Formula 1 Monaco GP Picks: Can Ricciardo Hold Mercedes Behind?

Jim Makos

Saturday, May 28, 2016 3:31 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 28, 2016 3:31 PM UTC

After an eventful qualifying session in Monaco, Ricciardo placed his Red Bull in pole position for Sunday’s race. How did that affect the betting markets and can odds movement pick the winner.


Formula 1 Monaco GP
So, it’s decided: Rosberg will be starting behind Ricciardo on Sunday, who won the pole position with a stunning lap of 1m 13.622s in Monaco. Great going for the Red Bull Racing team, after the epic win in Spain a fortnight ago. The Red Bull driver won’t have his teammate anywhere near him, though, as previous circuit’s winner, Max Verstappen went into the barriers during the Q1.
Can the Australian driver hold the two Mercedes behind him during the race, scoring a back-to-back win for his team? Will Rosberg and Hamilton avoid costly mistakes, such as the one that took both of them out in Spain in the very first lap, while in front of the pack? Can Vettel compete for a podium appearance with his Ferrari?
That’s yet to be decided in Sunday racing. For now, we’ll take a look at how betting markets have shifted their odds for the upcoming Formula 1 race in Monaco following the Qualifying results.


Ricciardo, Rosberg (P1, P2) Charts
Ricciardo, now the top favorite to win the race, is available to back at 1.90 (-110), the shortest they’ve declined since betting on Monaco circuit became available at sportsbooks. The Betfair chart below shows that his odds bottomed at 2.50 (+150) previously and quickly pulled back. Thus, having that support level failed now, it’s difficult not to back the Australian race driver, even at those short – for an F1 race - odds.

Meanwhile, Rosberg starting next to Ricciardo didn’t convince handicappers to bet on him. In fact, his odds climbed above 3.50 (+250), that used to be the resistance level in technical terms. The upward trend doesn’t seem to have slowed down, even after retracing for a moment there down to 3.50, improving that level’s significance even more. Given the high risk that any F1 race poses to bettors, where everything can chance in a blink of an eye, I always recommend tips to lay instead of backing. So, betting against Rosberg to win the race on Sunday due to the odds’ price action seem appropriate to myself.


Hamilton, Vettel (P3, P4) Charts
Of course, you might also be tempted to bet against either driver starting from the second row. Hamilton’s odds skyrocketed despite nailing it with the third fastest lap time in Q3, possibly due to the British complaining of engine power as his Mercedes was forced to be wheeled back to the pit during the last Qualifying session. Fortunately for him he smashed the competition in his last attempt, but bettors might worried of the car’s condition. Hence, the drift appearing in his betting chart.


Vettel’s odds on the other hand have behaved a bit tricky. While punters preferred to bet on other drivers, leading sportsbooks to push the German driver’s odds higher in the beginning, they eventually changed their mind and brought his odds down to their opening value. Since hitting 10.0 (+900), the moneyline have jumped a bit to 20.0 (+1900) currently and that’s not a good sign from a chart analysis’ perspective.
While I cannot foresee what will happen in the narrow streets of Monaco on Sunday, I wouldn’t rule out a surprise win by Vettel. Therefore, in conclusion, my top three picks for Monaco F1 race are either Ricciardo or Vettel to win the race, and Rosberg to finish second or worse. And here’s a fun bet: no Mercedes on the podium. That’s not such a longshot as it sounds

Free Formula 1 Picks: Either Ricciardo or Vettel To Win The Race & Rosberg To Finish Second Or Worse.

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