Exotic Betting Options for Your World Cup Finals Picks

Nila Amerova

Friday, July 11, 2014 7:15 AM GMT

Friday, Jul. 11, 2014 7:15 AM GMT

With just two sleeps left before the hyped-up showdown between Germany and Argentina at the World Cup finals, we look to the healthy odds buffet laid out before us across all sportsbook platforms in search of the tastiest morsels with which World Cup bettors can maximise their betting thrills. 

                

More than just match betting
Germany head into the Sunday’s showdown as the favourites at +130 to win outright while Argentina are listed as the underdogs, to some World Cup fans, disingenuously so at +250. Meanwhile, the draw is trading at +225, a smidgen less than Argentina’s odds to win in regulation time.

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To glance at past results is to discover Germany have the upper hand, having beaten Argentina in their last three meetings at the finals. In 1990, Germany beat Argentina in the final 1-0. In 2006, they pushed past Argentina 4-2 on penalties in the quarterfinals after the match ended on a 1-1 draw. In 2010, Germany deposited their best performance to date, a match that saw Thomas Muller open the scoring in the third minute and Miroslav Klose add a brace in the second half along with Friedrich’s goal to lift Germany to the overwhelmingly one-sided 4-0 win. On that night in Cape Town, Messi, Di Maria, Sergio Aguero and Higuain (to name a few on the 2014 Argentine bench) were rendered ineffective.

All in all, Germany do seem to be the correct soccer pick to win this match at +130, a fact that is further underscored by their efficient progress through these finals and their gauntlet throwing 7-1 win over hosts Brazil that coloured the world shocked. Still, this doesn’t mean that Argentina don’t have a stake in the outcome. They’ve played sensible football, if unattractive and dull, and, at times, a right yawn. They’re a match win away from winning the World Cup, which with strong fan support in Brazil could see an upset of the odds in order to deliver on their +250 price tag

Whichever way you slice the outcome, there’s value on both ends of the coin, but World Cup betting offers more angles for profit beyond the result. For instance, we have the total markets, double chance markets, score betting, goal scorers and much, much more to consider. So here are a few markets, complete with the latest soccer betting odds trading.

 

Over/Under betting
Odds makers are leaning towards a tight, low scoring affair with the Under 2.5 favoured at -200. Argentina’s matches in the knockout stages have all finished Under 2.5 in regulation time, so if you are backing Argentina to the victory, perhaps the Under 2.5 is an option to consider on your Soccer World Cup Picks. Results in the semi-finals can be rendered a moot point with the title on the line in the final, but one can’t completely ignore Argentina’s stoic defending against Holland. Indeed, in the tournament proper, especially in the knockouts where they’ve maintained a clean sheet in regulation time through three matches. That defending could prove deciding towards the Under 2.5 pick.

Although the Under 2.5 would also be a good choice all the while backing Germany to the victory, the Over 2.5 at +150 might be better suited in their case. Aside from Germany’s 1-0 win over both France (quarterfinals) and USA (group stage), all their matches have gone Over 2.5, with three going Over 3.5 – an opening 4-0 win over Portugal followed by a 2-2 draw to Ghana in the group stage, and the 7-1 win over Brazil. You can back the Over 3.5 at +450 at William Hill.

When going with your choice Over/Under betting picks, it’s worth noting that five of the last six World Cup finals ended Under 2.5, including Germany’s last World Cup victory over Argentina in 1990 that ended 1-0. Only France won the title in 1998 with a healthy 3-0 score.

 

Added Time and Penalties
Another trend is that it’s a 50-50 split between matches ending in regulation time and going the distance. In 1994, Brazil beat Italy 3-2 on penalties after the match ended scoreless. In 2006, Italy beat France 5-3 on penalties after the match ended on a 1-1 draw. In 2010, Spain and Holland settled on a scoreless draw in regulation time before Iniesta scored the winning goal late in added extra time (116th minute), thereby denying Holland a shot at the penalty round. If you are of the opinion this match could also go the distance, you can back Germany at +1100 to win in extra time or Argentina at +1400 to win in extra time. The penalties are trading at +1000, respectively.

 

Scorers market
Naturally, each team’s top scorer is favoured in score betting markets. Lionel Messi is priced at +400 to score the first or last goal for Argentina and at +160 to score anytime, all of which are delicious price tags seeing he’s been almost exclusively scoring for the white-and-blue stripes. Thomas Muller, who’s also been scoring seemingly at will for Germany is a tempting +450 to score first or last and an even better +175 to score anytime. Miroslav Klose, who scored against Brazil in order to become the most prolific scorer in the history of the finals, is tipped at +240 to score anytime. Others that featured on the Brazil trouncing and notionally could continue on good form into the grand finale include Andre Schurrle (+300 anytime), Kroos (+650 anytime) and Samir Khedira (+1000 anytime).

 

Other markets: There are loads of other markets to consider, too many for the scope of this column, but we’ll rundown a few. Predicting the score is one of the toughest, but if we take a page from Argentina’s last few matches the 1-0 score to Argentina at +650 is an option if you are backing the Albiceleste to win. A similar score for Germany is going at +500.

If Die Mannschaft stay true to form, it’s more likely than not there will be more goals in this match than odds makers are expecting as evinced by totals betting markets. A 2-0 or 2-1 win is trading at +850 and +900, respectively. A more one-sided score line, such as 4-0 is going for +5000, which was the outcome of their last clash in the finals, incidentally. Staggering blowouts such as a 5-0 score line is trading at +12500 and 5-1 at +15000 and 5-2 +25000. It’s interesting to note, sportsbooks aren’t even contemplating a 7-1 score line, as it would beggar belief.

 

Half time/full time betting offers various options such as draw-Germany win at +400 or draw- Argentina win at +600. It’s interesting to note that Germany to win both halves and both halves to end on a draw are priced identically at +300. Could it be we are in for a dramatic showdown in the finale, with added time and possibly penalties?

World Cup Betting Verdict: As you can see, there are endless options with which to maximise your World Cup betting profits one last time. For our money, we fancy Germany to win at +130. We won’t mind even if it goes to extra time or penalties where the win in each case is attractively priced at +1100 or +1000.  It would be a fitting end to this delightfully dramatic World Cup finals, don’t you think? 

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