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MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 08: Justin Thomas (L) and Rory McIlroy of Ireland walk down the first hole during the final round of the World Golf Championship-FedEx St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind on August 08, 2021 in Memphis, Tennessee. Sam Greenwood/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by SAM GREENWOOD / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The 2021-22 FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week in Memphis, TN. We preview the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind with our picks based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

Scottie Scheffler heads into the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a sizable lead in the season-long standings and at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Still, it's two-time FedEx Cup winner Rory McIlroy who enters the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind as the consensus betting favorite. Abraham Ancer is the defending champion in Memphis, but he's not in this year's field after joining LIV Golf. Last year's tournament at TPC Southwind ran as a World Golf Championships event. Tony Finau won The Northern Trust to begin the FEC Playoffs.

All but three of the 125 eligible golfers based on the FEC standings are in the field. Tommy Fleetwood, Lanto Griffin, and Daniel Berger are absent and will be at risk of falling outside the top 70 in the standings and not advancing to the BMW Championship next week. Joohyoung Kim qualified for the playoffs and soared to No. 35 in the overall standings with his win at last week's Wyndham Championship.

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Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks).

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds Analysis

McIlroy is the consensus favorite with an implied win probability as high as 10% at DraftKings Sportsbook. Sam Burns, who lost in a playoff to Ancer in last year's WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, is an early value target with odds as high as +3500 via DraftKings; he enters the week at No. 11 in the OWGR and third in the FEC standings. Hideki Matsuyama, who also lost in that playoff and enters the week at No. 16 in the OWGR, has odds as high as +4500 via BetMGM. He's 11th in the FEC standings but hasn't played since withdrawing from the 3M Open.

Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are also apparent values while ranked eighth and ninth, respectively, in the OWGR. They're both in the top 25 of the FEC standings and are all but guaranteed of advancing to the BMW Championship.

Players outside of the top 70 and in need of a strong finish this week include John Huh (71), Gary Woodland (77), Adam Scott (82), and Justin Rose (100). Huh's +20000 odds via DraftKings and PointsBet are the highest of that group despite his T-2 finish last week.

TPC Southwind Course Profile

Par: 70Length: 7,230Greens: Bermuda

Water is a prominent hazard throughout the Ron Prichard-designed TPC Southwind. Streams, ponds, and lakes pose threats to scorecards, while the rolling fairways add a further challenge. Ancer, Matsuyama, and Burns each finished at -16 through 72 holes last year. Forty-five of the 66 entrants finished under par with nine of 18 holes playing below par.

Seven of the 12 par 4s fall in the 450-500-yard range. Four others range from 400-450 yards, with one shorter than 400 yards (395). Three of the four par 3s range from 162-196 yards with a long of 239. The two par 5s check in at 530 and 554 yards.

The most difficult hole on the course in 2021 was the 485-yard, par-4 fifth at a scoring average of 4.217. The two par 5s were the easiest holes on the course and two of the four par 3s played below par.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Key Stats

Strokes gained: approachSG: tee-to-greenSG: around-the-greenProximity: 150-175 yardsPar-4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsBogey avoidance3-putt avoidance

Like last week at Sedgefield Country Club, TPC Southwind will put an emphasis on ball striking with strokes gained: approach and SG: tee-to-green being our two most important stats. Matsuyama, Burns, and Ancer each ranked in the top seven in SG: tee-to-green over four rounds last year. They were each in the top six in SG: approach.

Putting is also important in Memphis with each of the top four in SG: putting finishing T-5 or better in last year's WGC event. Matsuyama (T-2), McIlroy (T-12), and Scheffler (14) all posted good results last year despite losing strokes on the greens.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks

Will Zalatoris (+2600 viaFanDuel Sportsbook)Shane Lowry (+3500 via DraftKings)Mito Pereira (+13000 via DraftKings)

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Who Will Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Zalatoris (+2600)

Will Zalatoris was the favorite for last week's Wyndham Championship but struggled with his driver en route to a T-21 finish. We'll go right back to him at higher odds, albeit in a stronger field, at the more open TPC Southwind.

Zalatoris still ranks first on the PGA Tour in SG: approach and second in SG: tee-to-green for the 2021-22 season. He's 40th in bogey avoidance and third in proximity on approach shots from 150-175 yards. The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year played this course professionally for the first time last year and finished T-8 with 1.11 SG: tee-to-green and 0.95 SG: putting per round.

Lowry (+3500)

Shane Lowry had a disappointing T-83 finish last week but still made his third straight cut after missing the weekend for the first time this year at the U.S. Open. The Irishman is 24th in the OWGR and 29th in the FEC standings with five top-10 finishes through 16 events in 2022.

Despite cooling off since a hot stretch of play from late February through mid-April, Lowry still ranks fifth on Tour in bogey avoidance, 21st in SG: tee-to-green, and 10th in SG: approach for the season. Though he struggled off the tee, as well as on and around the greens last week, Lowry averaged 1.33 SG: approach.

Lowry has averaged 1.96 SG: tee-to-green and 0.77 SG: around-the-green per round across his last 20 rounds, and he has averaged 1.55 true total strokes gained on the field per round across 12 career rounds at TPC Southwind. The former major winner is also second on Tour in par-4 efficiency from our key distance of 450-500 yards.

Pereira (+13000)

Though Mito Pereira missed the cut in each of his last four events, two of those took place in Scotland and another was in his second career appearance at the U.S. Open. A T-3 finisher at the PGA Championship, Pereira has proven he can hang against tough fields and remains 50th in the OWGR and 39th in the FEC standings.

That overweighted recent stretch of play, along with this being Pereira's first professional appearance at TPC Southwind has led to grossly inflated odds for this week. The young Chilean is 18th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 15th in SG: tee-to-green, and T-13 in SG: approach for the season. Even amid his poor recent run, Pereira has averaged 1.03 SG: approach across his past 20 rounds to rank fifth in this field in that category.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship picks made on 8/8/2022 at 2 p.m. ET.