Free Premier League Picks for Chelsea vs. Everton

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, February 18, 2014 7:24 PM GMT

Premier League betting menu serves up an intriguing clash between Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge this weekend. Join us as we breakdown the soccer odds and deliver our betting verdict for your consideration.

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Chelsea firm favourites

Chelsea host Everton at Stamford Bridge on Saturday as the firm -188 favourites (or thereabouts) to win outright across sportsbooks, a market confidence underscored by an impressive home record that stands at 11-2-0 this season. The Blues are the only side in English Premier League to remain undefeated at home but after last week’s frustrations in both league and FA Cup action, some fans are overcome with trepidation: could this be the weekend that nigh perfect home record is blemished. The prospect realistic with Everton at the weekend – a hard nut to crack this season – and with the subsequent trip to Turkey for a Champions League date with Galatasaray, a match that Jose Mourinho will almost certainly be mindful of when making his starting XI decisions against Everton.

Chelsea currently sit astride the Premier League table (which they are tipped to win outright at +163 at Bet365) with a 17-6-3 mark and 57 points. But they look far from secure at the top of the table with Arsenal nipping at their heels just a point behind and generously priced at +750 to win the title, and Man City, odds makers’ darlings at +110 future odds to win the coveted EPL title, just three points shy.

Last week, Chelsea saw their attempt to pull four points ahead frustrated by a resilient West Bromwich Albion that refused to go down quietly according to market expectations (perhaps they didn’t get the memo). Instead the Baggies forced a 1-1 draw on Chelsea when Victor Anichebe’s 87th-minute header sailed past Petr Cech, culminating in a share in the spoils and a touch of the blues (no pun intended) amongst soccer bettors that pounced on Chelsea’s short soccer odds to win outright at the Hawthorns.

The blues in soccer betting circles alas spilled forth into the weekend for those soccer bettors that were tempted by Chelsea’s generous +240 soccer odds to hand Man City a second defeat in as many weeks, this time in FA Cup action. Tale told Man City, matched at +105 soccer odds to win outright at Bet365, came through for backers with a 2-0 win in order to advance into the quarterfinals.

Of course, the whole season doesn’t hang in the balance of the upcoming week and in that there is some freedom for the Blues to sink their teeth into and in turn for soccer betting fans to keep their emotions in check. That Arsenal failed to capitalise on the opportunity to reclaim top spot with a scoreless draw to Man U was an added reprieve. So too was the postponement of Man City’s game against Sunderland. Yet, at the same time, Roberto Martinez and Everton could feel optimistic about their chances at Stamford Bridge in the wake of Chelsea’s recent spate of frustrations.

That sentiment isn’t echoed by sportsbooks however as they send the Toffees into their clash with Chelsea at significantly large +550 soccer odds to win outright. Even the draw, which they are prone to often on the road (4-6-3) is listed at distance away at +300 at Bet365.

Everton are currently sixth in the table with 12-9-4 record and 45 points, a mark largely down to their solid home form that stands at 8-3-1. Recent frustrations on the road could explain this soccer-betting outlook on Everton’s chances. Back-to-back losses in their last two away games, both of which were shutout defeats, have taken some of the shine of their odds. That they were also defeats to clubs inside the top five – 4-0 defeat to Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and a 1-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, which marked the end of a seven-game undefeated streak away (three wins and four draws) – is a handy measuring stick for their chances against Chelsea.

Then again, this is the same side that held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw at the Emirates and beat Manchester United 1-0 at the Old Trafford – two surprising results that prove anything can happen in Premier League betting. And now, more so than before, Everton need a result to stay close to the top five teams in the league, namely close the gap on Tottenham Hotspur that are five points ahead.

Soccer Betting Verdict

On paper, this would appear to be a home banker with Chelsea the correct favourites at -188 to win outright across sports betting platforms. But pressure is mounting on the current league leaders and it’s beginning to show. What’s more, complicating matters is their upcoming Champions League date, an away tie that will surely occupy some of their preparations this week. It remains to be seen what approach Jose Mourinho takes and how much he’s prepared to risk.

Everton, meanwhile, aren’t being given enough credit at +550 soccer odds to win outright or even on the draw at generous +300 soccer odds. Granted, Lukaku is still sidelined (besides he’s ineligible to play for his parent club Chelsea) and Everton have slipped up against both the Spurs and Reds on their recent travels. But if both West Bromwich and West Ham United can force draws on Chelsea, at the very least Everton could quite easily do the same.

So from a betting perspective, this game could go any which way – the home win, draw or the away win. All things being considered, for our money we quite fancy the draw at +300 at Bet365. But the best soccer pick however is to back the Under 2.5 at -105.

Soccer Free Picks: Draw at +300; Under 2.5 at -105