Free Picks for UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Manuwa

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 8:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014 8:17 PM UTC

The once feared Shogun Rua will make his case to stay in the UFC after dropping three of his last four while Jimi "Poster Boy" Manuwa looks to rebound following the first loss of his career. But which fighter will allow us to cash in our UFC picks?

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (22-9, 19 KO's, 1 Sub)
Here's an interesting fact for all you Shogun fans. On September 12th, 2007 Shogun tied the knot with Renata Riberio. Less than two weeks later he was defeated courtesy of a lethal rear naked choke by Forrest Griffin. Up to that point Shogun had lost only two MMA fights but since he decided to exchange vows the former UFC Light Heavyweight champ has gone 6-7. To be completely fair let me also point out that the loss to Forrest Griffin was his initial foray into the UFC to which he has remained a staple ever since. Apparently the level of competition in the granddaddy of all MMA associations is a notch above all others, even one as respected as the former PRIDE organization so let's not blame it all on Mrs. Shogun.

And though Rua has lost three of his last four fights, he never fails to electrify the crowd which is ultimately what Dana White demands from his fighters. Shogun was a +250 underdog in UFC odds when he stepped into the cage with Alexander Gustafsson in December of 2012. He lost that match by decision and subsequently landed a bout with wrestler extraordinaire and certified whack job Chael Sonnen. That match didn't last long after Sonnen choked out Rua at 4:47 of the opening round.

In Shogun's second to last fight he had a tailor made opponent in James Te Huna who loves to stand and trade but without much ground efficacy. Rua dispatched the rugged Kiwi in the first-round via a brutal left cross that clipped Te Huna behind the ear and sent him crashing to the canvas. In his last match, a rematch with Dan Henderson, Shogun was finished in the third-round by TKO which added another loss on his resume but did earn Fight of the Night honors.


Jimi Manuwa (14-1, 13 KO’s, 1 Sub)
The Poster Boy felt the bitter taste of defeat for the first time in his professional MMA career when he succumbed to the devastating punching power of Alexander Gustafsson in the second-round of their March 8th, 2014 battle in London, England. If you are going to lose then you could do much worse than getting hammered by arguably the best light heavyweight in the world. Manuwa is a premier knockout artist as evidenced by his 13 KO’s in 14 victories butt hat did little to help his cause against The Mauler.

Since entering the UFC in September of 2012 Manuwa has registered victories over Kyle Kingsbury, an aging Cyrille Diabate and journeyman Ryan Jimmo. In his fight with Jimmo, Manuwa was installed as -150 betting favorite in UFC odds and did not disappoint as Jimmo could not continue with what was described as a leg injury. In his last fight against Gustafsson, Manuwa entered the Octagon as a +475 underdog in UFC odds and could not cash for those who wished for a longshot in their UFC picks.


Free UFC Pick
The oddsmakers don’t know what to make of this matchup and the UFC odds reflect just that. On one hand we have an absolutely brutal puncher in Manuwa whose sheer strength may be enough to win the day. However, Manuwa has only faced one true powerhouse in his MMA career and that resulted in a loss to Alexander Gustafsson. Rua certainly doesn’t pose the same threat as Gustafsson at this point in his career but he does bring a dimension on the mat that Manuwa has not witnessed before.

Rua is a UFC veteran who has seen it all before. Manuwa is not his first rodeo and in addition the Poster Boy is not a young buck rounding out his MMA game. He is a 34-year-old brawler who possesses enormous punching power but then again so too did James Te Huna and we saw what Rua did to him. Shogun has too much experience, a superior ground game and can bring the pain with his hands before he wraps Manuwa up on the mat.

UFC Picks: Shogun -110 at a trustworthy sportsbook

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