Free Picks, Predicion & Odds for Hull City vs. West Ham

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 12, 2014 7:15 PM GMT

Host Hull City are slight odds favorites over West Ham United as Week 4 of the English Premier League wraps up Monday at KC Stadium in Kingston Upon Hull. Check out our free picks here.

Although it’s definitely not the sexiest fixture on the English Premier League schedule this week, this Hull City (1-1-1) and West Ham United (1-0-2) meeting on Monday will draw some attention from both fans and bettors that it would normally never get on a Saturday or a Sunday—as it’s the only game being played in the league on this day (NBCSN, 8 p.m. BST/3 p.m. ET/12 p.m PT).

There haven’t really been any surprises in either of the two clubs first three games, and this meeting at Hull City’s KC Stadium could go a long way to helping either the Hammers or the Tigers can get some momentum early on in a season, where honestly, both sides are probably more worried about being relegated more than anything. And when both teams—no matter how early on a season—are more preoccupied with not losing than they are with winning, then the potential of a Draw occurring must always be considered, although amazingly, none of West Ham’s last 18 Premier League games have ended in a Draw (8-0-10).

 

Hull City +115, Draw +240, Underdogs West Ham +275 on Three-Way Odds
Host Hull City (10-7-21, 37 points LY) and manager Steve Bruce finished in 16th place in the Premier League last season—four points above the relegation cutoff—but the Tigers had a building and positive 2013/14 and made the UEFA Europa League qualifying round in which they are now participating (Hull beat Belgian Pro League side Lokeren on the road at Lokeren in their last match in the round, 2-1 on Aug. 28). Sam Allardyce and West Ham United (11-7-20, 40 points) finished a little bit higher up the EPL table in 13th place last season, but the schedulemaker has been a little hard on the Hammers at home thus far, giving them Tottenham Hotspur in the season opener (West Ham lost 1-0) and then Southampton two weeks later (West Ham lost 3-1).

The Total in this game is as low as it goes in the Premier League (2, Over -130 Bovada) and there is no easy way to approach 2’s unless it seems a game could go over in the gambler’s mind, and in this case, it sure can in mine. But there’s a reason the number is set at 2. The Draw No Bet/Pick line seems like the way to go in a tricky game like this (Hull City PK -187, West Ham PK +137, Sky Bet), and logic says the home team gets the little breaks from the referees and all the things that could add up to a tough win and three points. But Hammers GK Jussi Jääskeläinen won’t make it easy for the Hull City, and, looking in, this is a game that should probably be avoided by the serious handicapper. Either side could win this and a Draw could ruin a side bet, while this game could end 0-0 (7/1, Bovada) or 4-4 (200/1). Who knows. But if I had to lean on the Total, I’d lean with my soccer pick to the 'Over' as 2 is just too easy to get to, even with these two mediocre clubs. And with any 1-1 or 2-0 scoreline, you get your money back.

 

Examining the First and Anytime Goalscorer Marketplaces
Looking at the Anytime Goalscorer prop odds, it seems the Tigers have better scorers en masse when compared to West Ham, but football/soccer is a game of very few—if any sometimes—goals and they (goals) sometimes come in the weirdest fashion (own) or by the most obscure player, so, betting the First Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer markets is pretty fun. But, as mentioned before, the Anytime Goalscorer market is the market of choice (for me) as you will always have a chance to hit that wager as long as the player you bet on is (or was) on the field, whereas the First Goalscorer market wipes out every potential ‘player to score’ prop bet except the one player who scores first, who can be the only winner.  Not as much fun of a bet from where I am sitting (an igloo in Alaska).

Anyway, here are some odds on both First Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer for Hull City and West Ham: Hull City: Abel Hernández (First: 5/1, Anytime: 15/8, Bovada), Nikica Jelavic (11/2, 21/10), Sone Aluko (11/2, 21.10), Yannick Sakho (11/2, 21/10), Tom Ince (7/1, 13/5), Robbie Brady (8/1, 3/1), Hatem Ben Arfa (9/1, 7/2), Mohamed Diare (10/1, 4/1), Gastón Ramírez (11/1, 9/2), David Meyler (12/1, 5/1) and Ahmed Elmohamady (14/1, 11/2), West Ham: Carlton Cole, Diafro Sakho, Enner Valencia, Mauro Zarate, Ricardo Vaz Te (all 17/2, 10/3), Elliott Lee (10/1, 4/1), Ravel Morrison (12/1, 5/1), Morgan Amalfitano (14/1, 11/2), Mark Noble (18/1, 7/1), Cheikhou Kouyate (22/1, 9/1) and Diego Poyet (22/1, 9/1).

The No Goalscorer odds are 7/1, the same (logically) as a 0-0 Final Score prop bet.

 

Beware of Carlton Cole, Beware of Carlton Cole! Trends and Picks
The last time these two teams played, West Ham won 2-1 at home at the Boleyn Ground in March, while Hull City notched a clean sheet (1-0) at home last September. Three out of the last four times these two teams have played, the Hammers have been reduced down to 10 players, but West Ham has still won four of the last 5 EPL meetings (4-1-0) and Hammers striker Carlton Cole (10/3, Anytime Scorer) has scored four goals and an own goal in his last five against the Tigers, who incidentally have the fewest shots (18) in the EPL heading into Monday’s match. Lifetime, Hull City is 8-8-4 against West Ham at home but the Hammers have the 16-14-10 edge overall lifetime between the two clubs. West Ham has averaged 1.53 goals per game in those 40 games while Hull City has averaged just 1.15.

It’s hard picking a winner here, but the combination of Hull City being at home in KC Stadium and the presence of Tigers Nikica Jelavic, Hatem Ben Arfa (Man Of The Match, 11/1, betfred) and new signee, Uruguayan striker Abel Hernandez (Palermo)—who very well could make his debut here against West Ham—would make it really hard to go against Hull City here despite the recent trends. So, Hull City Draw No Bet (-187 Sky Bet) seems like the best route. And both the Tigers’ Nikica Jelavic (both shots on target this season have been goals) and Hatem Ben Arfa are nice prop picks for Anytime Scorer. But, in the end, this one’s probably best avoided.

Free Soccer Prediction: Hull City 2 West Ham 1 at Pinnacle

Free Soccer Pick: Hull City Draw No Bet (-187 Sky Bet)

Free Soccer Props Bets: Nikica Jelavic Anytime Scorer (21/10, Bovada), Hatem Ben Arfa Anytime Scorer (7/2, Bovada)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":319707, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]