Free Soccer Pick: Benfica To Score At Allianz Arena vs. The Big Bayern Munich

Bernardo Baltazar

Monday, April 4, 2016 7:34 PM GMT

Allianz Arena will host a game between two teams who already won this competition but the truth is that Bayern’s recent past is much more successful and closer to be the soccer pick than Benfica.

It’s almost impossible to play at the Allianz Arena with an offensive strategy because Bayern is capable of attacking during the 90 minutes. Bayern achieved a great recovery on the previous round against Juventus, with their players showing all their quality and turning around the result in the final minutes of the game. At the end, Muller joked about Guardiola’s words at half-time, saying that the coach would ‘cut their balls off’ and the truth is that they managed to turn a 0 – 2 to a 4 – 2 with extra time. Take a look at the team's breakdown and make your soccer pick for the match.

 

Bayern Munich
For this match, we are sure that Bayern will keep their usual strategy and push Benfica since the first minute. Vidal, Muller, Ribery, Alcantara, Alonso and Lahm are just some examples of this team quality players and Benfica will have a hard time on this match. The only problem on Bayern’s team is their defense, as we referred in our Juventus AH +1.25 preview.

Bayern’s defense hasn’t been the same due to their injuries, especially without Boateng. They have conceded much more goals and that will continues to happen if they don’t play with more caution. Even though they reach this game after a poor result, a 1 – 0 victory vs a weak Bundesliga team is not great for Guardiola’s team especially on their stadium, we believe they were already thinking about this clash against Benfica because the UCL is one of their goals in every season.

 

Benfica Lisbon
Benfica is doing an amazing season with one of the most dangerous attacks in Europe, where the highlight goes to Mitroglou and Jonas who are currently in an amazing shape. Benfica’s biggest goal this season is to win the Portuguese Championship but that doesn’t mean that they won’t fight for this tie and try to grab every chance they can get with both hands.

Benfica’s new coach, Rui Vitoria, arrived this season and built a very solid team with results not only on domestic competitions, but also in Europe with victories on Vicente Calderon and in Russia against Zenit. Besides their two strikers, Jonas and Mitroglou, Benfica has also Gaitan and Pizzi on the wings, two very interesting players who can easily play on some of Europe best clubs. Renato Sanches is also rising star on Benfica and has been followed by big clubs like Manchester United.

Like any other club besides Barcelona at the Allianz Arena, Benfica will approach this game with a defensive strategy, defending with 10 or 11 players and trying to steal the ball to surprise their opponents with quick transitions. On the other hand, Bayern will try to find a hole on Benfica’s defense to create goal chances.

 

Betting Overview
Any possible value on the winners market is long gone, with Bayern odds dropping to 1.20, which is the best value and can be found in Tipico. This is a normal and fair price for this match but far from possible to play on it or to find any value on Bayern handicaps. It’s also not easy to approach the goals market, since the line is very fair at the moment, pricing the Over 3.00 at 2.00 on a game where we expect 3-4 goals.

As we referred above, Benfica’s ability to score is very high with their strikers on amazing form while Bayern has showed some defensive problems. If Bayern reaches a comfortable result they might also relax, giving Benfica some space to create some opportunities and we believe they don’t need many to score a goal.

Benfica to score a goal is at the moment priced +139 at Pinnacle Sports (Benfica Over 0.50 goals) while both teams to score is +150 at Bet365, which is almost the same because at least one goal from Bayern is very likely to happen.

Bayern to win the game and both teams to score is also other option to get higher soccer odds than in our Asian line on Benfica to score a goal, currently +240 at Coral or Betfair Sportsbook.

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Free Soccer Pick: Benfica Over 0.5 goals
Best Line Offered: at Bet365