Free Picks: Longshots to Consider With Kentucky Derby Picks

Joe Freda

Thursday, May 2, 2013 8:03 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 2, 2013 8:03 PM UTC

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby has a host of loaded long shots, looking for a sizable payout by hitting the winner’s circle. Are thee any horses that deserve a look when it coles time to place your sports picks in this year's race?

Kentucky Derby Betting Tips & Strategy

Mine That Bird (50/1) and Animal Kingdom (20/1) crossed the finish line at large prices in 2009 and 2011, respectively, with this year’s field containing 10 entrants at 20/1 or higher.

20/1 Odds:  No. 10 Palice Malice, No. 15 Charming Kitten (20/1) and No. 17 Will Take Charge 
The first trio of this year’s long shots is made up of No. 10 Palice Malice, No. 15 Charming Kitten (20/1) and No. 17 Will Take Charge. The betting odds list this group all at 20/1. 

Palice Malice and Charming Kitten are two of five entries for trainer Todd Pletcher, who won his sole Kentucky Derby with Super Saver, three years ago. Palice Malice is the son of former Preakness Stakes winner Curlin, heading to Louisville after losing last month’s Blue Grass Stakes by a neck. Charming Kitten finished right behind his stable mate in third place, switching to dirt here for the first time. 

Will Take Charge has logged victories in two of his last three starts, giving trainer D. Wayne Lukas a chance for his fifth Kentucky Derby crown. The Rebel Stakes winner is one of my top three picks for Saturday’s affair, along with No. 5 Normandy Invasion and No. 9 Overanalyze.  


30/1 Odds:  No. 2 Oxbow and No. 11 Lines of Battle 
Oxbow is another challenger for Lukas, bringing a 2-for-9 mark to Louisville. The son of Breeders Cup Classic champ Awesome Again closed to fifth place in the Arkansas Derby, while breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs, five months ago. 

Lines of Battle crosses the pond after winning Meydan’s UAE Derby, in March. Aidan O’Brien’s colt last started on United States soil as part of November’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, flopping in a seventh-place result. 


50/1 Odds:  No. 1 Black Onyx, No. 4 Golden Soul, No. 7 Giant Finish, No. 13 Falling Sky, No. 18 Frac Daddy 
Black Onyx keeps rider Joe Bravo aboard after winning March’s Spiral Stakes, moving back to his maiden-breaking surface of dirt here. Kelly Breen’s colt has had all five career starts at one mile or greater, reaching the winner’s circle three times.

Golden Soul has failed to hit the board in his last two outings, while reaching career-high speed in March’s Louisiana Derby. Rider Robby Albarado has three top-two finishes to start Churchill Downs’ meet, filling the gap here of losing Calvin Borel aboard. 

Giant Finish last finished third in the Spiral Stakes, 2 ½ lengths behind Black Onyx. The New York bred is 2-for-3 on dirt, and may enjoy the expected rainy conditions with one victory on an off track. 

Falling Sky fell to fourth place in the Arkansas Derby, following a lead that lasted most of the way. The colt switches back to jockey Luis Saez, who logged a victory aboard him at Gulfstream Park. 

Frac Daddy has made six straight starts at one mile or more, with one win at Churchill Downs over that span. The grandson of Skip Away has been bred for distance, while keeping rider Victor Lebron here after placing second in the Arkansas Derby.

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