Favorite Wins 6th Straight Kentucky Derby with Justify, Let the Triple Crown Talk Begin

Kevin Stott

Sunday, May 6, 2018 5:12 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 6, 2018 5:12 PM UTC

The late money on My Boy Jack and the rain were the big stories on Kentucky Derby Day morning, but by sunset it was all about the favorite Justify who made it six straight Wins by the Favorite in the Kentucky Derby.

When Your Top Two Look-So-Good Horses Finish in 19th and 20th Place in the Kentucky Derby...

Signs of trouble first emerged on Friday when NBC expert Randy Moss said that Mendelssohn was “...a toss” (throw-out) and then real harbinger (in sequins) of things to come was when the personalities on NBC were making their Kentucky Derby winner picks and Johnny Weir was the only one on UAE Derby-winner Mendelssohn, who only finished 73¼ lengths back from winner Justify and probably wants to be on the next fricking flight back to Ireland after traveling 26,096 miles just to have mud kicked up in his equine face and finish last in the most important Horse Race of the gosh darn year. That’s certainly no way to treat foreigners, Bubba. But it is just that, a horse race—animals running fast around an oval track—and morning line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia got it right, making the Bob Baffert-trained Justify the 3/1 favorite with the public betting him down to 5/2 by post time in the muddy and rainy Off track that was Churchill Downs on Saturday. The other horse who looked promising and seemed to provide some perceived value to my now numb skull was Arkansas Derby-winner Magnum Moon, but he was just lucky that Mendelssohn made the trip across the pond as he finished in 19th but still 23¾ lengths ahead of him. No glue jokes.

So two $10 Win bets on Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon had slightly less chance than the Exotics tied to either one winning, so the $2 Win bet on Vino Rosso (9th place) was actually the best bet made in a trip to the sportsbook which would have been better if the car was aimed at Capriotti’s or a pizza place. It’s probably even harder to lose $27 on the evil Video Poker machines slower than the break-neck speed my Derby Day wagers were sucked into the pool as the first quarter-mile was fast but provided no route for either horse who would have never won even on their best day or a dry track. It’s back to MLB, NHL and Soccer where there are no carrots and ovals and where the low-scoring games between two teams make it easier to handicap what might actually happen at a Home site on a given day. And, massive respect to NBC’s crack Horse handicapper (and former NHL star) Eddie Olczyk who offered up the 5, 6 and 7 as his picks for the Derby and who suggested to box them.

2018 Kentucky Derby Final Order

Post Position—Horse (Morning Line Odds, Closing Odds) Lengths Back, Saddlecloth #

1—Justify (3/1, 5/2) ΩΩ, #7

2—Good Magic (12/1, 9/1) 2½, #6

3—Audible (8/1, 7/1) 2½, #5

4—Instilled Regard (50/1, 91/1) 4¼, #15

5—My Boy Jack (30/1, 6/1) 7, #10

6—Bravazo (50/1, 68/1) 8, #13

7—Hofburg (20/1, 27/1) 8¾, #9

8—Lone Sailor (50/1, 23/1) 9¼, #8

9—Vino Rosso (12/1, 14/1) 10½, #18

10—Solomini (30/1, 66/1) 11, #17

11—Firenze Fire (50/1, 57/1) 23½, #1

12—Bolt d’Oro (8/1, 8/1) 24¼, #12

13—Flameaway (30/1, 41/1) 30½, #4

14—Enticed (30/1, 53/1) 34¾, #14

15—Promises Fulfilled (30/1, 46/1) 39¾, #3

16—Free Drop Billy (30/1, 43/1) 41, #16

17—Noble Indy (30/1, 59/1) 42¼, #17

18— Combatant (50/1, 72/1) 42¾, #18

19—Magnum Moon (6/1, 13/1) 49½, #16

20—Mendelssohn (5/1, 6/1) 73¼, #14

11 Things Noticed About the 144th Runnings of the Lilies and the Roses

1—2018 winner Justify (2:04.20) was actually slower (mud) than 2017 winner Always Dreaming (2:03.59).

2—Bolt d’Oro’s odds opened at 8/1 and closed at 8/1.

3—My Boy Jack opened as a 30/1 morning line favorite and was bet up to 5/1 on late Friday and early Saturday money before closing at 6/1 before post time.

4—The Curse of Apollo is now dead (no 2-year-old to win Derby).

5—People really have sleek and sporty rainwear these crazy days.

6—Justify was at +350 to win the Preakness Stakes before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday (Bovada) and +150 after he won.

7—Justify was at +850 to win the Triple Crown before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday (Bovada) and at +300 after he won.

8—The gap between the 10th-place finisher (11 lengths behind Justify) and the 11th-place finisher (23½ lengths behind Justify) was a huge 12½ lengths.

9—Over 113,000 attended the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday, the 5th-largest crowd in history for the big 3-year-old Filly race—and one in which we provided you the winner in Monomoy Girl (5/2, paid $7.20).

10—There is always one damn horse (Promises Fulfilled) that messes up everyone’s Exotics and to whom the sportsbooks probably send sugar cubes to as a reward.

11—The Favorite has W6 straight Kentucky Derbys now. The last time the Favorite W6 straight Derbys was back in 1891-1896. The first Hershey bar was made in 1900.

2018 Preakness Stakes Futures Odds

Justify +150

Audible +450

Good Magic +650

Magnum Moon +1400

Bolt d’Oro +1600

Greyvitos +1600

Runaway Ghost +1600

Telekinesis +1800

Vino Rosso +2000

Machismo +2200

Diamond King +2500

Mendelssohn +2500

My Boy Jack +2500

Enticed +3300

Hofburg +3300

Noble Indy +3300

Solomini +3300

Upcoming 2018 Horse Racing Calendar

The Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland

Saturday, May 19 (NBC)

Belmont Stakes

Belmont Park, Elmont, New York

Saturday, June 9, (NBC)

Breeders’ Cup World Championships

Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Friday-Saturday November 2-3 (NBC, NBCSN)

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What a champion! Let's watch it again....pic.twitter.com/x3Bet8DkP3

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 5, 2018
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2018 TRIPLE CROWN PICK: Justify to win Triple Crown 3/1Best Line Offered: at BovadaShare your thoughts about the Kentucky Derby on SBR's Forum
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