Finding Betting Value in UFC's 190 Main Card

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:10 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2015 3:10 PM GMT

UFC 190 will be headlined by Ronda Rousey as she defends her UFC Women’s Bantamweight belt, but let’s check out the rest of the main card and see if we can cash in our UFC picks on August 1

 

Bethe Correia (9-0, 2 KO’s, 0 Subs) vs. Ronda Rousey (11-0, 2 KO’s, 9 Subs)
Nothing to see here kids as Rousey will walk right through the undefeated Brazilian who has neither the hands nor the ground game to stay with the living legend. However, Rousey may want to prolong the pain as Correia brought to the fore some very personal attacks on Rousey and her family. Though Correia eventually retracted her statements they have nonetheless not been forgotten and for those who are looking for another spectacular first round submission you may want to think again about betting that UFC prop. Rousey is very likely to toss Correia around like a rag doll for a few rounds and then dispatch her when the time is right. Think cat toying with a mouse, and make Rousey your UFC pick.

UFC Pick: Rousey -1300 at BetDSI

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Mauricio Rua (22-10, 19 KO’s, 1 Sub) vs. Antonio “Lil’ Nog” Nogueira (21-6, 6 KO’s, 6 Subs)
These two met way back in ’05 when both were top contenders in the PRIDE organization and battled for three action-packed rounds until Shogun claimed a unanimous decision which proved to be the 2005 Fight of the Year. Much older and no longer the threats they once were the two will get reacquainted at UFC 190.

This could be Rua’s swan song after getting starched in just 34 seconds by Ovince St. Preux in November of last year. Shogun has lost four of his last five and at 33-years-old has the mileage of a man much older. Though Rua is a BJJ black belt you can forget about him using his ground game to get Lil’ Nog where he wants him. Shogun has only one submission to his credit and that happened in 2006 therefore this will be won or lost standing up because Nogueira doesn’t mind standing and trading either.

Although Lil’ Nog is rather long in the tooth at age 39 he possesses a more well-rounded attack and looked solid in wins over Tito Ortiz (TKO) and former light heavyweight champ Rashad Evans (UD) before getting blasted by top contender Anthony Johnson in his last fight. Look for Nogueira to get his revenge in this one and when the sportsbooks begin hanging their UFC odds on this one get down on Lil’ Nog.

UFC Pick: Lil' Nog

 

Stefan Struve (25-7, 7 KO’s, 16 Subs) vs. Antonio “Big Nog” Nogueira (34-9, 3 KO’s, 21 Subs)
Big Nog has dropped three of his last four and at age 39 does not look nearly as capable as his twin brother Lil Nog. Nogueira got pasted by Roy Nelson in his last bout at 3:37 into the opening round and before that fell to Fabricio Werdum by submission in the second. He has been relatively inactive fighting in only three events over the past four years.

Conversely the 7’0” Skyscraper Stefan Struve is entering the prime of his career at age 27 and though he was finished in his last two fights (Mark Hunt – TKO and Alistair Overeem – KO) he had four finishes in four fights prior to these most recent setbacks. Struve is simply too big and too lethal on the ground for Big Nog at this stage of his career. Struve will own a 7 ½ inch reach advantage and I cannot see Nogueira getting inside and doing any damage without first getting throttled. Struve will get back on track while retirement awaits for Big Nog.

UFC Pick: Struve

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