Free Pick: Formula One Grand Prix Monaco 2014

Richard O'Hagan

Monday, May 19, 2014 2:48 PM GMT

Monday, May. 19, 2014 2:48 PM GMT

The blue riband event of the Formula One season is already upon us. It may lack some of the glamour of old – it isn’t even F1’s only street circuit anymore – but it is the race that every television company and sponsor wants to follow.

Formula One Tips: Monaco Grand Prix
For a driver, the challenge of Monaco is different to everywhere else in the F1 calendar. The very narrow track makes overtaking almost impossible, especially at the head of the field. On the other hand, the twisting track, bumpy road surface and heavy braking take a high toll of both driver and car.

Last season, the car which stood up best to all of this was the Mercedes and it is no surprise to find that they are a best price of 1.12 with Bwin to win this year. In fact, so far ahead of the field have they been, that it is pretty much a case of trying to pick which of their two drivers will win. Current championship leader Lewis Hamilton is a best price of 1.73 with William Hill whilst BetVictor have his teammate Nico Rosberg at 3.25 – surprisingly good odds on the man who won last year.

You could even argue that the Mercedes is so far out in front that backing any one driver to finish in the top three places is a bad value bet, because you are not getting full odds on what may be just a one in three chance. Instead, look for something rather more interesting, like the first driver to retire. It is rare for all cars to make it through the race although history suggests that the first failure won’t be one of the slower cars like a Caterham or Marussia. Look instead to those drivers who have a bit of a reputation for lapses in concentration, such as Romain Grosjean of Lotus or Adrian Sutil in the Sauber. They are currently 17.0 and 15.0 respectively, both with BetVictor.

comment here