Free Picks: AFL Premiership Odds & Tips for Round 20

Richard O'Hagan

Tuesday, August 6, 2013 6:02 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2013 6:02 PM GMT

There are now just four rounds to go in the Aussie Rules season and some big names could be slipping at just the wrong moment. Let our free picks and predictions help you make a profit this weekend in the AFL Premiership


On the face of it, Round 19 of the Aussie Rules season didn’t look to be a terribly good one. Most of the big names had ties they were odds on to win and value looked to be hard to find. But the weekend started with Geelong losing to North Melbourne and continued with Richmond’s road win over leaders Hawthorne, and suddenly everything at the top of the ladder became much tighter.

Sports Betting: Aussie Rules Tips & Betting Predictions

The main beneficiaries of the top two losing were Sydney Swans and Fremantle Dockers, who moved into second and fourth spots respectively. The Dockers have just about the easiest run to the play-offs of any team and their away win over Carlton at the weekend assured them of a place in the post season. In theory they should win all of their last four games, which should guarantee them a top four finish. This weekend they play bottom side Greater Western Sydney Giants and are currently at betting odds of 1/41 to win.

Carlton’s defeat, meanwhile, leaves one of the pre-season favorites in ninth place, one slot out of the play-offs and a full eight points (or two wins) behind the team in that slot, Port Adelaide. Port were convincing winners of the Adelaide derby, beating local rivals Adelaide Crows, at the weekend but face a tougher battle this weekend against Geelong, whilst the Blues play a Western Bulldogs side who have won only five times all season.

The three teams below Carlton - North Melbourne, West Coast Eagles and Brisbane Lions - are all on 32 points and really cannot afford another defeat now. The Eagles and the Lions both face higher ranked opponents who are both one win away from securing their own play-off slot. Both are also on the road, but the Eagles look to have a decent shout of a rare win against Essendon Bombers, priced at 9/4 with William Hill.

Looking towards those play-offs, and the question of who will win the Grand Final at the end of September, the weekend defeat has caused Hawthorn’s odds to slip slightly and they are now 9/4 in most markets to avenge last season’s defeat. Sydney, meanwhile, have come in to 3/1 with Ladbrokes. However, they have a tough game this weekend against sixth placed Collingwood and it may be prudent to see how they fare in that one before getting your money on them now (you could even have a Collingwood win at 2/1 with Bet365).

The Dockers still look to be the best value option for your sports picks, though. At 8/1 with Coral, the only question will be whether they can hold out against the stronger sides after such a gentle final month. Remember, though, that they drew (a rare thing in the AFL) with Sydney earlier this season and haven’t been badly beaten in any of their four defeats so far this year.
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