Formula1 Tuscan GP: Betting Picks and Race Preview

Formula1 Tuscan GP: Betting Picks and Race Preview
AlphaTauri's French driver Pierre Gasly. (Photo by Luca Bruno / POOL / AFP)

Formula1 Tuscan GP

Sunday, September 13th, 2020 – Race Time 9.10am EST. Mugello Circuit

Race Preview

Lets touch on last weekends race really quick, for anyone who didn’t witness. I do advise checking out the highlights, it was insane. Why was it so crazy you ask? Well what if I told you prequalifying the winner was valued at Formula1 odds of +30000.

Second place would have cashed each way at +6600 and also the same odds for third place. Pierre Gasly was the race winner (the first Frenchman in 24 years to win an F1 race). Both Ferrari’s didn’t finish the race as Sebastian Vettel’s breaks failed and Charles Leclerc had a crash which caused a red flag. Lewis Hamilton finished 7th after receiving a penalty.

Looking towards this weekend’s race we are heading to the Mugello circuit in Tuscany. Traditionally a track that has been used almost every year by MotoGP, this will be the first ever Formula1 race to be held here. Drivers and Teams have said they do not expect this track to provide much overtaking and the race could be somewhat boring but Qualifying is set to be electric.

I still believe we will see some DNF’s this weekend as it is a new track for drivers to learn and a very demanding track, that should separate the men from the boys on Sunday. Lewis Hamilton still has a firm grip on the championship, with a 47 point lead over his teammate Valtteri Bottas.

Formula 1 – Photo Florent Gooden / DPPI

Winning Driver Odds

  • Lewis Hamilton -227
  • Valtteri Bottas +350
  • Max Verstappen +500
  • Carlos Sainz +5000
  • Sergio Perez +5000
  • Lando Norris +5000
  • Alex Albon +6600
  • Pierre Gasly +10000
  • Daniel Riccardo +10000
  • Lance Stroll +10000
  • Rest Of Field +15000

Top 6 Finish

Renault and Daniel Riccardo have started to come into some decent form in recent weeks, finishing 4th and 6th in the previous two races. Formula1 odds at Intertops have Riccardo at +110 to finish inside the top six on Sunday. There are slight concerns that the Renault won’t have the aerodynamics too push to high up the order during the race, and many feel 7th to 10th could be their race peace. The fact is we just don’t know at a new circuit.

Top 6 Finish: Daniel Riccardo +110 With Intertops (0.5u)

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My second selection is Red Bull Driver Alex Albon. He has finished inside the top 6 in 50% of his races this season. I believe his car will suit this track and he has had a lot of bad luck this season. Time for him to bounce back with a top six finish.

Top 6 finish: Alex Albon +110 with BetOnline (1.5u)

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*Race Best Bet

Top 10 Finish

After last week’s calamity I am going back to the well for a plus money F1 play on Charles Leclerc to finish inside the top 10. As bad as Ferrari have been all season (I feel like I say that sentence every week) I just can’t not have Leclerc at +100 (only available with Intertops) to finish inside the top 10. Minus all of his DNF’s he has finished inside the top 10 in 60% of his races. Ferrari are also the only current car on the F1 grid to have tested at Mugello because guess what? They own the track.

Top 10 Finish: Charles Leclerc +100 with Intertops (1u)

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Not To Be Classified

This is a bet I have been chasing for some time now, Romain Grosjean has always been known as the “driver who always crashes”. He even managed to crash into a wall during a yellow flag a few years ago. This is officially the longest he has gone now without a DNF in almost 3 years (7 races, his best record was 9). As I feel we will get a few DNF’s this weekend, I am going to have some action at a nice +250 for Grosjean not to be classified.

Not To Be Classified: Romain Grosjean +250 with The Best Sportsbooks (0.5u)

Fastest Lap

Without getting into too much detail here, I will leave this short and sweet. This is an unknown track, nobody knows what way these cars or going to perform (we have speculations, but not concrete evidence yet). I think we are getting some nice betting value on Daniel Riccardo or Carlos Sainz to set the fastest lap of the race. Both these drivers have the fastest race lap to their name this season. These odds are only available at Intertops.

Fastest Lap: Daniel Riccardo +3300 with Intertops (0.25u)

Fastest Lap: Carlos Sainz +4000 with Intertops (0.25u)

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Total Classified Drivers

Usually I don’t go anywhere near under 16.5 classified drivers, as this means we need five drivers not to cross the finish line. The average in recent years has been 2.5 per race, which is only 50% of what we need to cash this F1 pick in Sundays race.

I think some drivers will struggle with this new track and surroundings, new team strategies etc. I Would be very surprised not to see at least four drivers not classify. We are asking a lot to happen here, although I do like this F1 pick, I am playing it cautious with only a 0.5 unit stake.

Total Classified Drivers: Under 16.5 +125 with The Best Sportsbooks (0.5u)

Race Winner

Mercedes’ British driver Lewis Hamilton. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA / POOL / AFP)

We are opposing Lewis Hamilton for this weekends race (maybe not the wisest thing to do) but I cant have any action on the championship leader at -227. The F1 oddsboard have Hamilton vs the field set at +150 for anybody but Hamilton to win. I think we are getting some value here as it’s a track Hamilton has never raced before and although Mercedes have the fastest car on the grid, we are going into unknown territory this weekend.

Race Winner: The Field +150 with BetOnline (1u)

The Field+150
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