Free La Liga Picks for Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 4, 2014 7:05 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 7:05 PM UTC

The battle at the top of the table heats up in Spanish top flight this weekend when Valencia and Atletico Madrid collide.  Bookies have rolled out a tight soccer betting line that offers plenty of angles for profit. Find out where we feel the value soccer picks are to be had.

Atletico Madrid Marginal Favourites
Defending champions Atletico Madrid are third in La Liga behind a 4-2-0 mark through six rounds of domestic top-flight action, but level on 14 points with Valencia (4-2-0 as well). Admittedly, the capital club is enjoying good form at the start of the season, but they’ve suffered a few mishaps at home that could prove costly down the stretch if they hope to keep up in what is typically a tight top-of-the-table race to the finish between the usual suspects – Barcelona and Real Madrid.

They opened with a scoreless draw to Rayo Vallecano on the road and then reeled off two straight victories over Eibar and Real Madrid (both 2-1). In round 4 of La Liga betting, however, Atletico Madrid suffered another slight setback against Celta de Vigo at home when they allowed a 2-1 lead to slip through their fingers as Celta de Vigo equalised midway through the second half. Though there was ample time to respond, they failed and had to settle for the point.

The absence of Diego Simeone from the touchline played a part in that result. The charismatic Argentinean manager is notorious for his ability to inspire and will his players on the field from the sidelines, gesturing wildly, shouting and encouraging. On that day, he was serving a league ban after falling afoul of the league’s governing bodies following an incident in the Spanish Super Cup second leg – tapping an official on the back of the head – and his absence was felt. (Simeone was also absent from the touchline in Champions League as Atletico Madrid suffered a defeat to Olympiakos in round 1).

Since that costly draw, Atletico Madrid reeled off two straight wins in domestic action, beating Alemeria and Sevilla, the latter of which featured the return of Simeone and Atletico pummelled the visitors 4-0. They immediately followed that result with a 1-0 win over Juventus to extend their undefeated form across all competitions to four games.


Valencia Flying High In La Liga
Valencia are off to a flying start in La Liga betting this season, coming through for soccer bettors in four of their last six games. Though they opened on a 1-1 draw to Sevilla on the road, they reeled off four straight wins over Malaga, Espanyol, Getafe and Cordoba. In the last round, they suffered their first hiccup in September when they settled on a 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad.

Overall, Valencia are enjoying good form but seeing that it is at the expense of Spanish middleweight clubs (if not lightweights), it’s hard to gauge where their form is really at compared to the best in Spain, amongst which they currently hobnob in the table in second place with 14 points. The only reason why Valencia sits above Atletico is goal difference – they’ve scored 14 goals and conceded just three through six rounds, while Atletico have scored 11 and conceded four.


Valencia +175 vs. Atletico Madrid +160 Betting Tips
Odds makers roll out a tight soccer betting line, tighter than an accountant’s purse with the hosts listed at the nominal disadvantage. Valencia are matched at +175 soccer odds while Atletico Madrid are matched at marginally favourable odds of +160. The draw is trading at around +220, depending on your sportsbook of choice.

Clearly, with both sides on the short side of even money, there’s betting value in both camps. Valencia have home advantage where they’ve won three in a row, all while scoring nine goals and conceding one. That said the quality of their opponents leaves much to be desired. Valencia may have another negotiable advantage over Atletico Madrid: rest.

Atleti had a mid-week Champions League clash with Juventus to contend with but as it was a home leg it might be a moot point. Fact is Atletico Madrid are enjoying good form at the expense of credible opposition. Now that Simeone is back on the touchline, they’ll be inspired – the last two games are proof-positive of the Simeone effect as Atleti played more aggressively and were more opportunistic on the attack.

Soccer Betting Verdict: While there is value in both sides of the camp, and the result could go either way, Atletico strike a more convincing pose overall and that’s why we’re backing them on our soccer picks at their tempting +160 price tag.  Our bonus soccer picks comes in the score betting markets; both teams have offensive weapons and we feel that should see this game go over 2.5 at +125.

Free Soccer Picks: Atletico to win outright at +181 at Pinnacle; over 2.5 at +125

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":347949, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here