Fiorentina vs. AS Roma Picks: Serie A Predictions & Betting Odds

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, January 21, 2015 7:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2015 7:01 PM UTC

AS Roma has beaten Fiorentina the last 5 meetings in this series, outscoring il Viola, 10-3 in the process, so, is taking the underdog il Giallorossi at +180 worth a look? It seems so.

Odds Overview
Fiorentina vs. AS Roma, Sunday 16:45 (beIN sports USA/beIN SPORTS CONNECT (US), BT Sport 1 (UK), 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): Second-place AS Roma (12-5-2, 32 GF-14 GA) heads to Florence and Artemio Franchi on Sunday to face host and 6th-place Fiorentina (8-6-5, 27 GF-18 GA) in this Week 20 Serie A match between two teams fighting for a top four spot with AS Roma hoping it can catch league leaders Juventus who extended its lead to 5 points in Week 19 play.

Soccer odds have host Fiorentina slight +150 favorites in the Three-Way (Winner) odds marketplace (bet365) with visiting AS Roma an appetizing +180 underdogs and the Draw priced at +225. The Total Goals odds for the match is 2½ Under -121 (Over +105, William Hill) while the Both Teams To Score prop bet has the Yes priced at -137 (No +120, Coral). The Draw No Bet lines for this are Fiorentina -133, AS Roma +100 (Ladbrokes) while the First Half/Second Half result odds for this game are: Draw/Fiorentina +360; Draw/Roma +550; Fiorentina/Draw +650; Roma/Draw +700; Fiorentina/Fiorentina +700; Fiorentina/Roma +800; Roma/Fiorentina +800; and, Roma/Roma +900 (Ladbrokes).


AS Roma
AS Roma (5-2-2 Road 10 GF-8 GA) comes into this Week 20 fixture off a 2-1 win over Empoli on Tuesday in Coppa Italia as Daniele De Rossi scored the game-winner for il Giallorossi in Extra Time. AS Roma (41 points) now sit five points behind Serie A league leaders and defending champions Juventus (14-4-1, 42 GF-9 GA, 46 points) and have allowed just 14 goals in 19 games so far this season, but the Yellow-Reds will probably need to win matches like this one on the road against top 10 opponents in order to have a chance to catch the Old Lady. And, “catching” an Old Lady sounds very easy at first until you realize that Old Lady is one of the best 10 soccer/football clubs in Europe.

Here at Fiorentina, AS Roma will look to Mattia Destro (5 goals, +175 Anytime Goalscorer, Sky Bet), captain Francesco Totti (4 goals, +175), Adam Ljajic (6 goals, +200), Juan Iturbe (+240), Marco Borriello (+240), Miralem Pjanic (3 goals, +275), Alessandro Florenzi (+250), Kevin Strootman (+250), Radja Nainggolan (3 goals, +400) and the aforementioned De Rossi (+450) for scoring. Striker Gervinho is away at the AFCON playing for his native Ivory Coast. The visitors will probably have regular goalkeeper Morgan De Sanctis in their starting XI after using Lukasz Skorupski against Empoli in the Coppa Italia on Tuesday. The il Giallorossi back four on defense is anchored by Ashley Cole and Maicon, and with just 14 goals allowed in the first 19 games of the Serie A season (0.74 gpg), this a team that knows it has to play lockdown defense against all opponents to have any chance of ultimately catching Juventus and its goalkeeper extraordinaire Gianluigi Buffon.


ACF Fiorentina
Fiorentina (3-4-3 Home, 11 GF-7 GA) have rallied from 10th place to 6th after an anemic star in which il Viola (the Purples) scored just 2 goals in their first 5 games. Babacar Khouma (5 goals, Anytime Goalscorer +150, SkyBet) and Colombian winger Juan Cuadrado (4 goals, +240)—whom English Premier League giant Chelsea has reportedly shown some interest in—are the club’s two leading scorers and their numbers reflect the problem for Fiorentina—finding enough scoring. Striker Mario Gómez (-175) seems like a logical guy to help try to solve this problem but the Purples will need to get goals from players like Mounir El Hamdaoui (+200), Alessandro Diamanti (+240), Josip Ilicic (+250), Joaquín (+275), Juan Vargas (+300) and Alberto Aquilini (+450). Making an Anytime Goalscorer prop wager in a match like this where trying to nail one goalscorer is a crapshoot, especially in the often low-scoring and boring Serie A. Gómez would be the choice, but at -175, the price is just too steep for a team which hasn’t scored against this opponent in the last two outings.

Of note, Fiorentina attacking midfielder Marko Marin—on loan from Chelsea—was lent to Anderlecht in the Belgian Pro League on a season-long loan on Tuesday. In its last game, host Fiorentina defeated 15th-place Atalanta, 3-0 as Gómez had a brace and Cuadrado added a PK goal. Fiorentina’s L3 games have all gone over the Total, with 14 goals being scored.


Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
AS Roma has actually won the L5 meetings in this series, outscoring Fiorentina 10-3 in the process so the recent relevant trend staking the road underdog here. In the first meeting between the two clubs this season in Rome in Week 1, AS Roma shut out Fiorentina, 2-0, while the last meeting here in Florence at Artemio Franchi saw De Sanctis and Roma blank the hosts, 1-0, the same exact scoreline from the fixture here the season (2012/2013) before. Overall, AS Roma is 51-57-47 in the series while Fiorentina is 33-30-13 (111 GF-71 GA) against AS Roma here at home. Both teams have score 187 goals against each other in 153 league meetings and this one could be extremely close, with the team scoring first likely winning the contest.

In the end, with five straight wins against an opponent and with better potential scorers on the pitch (Totti, Ljajic, Iturbe, Pjanic, Nainggolan, De Rossi), the gut feel for this soccer pick is it’s best to take a chance on the underdog and well as backing them (AS Roma) on the Draw No Bet line in what should be a real battle in Firenze. AS Roma has enough to win it, but sitting in 6th place and at home, Fiorentina will surely put up a strong fight on its home soil or run the risk of falling further out of position for a potential UEFA Europa League or even maybe a Champions League berth—Fiorentina (30 points) is only 3 points behind 3rd-place Napoli (33 points)—next season if they can find a way to finish the season strong. This is definitely a very big match for both sides.


Prediction: Fiorentina 1 AS Roma 2

Free Soccer Pick: AS Roma +100 Draw No Bet (Ladbrokes), AS Roma +180 (bet365)

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