Free Europa League Soccer Pick: Can Dinamo Moscow Spring a Surprise on Napoli?

Nikki Adams

Thursday, March 12, 2015 2:48 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 12, 2015 2:48 AM UTC

Napoli & Dinamo Moscow set up the most lopsided tie on the Europa League's R16 odds board according to sports betting platforms. Find out as we breakdiwn this clash & serve up our soccer picks.

Napoli Hot Favourites
Coach Rafa Benitez relishes the two-leg format of European ties and he's seen his side through successfully in the competition so far. In group play, Napoli won Group I with a 4-1-1 record all while netting eleven goals and conceding three. The only hiccups they suffered were on the road (1-1-1), behind a 2-0 loss to Young Boys and a scoreless draw at Sparta Praha. In the R32, Napoli drew competition lightweight Trabzonspor and wasted no time in exerting their might by winning the first leg 4-0 in Turkey before finishing the job at home with a 1-0 win.

On the strength of Napoli's overall campaign thus far and the team's undeniable quality and depth compared to the rest of the field, they are one of the competition favourites matched at +600 to win it all. Second behind Wolfsburg at +550 and a smidgen ahead of Roma at +800 in Europa League futures.

Predictably, Napoli enter this R16 tie as the hot favourites at -143 to win the first leg at home. Not only is this market valuation underscored by four-game winning streak at home in Europe, but also home form overall this season in all competitions. Napoli have only lost two home games in Serie A this season (7-4-2) all while scoring 30 goals and conceding 19 goals. These hiccups came to Chievo (1-0 loss) and Juventus (3-1 loss).  Since the loss to three-time Serie A holders Juventus, they've gone undefeated in seven straight fixtures across all competitions (6-1-0), with the draw coming just this weekend when they settled on a 2-2 draw to Inter Milan.

For More Action Check this All-Italian Tie Free Soccer Pick

Dinamo Moscow Dangerous Floaters
Many experts would have the Russian side one of the competition's dangerous floaters, but at +2500 to win outright odds makers would have you believe they are long shots instead. It remains to be seen who's got it right.

If there were one thing that goes against this rather disingenuous market assessment it's stellar form in Europe's second tier club competition. Dinamo Moscow won Group E with a perfect 6-0-0 record, marking the only perfect record in group play.  Most notably, they beat PSV twice home and away. Both times by a 1-0 score. They carried that solid momentum into Europa League's R32 with a 3-1 win on aggregate over Anderlecht (drawing 0-0 in Brussels before taking the tie 3-1 in Moscow).

Given their strong form through eight European fixtures, you have to concede Dinamo Moscow appear to be underrated significantly across sports betting floors. Over and above their long soccer odds in Europa League futures to win outright, they are priced as the +450 underdogs to win the first leg in Napoli and, even, the draw is trading on a large +300 price tag. To advance into the quarterfinals, the Muscovites are trading +240 soccer odds. As it is, the tie is firmly cornered in Napoli's camp on -333 future odds to advance into the quarterfinals.


Soccer Betting Verdict
It must be obvious to the discerning soccer bettor that both teams come into this R16 tie on good form in domestic and European action, and both reach the R16 behind solid play on both sides of the ball. In most cases that would have served up a much closer soccer betting market for this tie. Instead, we have what appears to be a soccer betting market heavily biased towards Napoli for no other reason than conventional perceptions. A notion about these respective teams and the leagues they play in, rather than anything tangible.

For that reason alone we're not so receptive to Napoli and their overrated soccer odds. To be fair, backing the Muscovites to win outright in the first leg at +450 may also require some balls, tempting though it is. Rather we fancy the safer option for our recommended soccer picks, which is backing the Muscovites in double chance betting at +120 to either win or draw .

Soccer Free Picks: Dinamo Moscow to win or draw at +120

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