Expert Picks for UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano / Ellenberger vs. Koscheck

Swinging Johnson

Monday, February 9, 2015 8:14 PM GMT

The UFC Middleweight title fight has been scrapped due to injuries but let’s take a look at the UFC odds on two other fights and see if we can cash in our UFC picks.

The Injury Bug Bites Again
As any fan of the UFC is aware, middleweight champ Chris Weidman got bit first by the injury bug scrapping his title match with Vitor Belfort and then Yancy Medeiros went down with a foot injury only to be replaced by Gleison Tibau. And in the midst of all this pain and suffering there are rumors that Anderson Silva tested positive for steroids tainting his recent victory over Nick Diaz.

But our job is not to castigate the UFC’s PPV card but to make money off of it with our UFC 184 picks. Let’s take a peek at a few of the bouts on the main card and try to formulate a winning strategy based on the UFC odds that the offshore sportsbooks are offering.

 

Ronda Rousey (10-0, 2 KO’s, 8 Subs) vs. Cat Zingano (9-0, 5 KO’s, 3 Subs)
Many believe the only chance Cat Zingano has in this matchup against the inveterate UFC Bantamweight champion is to stand and trade as long as Rousey will allow. I’ve got news for you – Ronda Rousey is now a bona fide killer with her fists. Two fights ago she TKO’ed Sara McMann in the first round and followed that up in her last match with a hip toss of Alexis Davis succeeded by a fusillade of right hooks to her exposed face on the mat. Davis was rendered helpless and the referee smartly intervened before it turned gory. That entire series of events took only 16 seconds from start to finish.

Cat Zingano’s strategy will be to stand and trade as her boxing skills should seemingly allow her to rough up Rousey but that simply will not happen. Once Zingano feels the sting of Rousey’s fistic power you can be certain that she will take refuge on the mat and pray that her elite wrestling skills will somehow mitigate Rousey’s preternatural brand of judo and grappling.

There isn’t a woman alive at 135 pounds who can defeat Rowdy Ronda and the only fighter left is Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos who is the Invicta FC Featherweight champ currently mashing all contenders at 145. Eventually Rousey’s time may come but that time is not now.

UFC Pick: Rousey -800 (in a parlay).

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Jake Ellenberger (29-9, 18 KO’s, 5 Subs) vs. Josh Koscheck (17-8, 5 KO’s, 5 Subs)
A few years ago, okay maybe more than a few, this fight would be a headliner but these once-promising welterweights have now lost three fights in a row but both have been granted a stay of termination by the UFC’s head shot caller Dana White. It’s a good thing because he needs all the household names he can get for this card.

Dana White wisely surmised that Ellenberger and Koscheck had to be granted a little leeway due to the caliber of competition they have bowed to recently. Ellenberger was pitted against a Murderer’s Row of welterweights in losing to a pair of supremely talented young guns in Rory McDonald and Kelvin Gastelum while wedged in between those bouts was a scrap with the current UFC Welterweight king Robbie Lawler who TKO’ed Ellenberger in the third round.

Similarly, Koscheck has experienced a terrifying trifecta in losing to recently dethroned welterweight champion Johny Hendricks, current welterweight champ Robbie Lawler and most recently to big banger Tyron Woodley. Not exactly a walk in the park for a 37-year-old veteran with little tread left on the tire.

Let’s face facts. Josh Koscheck is essentially semi-retired after being away from the Octagon for almost a year and a half. He’s got one UFC payday left with Ellenberger, and his 18 KO’s, who will knock him silly. When the UFC odds are released make sure you pounce on Jake Ellenberger.

UFC Pick: Jake Ellenberger