Jordan’s WNBA Picks 10-15-1
New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury
The New York Liberty are not having a great season, but over the last week to 10 days they have been playing a lot better, but the WNBA Odds have yet to take notice it seems. New York is a pretty reasonable underdog on Friday, but the odds have shortened since they opened, losing a lot of the value of taking the points.
Instead, I’m looking at the first half odds for my pick and I think I’ve found one that might go under the radar. The first half total of this one is still well under 80 points and even under 79 points at some shops. I’m attacking the over for a couple of reasons.
The first is the Liberty. Over their last three games, they are posting a first-half defensive rating of 82.8. However, while impressive, the lack of a sample size and the quality of their last three opponents are definitely questionable.
However, they have also averaged 97.5 points per 100 possessions in their last three first halves. If that holds true on Friday night, they could put up some points against this Mercury defense.
Phoenix has also been putting up some nice offensive numbers lately. Over their last three games, they are averaging 107.6 points per 100 possessions in the first half and that’s not even the best part. At home this season, Phoenix is allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half, while scoring 111.
Phoenix will still be without Diana Taurasi as well, so the Liberty have some room to score on Phoenix in this one. Considering the Liberty are still allowing 109 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their road games, I like taking the over at 78.5 in the first half before it goes well above 80.
My Pick: Over 1H
Best Line Offered: BetOnline
Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces
Another first-half value comes in the nightcap out in Vegas, where the Aces welcome in one of the hottest teams in the league, the Washington Mystics. Washington just keeps mowing other teams down lately and the Aces are a nice test for Washington to see if they are truly one of the top teams in the league.
That may mean defense is a little more amped up tonight, but I think it could go in the other direction, at least in the first half. The Aces are playing at the fastest first half pace of any team, running at 103.9 possessions per game.
Las Vegas also jumps up to a first-half pace of 105 when they play at home while averaging 108.3 points per 100 possessions in the first 20 minutes of their home games.
The Vegas defense is very good, but they may not have everything they need to slow down Elena Delle-Donne and the Mystics’ guards. Washington 119.7 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their games this season, while their pace jumps up a bunch when they play on the road in the first half.
I also mentioned how hot they are lately. Washington is averaging a scorching 120.5 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their last five games, in which they are 5-0.
I see defense engaging more in the second half of this one. With the Summer League in town and extra eyes on this game potentially, these women will likely want to put on a show. That could mean fast-paced offense with little defense in the first 20 minutes. While it’s not as good of a value as the Liberty and Mercury first half over, I still love the over here between these two offensive powerhouses.
My Pick: OVER 1H
Best Line Offered: Bovada