Free Picks: Mayweather vs. Guerrero Betting Odds & Predictions

SBR Staff

Thursday, May 2, 2013 3:53 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 2, 2013 3:53 PM UTC

On May 4th, Floyd Mayweather makes his return to the ring to face Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero. It's been one full year since we last saw Mayweather in the ring.

He fought Miguel Cotto in what turned out to be a better than expected fight. Cotto fought hard, bloodied up Mayweather a little bit, bruised him up, and made things a bit difficult. Mayweather still prevailed with a unanimous decision victory. This fight might turn out to be a bit like that as well. Let's breakdown both fighters and try and come up with a winner. 

Let's start with Robert Guerrero. Robert Guerrero is a solid all around boxer. He's got nice power, nice speed, and all that good stuff, but his biggest attribute is his mental toughness and heart. That's why there's a chance that perhaps this fight will get interesting.

Guerrero is a tough cagey fighter. He doesn't mind getting inside and getting a little rough and dirty. Mayweather is usually able to dictate what goes on inside, but in this fight he might not have that luxury. This might look a lot like the Oscar De La Hoya fight of almost six years ago. Mayweather had to work really hard for 5-6 rounds on the inside before De La Hoya tired out. In this fight, I don't expect Guerrero to wilt down the stretch. Guerrero has the youth, and the determination to win. 

Floyd Mayweather on the other hand does everything at a world class level. He's got the skill and boxing I.Q. of a world class, Pound-4-Pound champion. He can fight on the outside, keeping fighters at bay with his straight jab to the body. He can counter off with his left hook and straight right hand. or he can fight on the inside. He'll use his shoulder roll to get an angle on his opponents so they can't hit him cleanly. While he does that, he'll get a bit cheeky and use his left elbow to get a little space and then throw a right hand. 

The way I see this fight going for our sport picks is: Robert Guerrero will have to get inside on Mayweather. He can't outbox Mayweather on the outside. Guerrero will have to be smart coming in with his jab and once he's inside, he'll have to work hard for 3:00 minutes of every round. Mayweather, meanwhile, early on I think he'll be able to move around the ring. I think he will keep Guerrero on the outside, stepping to the side landing a left hook. Stepping around the other side and landing a straight right hand. But, I don't think Mayweather can stay on the outside for long. Mayweather's legs haven't been the same for the last couple of years. He's had to be a bit more stationary of late. So, eventually, I do see Guerrero getting inside and working hard, but I think Mayweather will bust up Guerrero a bit. I can see Mayweather leaning, slipping, and countering Guerrero off the ropes. Landing the right uppercut, the left hook, and the straight right hand time and time again. 

For the latest Mayveater vs Guerrero Odds head to Sportsbook Review.

Overall, I like Mayweather by decision. I believe that Mayweather by decision is the best bet. And not only do I think that's the best bet, but I think that's the best value bet as well. At the moment, you can get some really good odds on Mayweather by decision. At Ladbrokes, Mayweather by decision is 8/11. At William Hill, Mayweather by decision is 4/6. Looking at the other scenarios, they aren't very likely to happen. Mayweather by stoppage seems unlikely, Guerrero winning a decision seems unlikely, and Guerrero stopping Mayweather seems very unlikely. Not only are those three other scenarios unlikely, the odds don't have much value at all. Floyd Mayweather by stoppage has no value whatsoever. Right now, just about every book has Mayweather stopping Guerrero at 7/4 odds, from William Hill to Ladbrokes, to Bet365. I don't see any value at all in that. So, cross that off the list. 

Now, what about Guerrero by decision? I talked about how unlikely it is for Guerrero to win this fight. It is a very, very unlikely scenario, but there is some value in Robert Guerrero winning by decision. You can get Robert Guerrero at 12/1 at Bet365, Paddy Power, and Betway. I think that's a decent side action bet just in case Guerrero pulls off the shocking upset. Meanwhile, Guerrero by stoppage has around the same amount of odds, but I don't see any value in that at all. 

If I had to put money on either Guerrero by decision or stoppage, it'd be Guerrero by decision. Guerrero stopping Mayweather seems extremely unlikely. There's about a 2% chance of that happening. Guerrero has solid power, but he hasn't stopped anybody world class and now he's stepping up to face the P4P best fighter in the world who is one of the best defensively. Not only that, but the value isn't worth it. You are getting the same odds for Guerrero by stoppage and decision.

So, If you had or want to put money on Guerrero, I'd recommend putting it on Guerrero by decision. Definitely not stoppage. But, I believe the best overall bet is Floyd Mayweather by decision. 

Free Fight Pick: Mayweather by decision at Ladbrokes

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