The NASCAR Cup Series will continue with the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this Sunday in New Hampshire, and the the betting odds have been released by top sportsbooks. Here is a guide of everything you’ll want to know about the race and analysis of how to approach it as a bettor.
NASCAR Cup Series: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Sunday, July 18, 2021 – 03:00 PM EDT at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
NASCAR’s Cup Series will resume on this upcoming Sunday when the New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 in Loudon, New Hampshire.
Drivers competing in this racing event must complete a total of 301 laps. There are three stages for this event. Stage 1 consists in 75 laps. Stage 2 requires 110 laps. Stage 3 requires 116 laps.
Just like in previous weeks, an entry list has been published for this event. 37 cars are posted on this entry list. So barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know who will compete in this event. You can expect all of the usual suspects.
This is a track that is very familiar to NASCAR drivers. Therefore, there will be no practice or qualifying for this event. When predicting the outcome of the race, we won’t rely on seeing drivers on the track in practice or qualifying.
But that’s no problem for our sports betting because we can look at driver history at this track, at drivers’ recent form, how they’ve been performing on the track.
New Hampshire’s track is characterized by long straightaways and tight turns. This particular constellation of straightaways and turns requires skillful use of the brake.
Tires are also relatively important because of the negligible load generated by the track. This negligible load is a consequence of its relative flatness. When I say that this track is flat, I am talking about its lack of banking. The amount of banking varies at each turn. The range is 2-7 degrees of banking at a given turn. This is much less banking than we’ve seen at other tracks.
So, more grip will need to come from the tires because tires can enhance grip for a driver’s car. This characteristic lack of grip makes the track difficult for drivers. Having one’s car slide around is antithetical to any driver’s ideal of handling.
As for New Hampshire’s straightaways, less banking is normal, but it is still a negligible amount. The straightaways here are banked at one degree. Each lap requires 1.058 miles. So in completing 301 laps, drivers will have completed 318.458 miles.
Drivers To Avoid
Be sure to avoid investing in Kurt Busch in any form or fashion. Recency bias — a psychological phenomenon whereby people attach excessive significance to recent events — may induce you to want to trust Kurt Busch this weekend.
While he did win the last race at Atlanta, Atlanta has been one of his better tracks historically. So it’s not too surprising that he performed well there.
But New Hampshire is not one of his better tracks, historically speaking. Whereas his average starting position at New Hampshire is 11, his average finishing position is 16.08. So, on average, he finishes five spots behind where he starts here and rarely sniffs the top 10.
With our best bets in mind, Chase Elliott deserves a similar kind of warning. He has been performing better lately, but his last races have come at Atlanta and at a road track. Elliott is notorious for being good at road races and, historically, he is better at Atlanta than he is in New Hampshire. He doesn’t have that much experience at New Hampshire. But he’s finished outside of the top 10 in five of seven tries while finishing fifth and ninth in the two exceptions.
Denny Hamlin may also be tempting to invest in because he finished second in his past two races here. But those two races came in seasons where he was much stronger and much more consistent on the track than he is now, when he’s having one of the worst seasons in his career sitting in 13th place in the standings.
There are drivers out there who show both good form and good history at this track. My favorite guy to invest in this weekend is Kevin Harvick because he owns the best of both worlds.
He owns a strong recent form, that deceptively looks worse than it is because of his unfortunately awful starting positions. Moreover, he owns a strong history at this track, where he’s finished top-5 in six of his last seven tries. During this stretch at New Hampshire, he has three wins.
For our NASCAR Betting Picks, let’s bank on another win for Harvick.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.