Food City Dirt Race Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips: Can Truex Dominate on the Dirt?

The NASCAR Cup Series continues with the Food City Dirt Race. Read on for our top Food City Dirt Race expert picks.

Here are our NASCAR expert picks for the 2022 Food City Dirt Race, including outrights, longshots, matchups, and props (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook).

Food City Dirt Race Picks

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SEE ALSO: Food City Dirt Race Betting Preview

Food City Dirt Race Picks to Win

Larson (+600 via DraftKings)

Kyle Larson's day ended early when he made contact with fellow dirt-track racer Christopher Bell during the inaugural Food City Dirt Race in 2021. Larson is the favorite to win Sunday night’s race for a reason, assuming he avoids similar carnage this time around.

Only a handful of NASCAR Cup Series drivers have logged dirt-racing experience, and Larson is arguably ahead of the rest. In addition to getting his start at dirt tracks, the reigning NASCAR champ regularly runs in dirt events now. Larson won over 90% of all dirt races he started in 2021.

In Larson, bettors are picking a driver who checks all the boxes. He's the best and most experienced NASCAR Cup Series contender on dirt tracks. He also drives for a Hendrick Motorsports team that's won four of the season’s first eight races.

The +600 odds he's getting are a bonus, as that price is much longer than what we saw on Larson in some 2021 races, which bolsters the overall value and outlook here. - John

Truex Jr. (+1400 via FanDuel)

Truex Jr. nearly won the 2021 dirt race at Bristol. He led just under half of the laps, and the veteran recorded the second-best driver rating, behind only race-winner Joey Logano.

The 41-year-old won the Camping World Truck Series race a day prior. He may not have logged the same dirt experience as others, but that might not be a bad thing. NASCAR Cup Series cars aren't designed for dirt-track racing. Dirt racers are accustomed to lighter cars without windshields.

Those forced adjustments could explain why none of the biggest dirt-track racers in the Cup Series won the 2021 event. Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell, the sport’s biggest dirt-track stars, finished 29th and 34th, respectively. Briscoe, another big name in dirt-track racing, finished 20th.

Kyle Larson said before the 2021 race that he didn’t think it would be “like dirt we’re used to,” and that was true. And Aric Almirola told reporters to “think more like Richmond and Martinsville than dirt-track racing.” Adjustments to the track’s progressive banking may correct the issue somewhat, but I don’t expect that to tip the balance back to the dirt aces too much.

Momentum and mispriced odds are other solid reasons to target Truex here. Truex and Joe Gibbs Racing looked great at the three-quarter-mile Richmond Raceway earlier in April. That didn’t translate into an advantage at Martinsville Speedway. But given the back-and-forth nature of the sport in 2021, I still feel comfortable about targeting him.

The books are giving him odds of just +1400, despite Truex’s strong showing here in 2021. Five other drivers have been given shorter odds. That’s a mistake, and the books may come to regret it on Sunday. - Sirois

Truex Jr. (+1400 via DraftKings)

Joey Logano took home the checkered flag during last season’s Bristol dirt race. But Truex dominated while leading 126 of the 253 dust-filled laps. He held on to the lead through three cautions and the ensuing restarts.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to maintain his pace. He lost the lead to Daniel Suarez and never regained it before finishing 19th.

Truex still turned in 39 of the fastest laps during the race. He was also inside the top five for most of the event, including the final restart of overtime. The No. 19 washed up the track from the third position.

He also led 105 of the 150 laps while winning the truck race in 2021, including the final 57 laps. - Villagomez

Food City Dirt Race Longshot Picks

Dillon (+4000 via FanDuel)

Austin Dillon faces the longest odds of those with dirt experience and a realistic chance to win Sunday’s race. The No. 3 team only managed to finish 21st in 2021. However, one could argue that the 2022 Food City Dirt Race will play more into the hands of experienced dirt-track drivers.

That rationale is rooted in the weather forecast. Thanks to rain and even flooding in the Bristol, Tennessee area in 2021, both the Truck and Cup Series races were run on the same day. NASCAR wasn't able to truly prepare the dirt track as a result. The track had been reduced to a single groove and was running much more like a standard NASCAR asphalt circuit by the end of the Cup Series event.

That scenario won't occur this weekend, as sunny skies are in the forecast. The dirt track will receive extensive grooming following Saturday night’s truck event.

Dillon used to race regularly on dirt, and he should be able to adjust quickly. While younger brother Ty Dillon has been given outright odds in the triple digits, backing the Richard Childress Racing team is much more appealing than newly merged Petty GMS Motorsports. - John

Jones (+7500 via Caesars)

Let's target another non-dirt racer in Erik Jones. He's looked solid this season while recording two top 10s for the new Petty-GMS Motorsports team. He's led laps in two 2022 races, too. Jones also looked great at the Clash in the Coliseum.

Jones’ record at Bristol is another reason to back him. He finished ninth during the 2021 dirt race after working his way up from a 24th-place starting position. Jones recorded an eighth-place result during the pavement race after working up from 22nd, too. He owns four top 10s and two top-three finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway, and Jones nearly won during his second Cup Series start here. He led 52% of the laps and finished second to Kyle Busch in that event.

Jones is beating expectations in 2022, and he could end up in victory lane on Sunday. It’ll take a lot more work and a bit of luck for him to bring home the checkered flag, but these odds offer enough value to back him as a longshot pick. - Sirois

Jones (+7500 via Caesars)

Jones recorded six top-10 finishes in 2021, including one at the Bristol dirt track. He advanced as high as eighth place while running 199 of the 253 laps inside the top 15. Jones managed to avoid Truex Jr. sliding up the track, as well as several other loose cars around him to finish ninth.

He had been running well at Bristol overall in his career before the dirt, recording five top-10 finishes over nine Cup Series starts and four top-five outings. Staying consistent with the added level of complexity is encouraging.

His run in the new car hasn't been as consistent. However, he's logged two top-10 finishes in 2022, and a top five in Fontana. Jones also finished 13th in Martinsville. - Villagomez

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Food City Dirt Race Matchup Picks

Truex Jr. (+130 via FanDuel) vs. Joey Logano

Joey Logano surprised the NASCAR world while winning the 2021 Food City Dirt Race despite having logged no previous dirt experience. The weather was clearly a factor.

The dirt track was packed firm with only one reliable groove down the stretch, which benefitted drivers like Logano. Oddsmakers are now pricing Logano as though there's dirt-racing experience on his resume. If Sunday night’s race unfolds more like a pure dirt-track affair, Logano likely won't be a contender.

Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. isn't especially experienced on a dirt track either. However, he also achieved success in Bristol while winning the Truck Series event. If anything, the surface Truex dominated on was better maintained than when Logano emerged victorious later in the day.

The gap in skill set between Truex and Logano is nowhere near as large as these matchup odds are implying. - John

Suarez (+150 via BetMGM) vs. Briscoe

We’ll target the upstart Trackhouse Racing with this play, and I absolutely love the odds here.

Suarez finished fourth during the 2021 Bristol dirt race after running up front all day. He led 58 laps and recorded a top-five result in both stages. In contrast, Chase Briscoe finished 20th without leading a lap.

Briscoe’s dirt-track record gives him an edge among the public. But again, drivers with dirt experience didn't get much of an advantage during the 2021 race due to the nature of Cup Series cars. Both the Generation 6 and NextGen cars weigh 3,400 pounds at a minimum with a driver and fuel, and that’s before replacing the NextGen’s composite parts with metal counterparts.

The NASCAR Cup series’ dirt-track experiment will probably satisfy fans on Sunday, but it will continue to frustrate dirt racers like Briscoe. - Sirois

Suarez (+150 via BetMGM) vs. Briscoe

One of the bright spots of the 2021 season for Suarez was his fourth-place finish on the dirt at Bristol. The No. 99 car was able to track down Truex Jr. and pass him for the lead on lap No. 135. Suarez held on to that lead for the next 58 laps before giving way to Logano in the closing moments of the second stage.

Briscoe’s day in the dirt didn't go as well. The No. 14 ran only three laps inside the top 10. He was also involved in three of the seven cautions. The HighPoint.com Mustang limped across the finish line in 20th.

Both of these drivers have produced a mixed bag of results in 2022. There's a Phoenix win in Briscoe's pocket. His average finish is also 15th, while Suarez sits just under 18th. However, Suarez seems to have a better feel on the dirt than Briscoe, and he should finish higher on Sunday. - Villagomez

SEE ALSO: Food City Dirt Race Prop Picks

Food City Dirt Race Top 5 Picks

Stenhouse Jr. (+200 via DraftKings)

The weird circumstances and track conditions during last year’s Food City Dirt Race led to several surprising drivers securing strong finishes. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was the class of the field among the handful of NASCAR Cup Series drivers with a lengthy dirt-track resume. He finished runner-up to Logano.

Despite both his experience on dirt and Stenhouse's 2021 finish, the veteran still comes into the weekend with potentially profitable odds. He turned in the sixth-fastest lap time of all Cup Series drivers during Friday's practice.

Stenhouse is known as one of the more aggressive drivers, so bettors don’t need to worry about motivation. Unfortunately, the early portion of the 2022 season has been a struggle for him and the newly downsized JTG Daugherty Racing team.

Perhaps a return to his roots and a race in which he scored his best finish of 2021 will be just what Stenhouse needs. - John

Hamlin (+200 via DraftKings)

I’ll listen to Almirola on this one. If this track is more like Richmond and Martinsville than a true dirt-track event, why not target a driver with nine combined wins at those circuits? Hamlin outranks every active driver at those tracks.

I would rather take Truex to win than Hamlin, but the latter's top-five market offers some serious value at +200. He started the 2022 season terribly, but a clutch win at Richmond locked him into the NASCAR playoffs. Hamlin also racked up a whopping 19 top-five finishes in 2021. That's good for a hit rate above 50%, which is all the more reason to target implied odds of 33.3%.

While we run the risk of another Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota underperformance, showings at Las Vegas and Richmond give me confidence that the teams' struggles won’t lead to a doomed season. - Sirois

Chastain (+400 via DraftKings)

Ride this prop as long as it keeps paying off.

The No. 1 car has notched five top-five finishes over eight races in 2022. That includes Chastain's win at the Circuit of the Americas, and a fifth-place finish a week ago in Martinsville. He also tallied runner-up finishes in Phoenix and Atlanta, and a third-place outing in Las Vegas.

Chastain was looking good in 12th on lap No. 52 during this race in 2021 when Christopher Bell spun out in front of Larson at the top of the track. The two slid down and collected Chastain.

The 29-year-old is dialed in now. He’s consistently run up front regardless of the track configuration. Expect him to do that on the dirt in Bristol. - Villagomez

Food City Dirt Race Prop Picks

Ross Chastain top-10 finish (+125 via DraftKings)

Chastain has arguably been the breakout driver through eight races during his first season with Trackhouse Racing. While the highlight was picking up his first NASCAR Cup Series victory at COTA, Chastain has been throwing down strong finishes consistently.

Aside from two races he didn't finish to begin the season, Chastain has landed among the top five in all but one event. Most recently, he ended up in fifth at Martinsville, rebounding after a disappointing run at Richmond. 

Chastain hasn't logged much dirt-track experience. However, he managed to post a top-10 practice time in the first session on Friday before spinning out during the second session.

Other sportsbooks list Chastain’s top-10 odds at -145, which suggests that bettors are getting tremendous value in the plus-money price through DraftKings. - John

Jones top-10 finish (+140 via BetMGM)

Even if Jones doesn’t win, he's definitely a threat to bring his No. 43 Chevrolet home inside of the top 10. His eighth-place result on the Bristol dirt in 2021 shows Jones can handle the surface, and his excellent history on Bristol’s pavement points to more value here than the books would have you believe.

Jones has recorded five top 10s at Bristol over 10 Cup Series attempts (dirt included), and digging into his lower finishes shows he's performed well then, too. He won at Bristol twice over six Xfinity Series starts. Jones also finished inside the top 10 four times, only failing to do so in races when he crashed out. He recorded a fourth-place finish in the Camping World Truck Series at Eldora Speedway, another dirt track.

Lastly, Jones is incentivized more than most other drivers. He needs to race his way into the playoffs on points because Jones hasn't won in 2021. The 25-year-old is currently 16 points out of a playoff spot.

Look for him to race somewhat more conservatively to secure a solid points payout. - Sirois

Logano top Ford (+210 via BetMGM)

Logano overcame poor visibility, multiple cautions, and a field of drivers with far more dirt-racing experience to win the 2021 Bristol dirt race while leading the final 61 laps. It was surprisingly his only win of the 2021 season.

The No. 22 managed to post a second-place finish in Martinsville a week ago, and advancing is difficult at that track. It was his best result of the season, his fourth top 10, and his second top-five finish.

He's hopefully found something in his Pennzoil Mustang that will put him in front of his peers on Sunday. - Villagomez

Where to Bet on the Food City Dirt Race

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