Finland vs. Slovakia Olympic Men's Hockey Picks: Semifinal a Rematch of Tournament Opener

Playing for a chance to advance to the gold medal game, Finland and Slovakia arrive in their semifinal matchup via different paths. Here are our picks for Thursday’s Finland-Slovakia Olympic hockey clash.

Finland is heavily favored against Slovakia, a team it beat 6-2 to open the Olympic tournament. Finland won every game since then, including a 5-1 win over Switzerland in the quarterfinal.

Slovakia was nearly eliminated by Team USA in the quarterfinal game, but it scored with 44 seconds remaining in the third period with the goaltender pulled to tie the game at two before winning in a shootout.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s Olympic hockey matchup between Finland and Slovakia (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Finland vs. Slovakia Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Feb. 17, 11:10 p.m. ETTV: NBC Peacock, nbcolympics.com, CBC Gem, cbc.caLocation: National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, China

SEE ALSO: All Olympic Picks

Finland vs. Slovakia Odds Analysis

With more recent international success, Finland is not surprisingly favored in this game. Moneyline prices range from -325 at Caesars Sportsbook to -385 at BetMGM. As the underdog, Slovakia pays +285 at Barstool Sportsbook and BetRivers, down to +250 at DraftKings.

When giving a goal-and-a-half, Finland ranges in price between -105 and -120. Slovakia +1.5 ranges between -104 at BetRivers and Barstool to -115 at DraftKings and Caesars.

Most sportsbooks have the total set at five goals, with the Over ranging in price from even money at BetMGM to -115 at DraftKings. The Under costs -105 at DraftKings all the way to -128 at BetMGM.

The wrinkle in the total play is that FanDuel is offering a total of 4.5 at -140 for the Over and +114 for the Under.

Finland vs. Slovakia Picks

• Finland -1.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ????• Over 4.5 (-140 via FanDuel) ???

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Finland vs. Slovakia Predictions

Finland -1.5 (-105)

Finland is scoring on 15.25% of its shots in the Olympics, a ridiculously high rate of conversion, but some of that is due to a power play that is clicking at 36.36%.

Defenseman Sami Vatanen and forwards Valtteri Filppula and Markus Granlund are among the Finnish skaters with NHL experience. However, the team has been led by players that are veterans of European leagues.

That leads to a balanced attack. Sakari Manninen, Miro Aaltonen, and Iiro Pakarinen are tied for the team lead with three goals while Manninen and Teemu Hartikainen are tied for the lead with six points. Thirty-two-year-old goaltender Harri Sateri has a .954 save percentage in these Olympics and has excelled in previous international tournaments.  

Slovakia is the only men’s hockey team that has yet to record a power-play goal, going 0-for-13 through five games. That lack of power play production has prevented Slovakia from getting sustained offensive production, at least beyond the contributions of 17-year-old winger and top draft prospect Juraj Slafkovsky. He has scored five goals over five games to lead the attack.

Slovakia has some players with NHL experience, including forwards Marek Hrivik, Tomas Jurco, and Marko Dano. Defenseman Martin Marincin played 227 NHL games with the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Slovakian goaltender Patrik Rybar has been outstanding, posting a .957 SV% through four games. If Slovakia is going to pull off the upset, it will need a great performance from Rybar.

Ultimately, though, Finland will have enough firepower to advance to the gold medal game and the price is more reasonable when playing the puck line.

Over 4.5 (-140)

Finland has scored a total of 18 goals. It hit five or more goals in two of four games, including that 6-2 win over Slovakia.

Slovakia has notched a total of 15 goals in five games, including the shootout win over USA. It scored five or more goals just once. Catching the lower total at FanDuel makes the Over more appealing.

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Finland-Slovakia picks made 2/16/2022 at 3:01 p.m. ET.