Formula1 made its return last week, and what an amazing race it turned out to be. The race was action-packed from start to finish and I expect something similar this weekend as the race will be held on the same track as last weekend (just under a different name for legal reasons). Valtteri Bottas was the victor last weekend; can he repeat again this weekend? Or will somebody else be standing on the top step?
Formula 1 Steiermark GP
Sunday, July 12, 2020
Red Bull Ring Track
Although we are only one race into the season, a lot of knowledge was gained from the last race. We know Mercedes are quick (is that even a surprise?); Racing Point and McLaren have lived up to their preseason testing results and proven that they have much better and quicker cars than last season; and finally, the biggest surprise was the Ferrari’s.
They were pretty bad in preseason testing and a lot of people thought they were sandbagging; it turns out they were not. Yes, Charles Leclerc managed to get on the podium but, that was INCREDIBLY lucky, so many things went right for him to get onto the podium.
The Red Bulls were very unlucky last weekend with Max Verstappen having an electrical issue with his car, which ended his race prematurely and his teammate Alex Albon seemed a Shoo-in to finish on the podium and potentially sneak a race win, until fellow countryman Lewis Hamilton knocked him off the track as he was trying to overtake him. Hamilton ultimately ended up with a five-second penalty. Albon ended up retiring from the race soon after the incident.
The most interesting thing we can take from last weekend’s race is the fact that both Mercedes cars were struggling with gearbox issues, can they resolve them before this weekends race? Or will they plague them on Sunday, which could open the race right up?
Winning Driver Odds
|Lewis Hamilton -120|
|Valtteri Bottas +250|
|Max Verstappen +335|
|Alex Albon +2500|
|Charles Leclerc +3750|
|Sebastian Vettel +5000|
|Sergio Perez +7000|
|Lando Norris +7000|
|Carlos Sainz +7000|
|Lance Stroll +7000|
|Rest Of The Field +10000|
Where Is There Value?
I have to admit this is one of the rare occasions in Formula 1 betting that I have found some value on something that is below +400. It looks like either Mercedes driver or Verstappen are the only ones capable of winning this weekend and all three of them would need to have mechanical issues or crash out for anyone else to have a chance of claiming victory.
We didn’t get to see the full power Verstappen’s Red Bull last time out, so we don’t know how strong he would have been towards the business end of the race, but judging by his Teammate’s performance (who hasn’t got as many specs on his car as Verstappen) he would have been right in contention to win the race.
Red Bull did manage to get their strategy bang on with Albon being on soft tires towards the end of the race. I personally think Red Bull is one of the best teams in Formula 1 at the moment when it comes to race strategy, so we have this in our favor when betting on the Red Bulls. For me, the value lies with Verstappen at +335 and I would not rule out his teammate Albon at +2500, both with Intertops.
Prop picks are the bread and butter of making money when betting on Formula1 because you can only have one race winner, but you can have multiple prop bets winning. A prop bet I like to take almost every race is the race winner to come from 3rd or 4th on the grid. This bet can be got at +450 with the best online sportsbooks.
The reason I like to take this bet before qualifying is because if one of the favorites has a bad qualifying they could end up 3rd or 4th on the grid, and if they don’t, we still have the potential for anything to happen.
I like Bottas for the fastest lap at +420 this weekend, available with Intertops. He not only won the race last week but has proved countless times that he is quick at this track, he qualified on pole in two of the previous races here at the Red Bull ring and last week he had the fastest lap of the race heading into the last lap until Lando Norris snatched it from him. I also think Bottas has a chance to sneak pole again this weekend at +185 but it’s just a lean on my end. I expect Hamilton to be giving his all to make sure he is on pole.
Steiermark GP Best Bets
Verstappen to take the race victory at +335 with Intertops is where the value lies this weekend. He should be coming all guns blazing to try achieving his third victory in four races at the Red Bull ring.
For anyone who can bet a driver not to classify, I think half a unit or even a quarter of a unit on Hamilton and Bottas not to classify is worth a small bet. The sportsbooks’ odds boards currently have Hamilton at +800 and Bottas at +750. The team might not have resolved their gearbox issues and it is a bet I am willing to risk at those big odds.
Grid position of race winner to be 3rd or 4th is a must-play this weekend because if we like Verstappen to win the race, he most likely will qualify 3rd or 4th. If he were to qualify in one of these spots and win the race that would be almost +8 units of profit. And, Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 10 is also available with the best online betting sites at +200.