Formula1 Russian GP: Betting Picks and Race Preview

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Formula1 Russian GP: Betting Picks and Race Preview
Mercedes' British driver Lewis Hamilton takes the lead at the race restart in front of Renault's Australian driver Daniel Ricciardo during the Tuscany Formula One Grand Prix at the Mugello circuit. Photo by MIGUEL MEDINA / POOL / AFP

Formula1 Russian GP

Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 9:10 AM EST at Sochi Autodrom

Race Preview

I did say the first-ever F1 race in Mugello wouldn’t disappoint, and how right was I. It’s a good thing we have had a two-week break between GPs because we needed time to recover and digest what the hell went down in Tuscany. It was crazy, it was the quickest I ever cashed an F1 bet.

We had under 16 drivers to finish the race at +125, our ticket had cashed after lap 5. In total seven drivers didn’t finish the race, the most I have ever seen since I began watching the sport. Somehow, someway, Romain Grosjean still managed to finish the race. We will catch him out sooner or later, and hopefully this weekend. Lewis Hamilton came out as race winner (what’s new?) ahead of Valtteri Bottas and Alex Albon.

This week we are heading to Sochi in Russia. Since the track was added to the F1 calendar back in 2014, Mercedes have won all six races, including four for world champion Hamilton. Traditionally it has never been a race I enjoyed, it usually ends up being stale due to the dominance of the Mercedes and the lack of passing opportunities.

However, there are a few bets I have found on the best betting sites ahead of the race on Sunday. What we know is, Ferrari is absolutely finished this season. Four-time world champion, Sebastian Vettel can hardly finish a race. McLaren and Racing Point are still looking strong, and Max Verstappen in the Red Bull is still the best of the rest (although he has retired in the previous two races). Hamilton pretty much has the championship wrapped up, not mathematically yet, but at odds of -2000 that tells you all you need to know.

Winning Driver Odds

  • Lewis Hamilton -250
  • Valtteri Bottas +330
  • Max Verstappen +550
  • Sergio Perez +3300
  • Lance Stroll +5000
  • Daniel Riccardo +6600
  • Alex Albon +6600
  • Charles Leclerc +10000
  • Carlos Sainz +10000
  • Lando Norris +1000
  • Rest Of Field +15000

Ferrari’s German driver Sebastian Vettel. Photo by Bryn Lennon / POOL / AFP

First Car To Retire

This is starting to become a recurring theme these days in F1. Ferrari has now cashed this market three times in nine races. At current F1 betting odds of +550, for them to retire first, that’s plus 7.5 units alone if you bet 1u on this market for each race of this season so far. I can’t trust Vettel or even Charles Leclerc for that matter to bring this car home. Let’s hope we can make it four out of ten races, and cash these nice odds on Sunday.

First Car To Retire: Ferrari +550 with Intertops (1u) (visit our Intertops Review)

Ferrari First to Retire+550
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Top 10 Finish

I am really liking the +100 odds with Intertops for Daniil Kvyat to finish inside the top ten at Sochi. Kvyat is the only Russian in F1 at the moment and he will be trying his very best at his home Gp. We are currently 3-0 in plus money top ten finishers for the season. The 26 year old has finished inside the top 10 in 50% of the races he finished this season, and 25% of those have come in the previous two races. He seems to be finding a bit of form at this stage of the season.

Top 10 Finish: Daniil Kvyat +100 with Intertops (1u)

Kvyat Top 10+100
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Winning Margin

Historically this track has not produced many +5 seconds race victories. Only 20% of the time have ween seen a winning margin of over that span. The only concern I do have with this bet is Hamilton’s dominance this season, five of his six victories this season have all been by more than 5 seconds, but three of those five have seen a winning margin of 5-10 seconds and at F1 odds of +200, that pays off in the long run. I can’t look beyond Lewis Hamilton for the race win on Sunday, and for this reason, I think a winning margin of 5-10 seconds is the best bet for this weekend’s race.

Winning Margin/Best Bet: Between 5-10 seconds +200 with The Best Sportsbooks (1u)

*Race’s Best Bet

Total Classified Drivers

I usually don’t like to lay the juice with F1, but just like I loved the under 16.5 finishers last time out in Mugello, this week I love the over 16.5 finishers. This bet has cashed in four of six races at the Sochi Autodrom, very rarely in this sport do we see under 16.5 finishers happen. Let alone two races in a row.

Total Classified Drivers: Over 16.5 -200 with The Best Sportsbooks (2u)

Mercedes’ British driver Lewis Hamilton drives in front of Red Bull’s Dutch driver Max Verstappen. Photo by JENNIFER LORENZINI / POOL / AFP

Race Winner

I do believe we will see Hamilton storm to victory this Sunday, but it’s hard to back a driver at -250, so I won’t be having a bet on him. I will advise a bet for anyone who is looking to have some action on the race winner. BetOnline is offering odds of +180 for anybody but Hamilton to win. For those of you who are looking for a bit more plus money in the market, Max Verstappen at +550 will usually give you a run for your money.

Race Winner:

The Field+180
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Verstappen to Win+550
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